Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T20:46:46.010Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Influenza Recycling and Secular Trends in Mortality and Natality1

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

Maria Inês Reinert Azambuja
Maria Inês Reinert Azambuja
Affiliation:
Department of Social Medicine, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. E-mail: miazambuja@terra.com.br
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Secular variations in longevity and in population aging are of huge interest to actuaries. It is shown here that temporal changes in mortality and natality accompany the recycling of influenza A viruses i.e., the re-exposure of human populations, from time to time, to influenza A viruses antigenically similar to viruses (H1, H2, H3) that circulated in the past. Mortality (and natality) change as birth cohorts (whole population and maternal) with specific types and levels of vulnerability to influenza A re-infections, acquired through early-life effects of infection with one (period-specific) influenza A sub-type, course through subsequent influenza A environments over time. Epidemiologic evidence of association between secular trends in mortality (and natality) and interactions between birth-cohort and period effects of influenza A circulation is presented both for the U.K. and the U.S. New interpretations to several epidemiologic and demographic observations follow from this finding.

Keywords

LongevityMortalityNatalityInfluenzaEpidemiologyDemography
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 15 , Issue S1 , 2009 , pp. 123 - 150
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Almond, D. & Mazumder, B. (2005). The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent health outcomes: an analysis of SIPP data. American Economic Review, 95(2), 258–262.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Azambuja, M.I. (1995). Rise and fall in ischemic heart disease mortality — it may have happened before. Rev Saude Publica, 29(6), 440–443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azambuja, M.I. (2004). Spanish flu and early 20th century expansion of a coronary heart disease-prone subpopulation. Texas Heart Institute Journal, 31, 14–21.Google ScholarPubMed
Azambuja, M.I. (2008). Connections: can the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic reveal something about the 1918 influenza lethality? Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research, 41, 1–4. http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100879X2008000100001%20&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=enCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Azambuja, M.I. (2009a). Coevolucao da morbi-mortalidade por doenca isquemica do coracao e doencas respiratorias no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, de 1980 a 2008. [Influenza and the co-evolution of the morbi-mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 1980–2008]. Boletim da Saude, 23, 63–77. Article available at: http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.jsp?id=K4781353E8 [Accessed 12 October 2010].Google Scholar
Azambuja, M.I. (2009b). A parsimonious hypothesis to the cause of influenza lethality and its variations in 1918–19 and 2009. Medical Hypothesis (in press, corrected proof published online). DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2009.10.050. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WN2–4XVHS9V-1/2/7907b59600a1986308b6fef71544d1f0Google Scholar
Azambuja, M.I. (2010). Inflammation as the cause of coronary heart disease. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 10, 143–143.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Azambuja, M.I., Achutti, A.A. & Levins, R. (2008). The inflammation paradigm: Towards a consensus to explain coronary heart disease mortality in the 20th century. CVD Prevention and Control, 3, 69–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cvdpc.2008.02.001Google Scholar
Azambuja, M.I. & Duncan, B.B. (2002). Similarities in mortality patterns from influenza in the first half of the 20th century and the rise and fall of ischemic heart disease in the United States: a new hypothesis concerning the coronary heart disease epidemic. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 18, 557–566.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Azambuja, M.I. & Duncan, B.B. (2002a). The authors reply. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 18, 571–577.Google Scholar
Azambuja, M.I. & Levins, R. (2007). Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) — one or several diseases? Changes in the prevalence and features of CHD. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 50, 228–242.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bacon, F. (1597). Essays. In: Vickers, B. (ed.) (1999). Francis Bacon. The essays or counsels civil and moral. Oxford University Press, New York, p134.Google Scholar
Barbi, E. & Vaupel, J.W. (2005). Comment on “Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life-Spans”. Science, 308, 1743.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barker, D.J.P. (1998). Mothers, babies and health in later life. 2nd edn.Churchill Livingstone, Edinburgh.Google Scholar
Barker, D.J.P. (2001). Fetal origins of cardiovascular and lung disease. Dekker, New York.Google Scholar
