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Identifying the Bases of Party Competition in Eastern Europe

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2009

Geoffrey Evans  and
Stephen Whitefield
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This article examines the emerging structure of party competition in the new democracies of Eastern Europe. It argues that the relationship between the social bases, issue dimensions and stability of party competition in countries in the region will vary depending on their differing experience of marketization, ethnic homogeneity and established statehood. In some countries, the predicted framework of party competition will derive from socio-economic divisions and will resemble that found in the West; in other countries, ethnicity and nation-building will provide the principal structuring factors; in yet other cases, where severe constraints exist on the emergence of any clear bases or dimensions, competition will centre on valence issues from which high voter volatility may be expected. Except where Western-type competition obtains, considerable doubts exist about the future stability of political systems in the region.

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Articles
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British Journal of Political Science , Volume 23 , Issue 4 , October 1993 , pp. 521 - 548
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1993

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References

1 Clearly, the party system is also affected by institutional factors, in particular by the electoral system. See, for example, Rae, D., The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1971)Google Scholar; and Powell, G. Bingham, Contemporary Democracies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982)Google Scholar. But causal inference is a problem with these studies as the type of electoral rule adopted may reflect the nature of pre-existing political cleavages; Shamir, M., ‘Changes in Electoral Systems as Interventions: Another Test of Duverger's Hypothesis’, European Journal of Political Research, 13 (1985), 1–10CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Consequently the type of electoral system may have some influence on party competition, but this should not be over-estimated.

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74 In this respect it should be noted that it has been argued that if there is any dimension of ideology that has a clear existence in the minds of Eastern European electorates it is likely to be the division between authority and democracy inherited from the period of communist rule, rather than one based on economic conflicts. See Kolankiewicz, , ‘Parties, Presidents, and Parliament’.Google Scholar

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82 The assignment of countries within this category is to some extent provisional. We assume that countries that have achieved relative macro-economic stabilization (by whatever route), with more modern industry and infrastructure, a more developed service sector, and in greater proximity to Western markets are more likely to attract foreign investment and sustain economic growth. See Kaser, M. and Allsopp, C., ‘The Assessment: Macroeconomic Transition in Eastern Europe, 1989–1991’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 8 (1992), 1–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar; ‘The ECE Economies in 1992’, Economic Bulletin for Europe, 44 (1992), 25–46Google Scholar; Balcerowicz, L., The Transition to Democracy and the Market Economy (London: School of Slavonic and East European Studies, 1993).Google Scholar However, it should be noted that the theory which underpins our views on the structure of party competition is not affected if a country is misassigned. The rules which apply to the category in which it actually falls are then the relevant ones.

83 In Eastern Europe, of course, this is a relative category: all countries in the region contain ethnic minorities of some sort.

84 Again, disagreement may arise as to the categorization of Russia and the Czech Republic as established states. However, their dominance in the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia makes it more accurate to treat them as successors rather than break-away states.

85 The proliferation of parties obtaining seats in the 1991 elections in Poland (due to the low cut-off level for the allocation of seats to parties) may serve to obscure the major dimensions of party competition in that country. This highlights the important distinction made earlier between the issue basis of political competition and the act of voting itself. A more suitable test of the structuring of party competition under these conditions would be an analysis of the dimensionality and social bases of political attitudes, which are less likely to have been dissipated in the way that votes were.

86 In the Czech Republic there has been support for this prediction in the 1992 elections, where preliminary analyses indicate that there is a greater spread across the left–right spectrum than is the case in Slovakia (see below); Brokl, , ‘The Results and Consequences of the 1992 Elections’.Google Scholar

87 Preliminary evidence suggests that such scapegoating could occur within less educated strata, and in particular among those who are opposed to further democratization. See Gibson, J. and Duch, R., ‘Anti-Semitic Attitudes of the Mass Public: Estimates and Explanations Based on a Survey of the Moscow Oblast’ Public Opinion Quarterly, 56 (1992), 1–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

88 This argument is consistent with the rational choice approach to political culture described in Section 1. It should be noted that other writers have also argued that success in achieving democratic or constitutional government in Eastern Europe depends on the evolution of a system of payoffs and sanctions which will make it rational for actors to accept democratic outcomes and the authority of rules. See Przeworksi, , Democracy and the MarketGoogle Scholar; and Elster, J., ‘Constitutionalism in Eastern Europe: An Introduction’, University of Chicago Law Review, 58 (1991), 447–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

89 Poland does have, of course, a German minority residing in the territories annexed in 1945, who have a degree of political representation through Kroll's Ethnic German Party. Nevertheless, their political presence is minimal.

90 Of course, if ethnically based citizenship laws in these countries are fully enforced, the result will be the effective exclusion from the electoral process of the Russian minorities. Party competition in both Estonia and Latvia could then be structured around socio-economic bases and pro- versus anti-market issues. However, the evidence so far suggests that ethnic exclusion is not occurring to that extent.

91 In the Ukraine the impact of ethnic factors is difficult to estimate. In the Eastern Ukraine, Russians and Ukrainians have coexisted in reasonable harmony for many centuries. It is therefore unclear if Russians will form a distinct bloc, as they do in other former Soviet republics. Regional identities may prove to be more salient than those derived from ethnicity. Ukrainian statehood is a contemporary phenomenon and consequently has fewer historical connections with ethnicity than is found in the Baltic republics. In this respect it may be compared to Belarus.

92 Unsurprisingly, at the present time the evidence concerning the normative commitment to democracy is extremely weak. Nevertheless, on two main questions that compare popular support for national elections in Yaroslavl' in 1990 with that obtained in the 1980 US National Election Study, Russians (68.3 per cent; 62 per cent) come out as far less committed to voting in national elections than do Americans (90.7 per cent; 91.7 per cent); see Hahn, J., ‘Continuity and Change in Russian Political Culture’, British Journal of Political Science, 21 (1991), 393–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Gibson, Duch and Tedin's study of attitudes in the Moscow, oblast'Google Scholar finds evidence of support for ‘core democratic values’, but presents no data from Western societies with which to compare their findings; see Gibson, , Duch, and Tedin, , ‘Democratic Values and the Transformation of the Soviet Union’.Google Scholar

93 The scale of the ethnic problem in Russia is such that it may well result in the development of intergroup bargaining procedures through which conflicts can be resolved. This may help to prevent the decline of normative commitment among ethnic minorities.

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