Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T23:09:29.522Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Cohort Differences in Mortality and Morbidity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

Carol Jagger ,
Kaare Christensen  and
Michael Murphy
Carol Jagger
Affiliation:
AXA Professor of Epidemiology of Ageing, Institute for Ageing and Health, Newcastle University, Campus for Ageing and Vitality, Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 5PL, U.K. Tel: +44 (0)191 248 1117; Fax: +44 (0)191 2481101; E-mail: carol.jagger@ncl.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In 1900 life expectancy at birth in the UK was only 46 years for men and 53 years for women. Just over a century later life expectancy at birth has increased by around 30 years and by 2007 had reached 77.5 years for men and 81.7 years for women. The population aged 85 years and over, often termed the ‘oldest old’, are now the fastest growing section of our population. For the 1921 cohort only 18% of men and a third of women reached the age of 85 years but for the 1951 birth cohort it is expected that almost half of men and 60% of women will achieve that age. The important question for health care planners and society is whether the large number of those who will reach 85 years in the future are similar in health characteristics to those attaining 85 years now.

This question was addressed by substantive results and by methodological papers in the ‘Cohort’ theme of the Joining Forces on Mortality and Longevity conference in October 2009. Here we provide an overview of the papers, some of which are presented in full in this issue (see Murphy (2009), Di Cesare & Murphy (2009), O'Connell & Dunstan (2009), Forfar (2009)).

Keywords

Cohort StudyMortalityDisabilityDisease
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 15 , Issue S1 , 2009 , pp. 65 - 71
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Äijänseppä, S., Notkola, I.-L., Tijhuis, M., Van Staveren, W., Kromhout, D. & Nissinen, A. (2005). Physical functioning in elderly Europeans: 10 year changes in the north and south: the HALE project. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 59, 413–419.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Aylin, P., Dunnell, K. & Drever, F. (1999). Trends in mortality of young adults aged 15 to 44 in England and Wales. Health Statistics Quarterly, 1, 34–39.Google Scholar
Brennan, M. (2008). Mortality projection using extended Lee–Carter to allow for the cohort effect. Heriot-Watt University.Google Scholar
Christensen, K., Doblhammer, G., Rau, R. & Vaupel, J.W. (2009). Ageing populations: the challenges ahead. Lancet, 374(9696), 1196–1208.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Christensen, K., McGue, M., Petersen, I., Jeune, B. & Vaupel, J.W. (2008). Exceptional longevity does not result in excessive levels of disability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(36), 13274–13279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collerton, J.A., Davies, K.B., Jagger, C., Kingston, A.D., Bond, J.E., Eccles, M.P.F., Robinson, L.A.G., Martin-Ruiz, C.H., von Zglinicki, T.I., James, O.F.W.J. & Kirkwood, T.B.L.K. (2009). Health and disease in 85 year olds: baseline findings from the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. British Medical Journal, 339, b4904.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Di Cesare, M. & Murphy, M. (2009). Forecasting mortality, different approaches for different causes of death? The cases of lung cancer; influenza, pneumonia and bronchitis; and motor vehicle accidents. British Actuarial Journal, 15(Supplement), 185–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engberg, H., Christensen, K., Andersen-Ranberg, K. & Jeune, B. (2008a). Cohort changes in cognitive function among Danish Centenarians — a comparative study of 2 birth cohorts born in 1895 and 1905. Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders, 26(2), 153–160.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Engberg, H., Christensen, K., Andersen-Ranberg, K., Vaupel, J.W. & Jeune, B. (2008b). Improving activities of daily living in Danish centenarians — but only in women: a comparative study of two birth cohorts born in 1895 and 1905. Journals of Gerontology Series a-Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 63(11), 1186–1192.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fiske, A., Wetherell, J.L. & Gatz, M. (2009). Depression in older adults. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 5, 363–389.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Forfar, D.O. (2009). Forecasting U.K. population mortality allowing for age, period and cohort effects. British Actuarial Journal, 15(Supplement), 73–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, V.A., Martin, L.G. & Schoeni, R.F. (2002). Recent trends in disability and functioning among older adults in the United states: a systematic review. Journal of the American Medical Association, 288(24), 137–3146.Google ScholarPubMed
Fries, J.F. (1980). Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine, 303(3), 130–135.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fries, J. F. (1989). The compression of morbidity: near or far? Milbank Quarterly, 67, 208–232.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jagger, C., Matthews, R.J., Matthews, F.E., Spiers, N.A., Nickson, J., Paykel, E.S., Huppert, F.A. & Brayne, C. (2007). Cohort differences in disease and disability in the young-old: findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC-CFAS). British Medical Council, Public Health 7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, W., McGue, M., Gaist, D., Vaupel, J.W. & Christensen, K. (2002). Frequency and heritability of depression symptomatology in the second half of life: evidence from Danish twins over 45. Psychological Medicine, 32(7), 1175–1185.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Llewellyn, D.J. & Matthews, F.E. (2009). Increasing levels of semantic verbal fluency in elderly English adults. Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition, 16(4), 433–445.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Manton, K.G., Gu, X. & Lamb, V.L. (2006). Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the US elderly population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(48), 18374–18379.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Manton, K.G. & Gu, X.L. (2001). Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 98(11), 6354–6359.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Murphy, M. (2009). The ‘Golden generations’ in historical context. British Actuarial Journal, 15(Supplement), 151–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Connell, A. & Dunstan, K. (2009). Do cohort mortality trends emigrate? Insights on the UK's golden cohort from a comparison with a British settler country. British Actuarial Journal, 15(Supplement), 91–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Office For National Statistics (2008). Mortality statistics. Deaths registered in 2007. Review of the National Statistician on deaths in England and Wales, 2007 in Series DR_07.Google Scholar
Office For National Statistics (2009). Statistical Bulletin. National population projections, 2008-based.Google Scholar
Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (1995). National population projections 1992-based. Series PP2 no. 18. London: HMSO.Google Scholar
Robine, J.-M. & Michel, J.-P. (2004). Looking forward to a general theory on population aging. Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences, 59A(6), 590–597.Google Scholar
Sen, R. (2008). An extension of the Lee–Carter model to project mortality by incorporating the cohort effect. Heriot-Watt University.Google Scholar
Social Security Administration (2008). The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds.Google Scholar
Spiers, N., Jagger, C. & Clarke, M. (1996). Physical function and perceived health: cohort differences and interrelationships in older people. Journals of Gerontology Series B-Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 51(5), S226-S233.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Willets, R.C. (2004). The cohort effect: insights and explanations. British Actuarial Journal, 10(4), 833–877.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Willets, R.C., Gallop, A.P., Leandro, P.A., Lu, J.L.C., Macdonald, A.S., Miller, K.A., Richards, S.J., Robjohns, N., Ryan, J.P. & Waters, H.R. (2004). Longevity in the 21st century (with discussion). British Actuarial Journal, 10(4), 685–832, 878–898.CrossRefGoogle Scholar