Barker, D., Osmond, C., Forsen, T., Kajantie, E. & Eriksson, J. (2005). Trajectories of growth among children who have coronary events as adults. The New England Journal of Medicine, 353, 1802–1809.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bradshaw, B.S., Smith, D.W. & Blanchard, S. (2008). A cohort study of tuberculosis and influenza mortality in the twentieth century. Biodemography and Social Biology, 54, 74–94.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brammer, T.L., Izurieta, H.S., Fukuda, K., Schmeltz, L.M., Regnery, H.L., Hall, H.E. & Cox, N.J. (2000). MMWR CDC Surveillance Summary, 49, 13–28.Google Scholar
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (1996). Update: influenza activity — United States, 1995–96 Season. Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report, 44, 937–939.Google Scholar
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (1999). Achievements in public health, 1900–1999: decline in deaths from heart disease and stroke — United States, 1900–1999. Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report, 48, 649–656.Google Scholar
Chen, H.D., Fraire, A.E., Joris, I., Welsh, R.M. & Selin, L.K. (2003). Specific history of heterologous virus infections determines anti-viral immunity and immunopathology in the lung. American Journal of Pathology, 163, 1341–1355.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Collins, S. & Lehman, J. (1951). Trends and epidemics of influenza and pneumonia. Public Health Reports, 66, 1467–1522.Google ScholarPubMed
Collins, S.D. & Lehman, J. (1953). Excess deaths from influenza and pneumonia and from important chronic diseases during epidemic periods, 1918–1951. Public Health Monograph No. 10; Public Health Service Pub No. 213. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Available at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13100561 [Accessed 12 October 2010].Google Scholar
Creighton, C. (1891). A history of epidemics in Britain. The University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Davenport, F.M., Minuse, E., Hennessy, A.V. & Francis, T. Jr (1969). Interpretations of influenza antibody patterns of Man. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 41, 453–460.Google ScholarPubMed
Davey-Smith, G. (2002). Commentary: Behind the broad street pump: aetiology, epidemiology and prevention of cholera in mid-19th century Britain. International Journal of Epidemiology, 31, 920–932.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davey-Smith, G. (2007). Assessing intrauterine influences on offspring health outcomes: can epidemiological studies yield robust findings? Basic and Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology, 102, 245–256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davey-Smith, G. & Kuh, D. (2001). Commentary: William Ogilvy Kermack and the childhood origins of adult health and disease. International Journal of Epidemiology, 30, 696–703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davey-Smith, G. & Lynch, J. (2004). Commentary: Social capital, social epidemiology and disease aetiology. International Journal of Epidemiology, 33, 1–9.Google Scholar
Davidson, A.R. & Reid, A.R. (1927). On the calculation of rates of mortality. Transactions Faculty of Actuaries, 11, 183–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Derrick, V.P.A. (1927). Observations on errors of age in the population statistics of England and Wales and the changes in mortality indicated by the national records. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 58, 117–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doblhammer, G. & Vaupel, J.W. (2001). Lifespan depends on month of birth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 98, 2934–2939.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Doll, R., Hill, A.B. & Sakula, J. (1960). Asian influenza in pregnancy and congenital defects. British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine, 14, 167–172.Google ScholarPubMed
Doshi, P. (2008). Trends in recorded influenza mortality: United States, 1900–2004. American Journal of Public Health, 98, 939–945. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2007.n9933CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dowd, J.B., Zajacova, A. & Aiello, A. (2009). Early origins of health disparities: burden of infection, health and socioeconomic status in U.S. Children. Social Science & Medicine, 68, 699–707.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dowdle, W.R. (1999). Influenza A recycling revisited. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 77, 820–828.Google ScholarPubMed
Dowdle, W.R., Coleman, M.T., Hall, E.C. & Knez, V. (1969). Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 41, 419–424.Google Scholar
Drake, A.J. & Walker, B.R. (2004). The intergenerational effects of fetal programming: non-genomic mechanisms for the inheritance of low birth weight and cardiovascular risk. Journal of Endocrinology, 180, 1–16.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dunn, L.C. (1960). Introductory remarks. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 84, 787–788. Article available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749–6632.1960.tb39112.x/abstract [Accessed 12 October 2010].CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finch, C.E. & Crimmins, E.M. (2004). Inflammatory exposure and historical changes in human life- spans. Science, 305, 1736–1739.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Finkelman, B.S., Viboud, C., Koelle, K., Ferrari, M.J., Bharti, N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2007). Global patterns in seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and B from 1997 to 2005: viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients. PLoS One, 12, 1–10.Google Scholar
