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Identifying the most important predictors of support for climate policy in the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 August 2020

MATTHEW H. GOLDBERG ,
ABEL GUSTAFSON ,
MATTHEW T. BALLEW ,
SETH A. ROSENTHAL  and
ANTHONY LEISEROWITZ
MATTHEW H. GOLDBERG*
Affiliation:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
ABEL GUSTAFSON
Affiliation:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
MATTHEW T. BALLEW
Affiliation:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
SETH A. ROSENTHAL
Affiliation:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
ANTHONY LEISEROWITZ
Affiliation:
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
*
*Correspondence to: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA, E-mail: matthew.goldberg@yale.edu
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Abstract

Reducing global warming will require enacting strong climate policies, which is unlikely to happen without public support. While prior research has identified varied predictors of climate change policy support, it is unclear which predictors are strongest for the American electorate as a whole, and which predictors are strongest for Democrats and Republicans. In a nationally representative sample of registered voters (n = 2063), we use relative weight analysis to identify the strongest predictors of public climate policy support. We find that, among registered voters in the USA, the five most important predictors of climate policy support are: worry about global warming; risk perceptions; certainty that global warming is happening; belief that global warming is human-caused; and general affect toward global warming. Collectively, these five variables account for 51% of the variance in policy support. Results split by political party indicate that pro-climate injunctive norms and global warming risk perceptions are the variables that differ most between Republicans and Democrats, accounting for significantly more variance in policy support among Republicans. These findings can inform policymakers and advocates seeking to build public support for climate action.

Type
Article
Information
Behavioural Public Policy , Volume 5 , Special Issue 4: Behavioural Climate Policy , October 2021 , pp. 480 - 502
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

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