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Judgment under uncertainty: Evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Lev R. Ginzburg ,
Charles Janson  and
Scott Ferson
Lev R. Ginzburg
Affiliation:
Department of Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794.
Charles Janson
Affiliation:
Department of Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794.
Scott Ferson
Affiliation:
Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY 11733. risk@life.bio.sunysb.edu
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Abstract

The environment in which humans evolved is strongly and positively autocorrelated in space and time. Probabilistic judgments based on the assumption of independence may not yield evolutionarily adaptive behavior. A number of “faults” of human reasoning are not faulty under fuzzy arithmetic, a nonprobabilistic calculus of reasoning under uncertainty that may be closer to that underlying human decision making.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 24 - 25
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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