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Nearly Bayesian uncertain reasoning methods

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 1997

Paul Snow
Paul Snow
Affiliation:
P.O. Box 6134, Concord NH 03303-6134 paulsnow@delphi.com
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Abstract

Subjects are reported as being somewhat Bayesian, but as violating the normative ideal on occasion. To abjure probability altogether is difficult. To use Bayes' Theorem scrupulously when weighing evidence can incur costs without corresponding benefits. The subjects' evident nuanced probabilism appears both realistic and reasonable.

Type
Continuing Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , December 1997 , pp. 779 - 780
Copyright
© 1997 Cambridge University Press

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