Fleck, L. (1935). Genesis and development of a scientific fact. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1979.Google Scholar
Francis, T. Jr, Davenport, F.M. & Hennessy, A.V. (1953). A serological recapitulation of human infection with different strains of influenza virus. Transactions of the Association of American Physicians, 66, 231–239.Google ScholarPubMed
Gluckman, P.D. & Hanson, M.A. (eds) (2006). Developmental origins of health and disease. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, S.J. (1995). “What is Life” as a problem in history. In: Murphy, M.P. & O'Neill, L.A.J. (eds.). What is Life? The next fifty years. Cambridge University Press, 25–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gould, S.J. (1996). Full house: the spread of excellence from Plato to Darwin. Harmony Books, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Griffith, G.W., Adelstein, A.M., Lambert, P.M. & Weatherall, J.A. (1972). Influenza and infant mortality. British Medical Journal, 3(826), 553–556.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Human Mortality Database (2009). US births. http://www.mortality.org/cgibin/hmd/country.php?cntr=U.SA&level=1, last access Nov 18, 2009. Original data sources. http://www.mortality.org/hmd/U.S.A/DOCS/ref.pdfGoogle Scholar
Joris, I., Welsh, R.M. & Selin, L.K. (2003). Specific history of heterologous virus infections determines anti-viral immunity and immunopathology in the lung. American Journal of Pathology, 163, 1341–1355.Google Scholar
Kermack, W.O., McKendrick, A.G. & McKinley, P.L. (1934). Death rates in Great Britain and Sweden: some general regularities and their significance. Lancet, 226, 698–703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kilbourne, E.D. (2006). Influenza pandemics of the 20th century. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12, 9–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knauth, D.R. (2008). Beyond method: constructing “antropoepidemiological” methods. Ciencia e Saude Coletiva, 13, 711.Google Scholar
Kuhn, T. (1996). The structure of scientific revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langford, C. (2002). The age-pattern of mortality in the 1918–19 influenza pandemic: an attempted explanation based on data for England and Wales. Medical History, 46, 1–20.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lawlor, D.A. (2008). The developmental origins of health and disease. Where do we go from here? Epidemiology, 19, 206–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levins, R. & Lewontin, R. (1996). The dialectic biologist. Harvard University Press, Boston.Google Scholar
Levins, R. & Lopez, C. (1999). Toward an ecosocial view of health. International Journal of Health Services, 29, 261–293.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lewontin, R. (2006). Commentary: Statistical analysis or biological analysis as tools for understanding biological causes. International Journal of Epidemiology, 35, 536–537.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Libby, P., Ridker, P.M. & Maseri, A. (2002). Inflammation and atherosclerosis. Circulation, 105, 1135–1143.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lucas, A. (1991). Programming by early nutrition in man. Ciba Foundation Symposium, 156, 38–50.Google ScholarPubMed
Lui, K.J. & Kendal, A.P. (1987). Impact of influenza epidemics on mortality in the United States from October 1972 to May 1985. American Journal of Public Health, 77, 712–716.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mamelund, S.E. (2004). Can the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 explain the baby boom of 1920 in neutral Norway? Population, 59, 229–260.Google Scholar
Masurel, N. (1969). Relation between Hong Kong virus and former human A2 isolates and the A/equi2 virus in human sera collected before 1957. Lancet, 3(May), 907–910.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masurel, N. & Heijtink, R.A. (1983). Recycling of H1N1 influenza A virus in man — a haemagglutinin antibody study. Journal of Hygiene, 90, 397–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mazumder, B., Almond, D., Park, K., Crimmins, E.M. & Finch, C.E. (2010). Lingering prenatal effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic on cardiovascular disease. Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease, 1, 26–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S2040174409990031CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McEniry, M., Davila, A.L. & Gurucharri, A.G. (2008). Early life exposure to poor nutrition and infectious diseases and its effects on the health of older Puerto Rican adults. The Journals of Gerontology, Series B Psychological Sciences, 63, S337-S348.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McMillen, I.C. & Robinson, J.S. (2005). Developmental origins of the metabolic syndrome prediction, plasticity and programming. Physiological Reviews, 85, 571–633.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
National Health Statistics (2009). dataset HSQ4331, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=9526&More=Y, last access Nov 18, 2009.Google Scholar
Olson, D.R., Simonsen, L., Edelson, P.J. & Morse, S.S. (2005). Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102, 11059–11063.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Papua New Guinea (2009). Cholera, dysentery and influenza outbreaks. DREF operation no MDRPG004 GLIDE no. EP-2009–000185-PNG Update no. 1, 7 October 2009. http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWFiles2009.nsf/FilesByRWDocUnidFilename/AZHU-7WM9D8-full_report.pdf/$File/full_report.pdfGoogle Scholar
