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Mortality and smoking prevalence: An empirical investigation in ten developed countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 May 2013

Torsten Kleinow  and
Andrew J.G. Cairns
Torsten Kleinow*
Affiliation:
Heriot-Watt University and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
Andrew J.G. Cairns
Affiliation:
Heriot-Watt University and the Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
*
*Correspondence to: Torsten Kleinow, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, EH14 4AS, Edinburgh, U.K. E-mail: t.kleinow@hw.ac.uk
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Abstract

We investigate the link between death rates and smoking prevalence in ten developed countries with the aim of using smoking prevalence data to explain differences in country-specific death rates. A particular problem in building a stochastic mortality model based on smoking prevalence is that there are in general no separate mortality data for smokers and non-smokers available. We show how we can estimate mortality rates for smokers and non-smokers using information about the smoking prevalence in a number of developed countries, and making an additional assumption about the death rates of smokers. We consider this empirical investigation to be the first step towards a consistent mortality model for multiple populations, which will require modelling of country specific differences in mortality, as well as non-smokers’ and smokers’ mortality rates.

Keywords

Mortality modelsmultiple population modelssmoking and mortality
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 18 , Issue 2 , July 2013 , pp. 452 - 466
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2013 

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Footnotes

1

Both authors acknowledge support from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

References

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