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A Multi-State Model of Disability for the United Kingdom: Implications for Future Need for Long-Term Care for the Elderly

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 June 2011

B.D. Rickayzen  and
D.E.P. Walsh
B.D. Rickayzen
Affiliation:
City University, Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, U.K. Tel: +44(0)20-7040-8499; E-mail: b.d.rickayzen@city.ac.uk
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Abstract

This paper develops a multiple state model to project the number of people with disabilities in the United Kingdom over the next 35 years, thereby identifying implications for demand for long-term care for the elderly in the future.

The model requires three types of data: prevalence rate data, transition rate data and trends data. Recent trends in healthy life expectancy data are used to frame the assumptions made regarding changes in the disability rates of the U.K. population in the future.

Although there will be a large increase in the number of elderly people in the U.K. over the next 35 years, the projections suggest that the implications for the number of elderly people requiring long-term care could be ameliorated by a reduction in the proportion of older people who are severely disabled.

Keywords

Long-Term CareMultiple State ModelHealthy Life Expectancy
Type
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Information
British Actuarial Journal , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , 01 June 2002 , pp. 341 - 393
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 2002

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