Potter, C.W. (2010). A history of influenza. Journal of Applied Microbiology, 91, 572–579.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reichert, T.A., Simonsen, L., Sharma, A., Pardo, S.A., Fedson, D.S. & Miller, M.A. (2004). Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–99. American Journal of Epidemiology, 160, 492–502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reid, A. (2005). The Effects of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic on infant and child health in Derbyshire. Medical History, 49(1), 29–54.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reinert-Azambuja, M. (1994). 1918–19 influenza pandemic and ischemic heart disease epidemic: cause and effect? 10th international symposium on atherosclerosis; Montreal, QC, Canada; Oct 9–14, 1994. Abstract 277.Google Scholar
Richards, S.J. (2008). Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 171, 279–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richards, S.J., Kirkby, J.G. & Currie, I.D. (2006). The importance of year of birth in two-dimensional mortality patterns. British Actuarial Journal, 12, 5–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ridker, P.M. (2007). C-reactive protein and the prediction of cardiovascular events among those at intermediate risk: moving an inflammatory hypothesis toward consensus. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 49, 2129–2138.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ross, R. (1993). The pathogenesis of atherosclerosis: a perspective for the 1990s. Nature, 362, 801–809.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schmalhausen, I.I. (1949). Factors of evolution. The theory of stabilizing selection. Blakiston, Philadelphia and Toronto.Google Scholar
Simonsen, L. & Fukuda, K. (2000). The impact of influenza epidemics on hospitalizations. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 181, 831–837.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Simonsen, L., Reichert, T.A. & Miller, M.A. (2004). The virtues of antigenic sin: consequences of pandemic recycling on influenza-associated mortality. International Congress Series, 1263, 791–794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, G.J., Bahl, J., Vijaykrishna, D., Zhang, J., Poon, L.L., Chen, H., Webster, R.G., Peiris, J.S. & Guan, Y. (2009). Dating the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 11709–11712.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Snow, S. (2002). Commentary: Sutherland, snow and water: the transmission of cholera in the nineteenth century. International Journal of Epidemiology, 31, 908–911.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Snyder, S.E. (2007). DOHaD, influenza and economists. The Selected Works of Stephen E. Snyder. Available at: http://works.bepress.com/stevesnyderz/1Google Scholar
Stuart-Harris, C.H. (1953). Influenza and other virus infections of the respiratory tract. Edward Arnold, London.Google Scholar
Sutherland, J. (1850). Extracts from Appendix (A) in: General Board of Health. Report on the epidemic cholera of 1948–49. House of Commons Parliamentary Papers 21: 1273–75, London. Reprints and reflections (2002). International Journal of Epidemiology, 31, 900–907.Google Scholar
Thomas, P.G., Brown, S.A., Keating, R., Yue, W., Morris, M.Y., So, J., Webby, R.J. & Doherty, P.C. (2007). Hidden epitopes emerge in secondary influenza virus specific CD8+ T cell responses. Journal of Immunology, 178, 3091–3098.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tremblay, M. & Vezina, H. (2000). New estimates of intergenerational time intervals for the calculation of age and origins of mutations. American Journal of Human Genetics, 66, 651–658.Google ScholarPubMed
Tuljapurkar, S. & Boe, C. (1998). Mortality change and forecasting: how much and how little do we know? North American Actuarial Journal, 2(4), 13–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tutt, L.W.G. (1953). The mortality aspect of population projections. Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries, 21, 3–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Unal, B., Critchley, A. & Capewell, J.S. (2004). Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. Circulation, 109, 1101–1107.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Viboud, C., Boelle, P.Y., Pakdaman, K., Carrat, F., Valleron, A.J. & Flahault, A. (2004). Influenza epidemics in the United States, France, and Australia, 1972–1997. Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, 10, 32–39.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Viboud, C., Tam, T., Fleming, D., Miller, M.A. & Simonsen, L. (2006). 1951 influenza epidemic, England and Wales, Canada, and the United States. Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal, 12, 661–668.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Victora, C.G., Adair, L., Fall, C., Hallal, P.C., Martorell, R., Richter, L. & Sachdev, H.S. (2008). Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital. Lancet, 371, 340–357.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Warren-Gash, C., Smeeth, L. & Hayward, A.C. (2009). Influenza as a trigger for acute myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular disease: a systematic review. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 9, 601–610.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Willets, R.C. (2004). The cohort effect: insights and explanations. British Actuarial Journal, 4, 833–877.CrossRefGoogle Scholar