Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T14:08:25.712Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Transparency, Protest and Democratic Stability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 February 2018

James R. Hollyer ,
B. Peter Rosendorff  and
James Raymond Vreeland
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Democratic rule is maintained so long as all relevant actors in the political system comply with the institutional rules of the game – democratic institutions must be self-enforcing. We examine the role of transparency in supporting a democratic equilibrium. Transparency improves the functioning of elections: in transparent polities, elections more effectively resolve adverse selection problems between the public and their rulers. Transparency increases popular satisfaction with democracy and inhibits challenges to the democratic order. We provide a game-theoretic model, test these claims, and find they enjoy empirical support. Transparency is associated with a reduction in both the probability of democratic collapse and of the irregular removal of democratic leaders. Transparency stabilizes democratic rule.

Keywords

transparencydemocratic consolidationleader removal
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 49 , Issue 4 , October 2019 , pp. 1251 - 1277
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota (email: jhollyer@umn.edu), Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University (email: peter.rosendorff@nyu.edu), Mortara Center for International Studies, Georgetown University (email: jrv24@georgetown.edu). We would like to thank Christina Bodea, José Fernández-Albertos, John Freeman, Erik Gartzke, Michael Laver, Adrienne LeBas, Sebastian Saiegh, David Samuels, David Stasavage and Scott Tyson and participants in the Leitner Political Economy Seminar at Yale University, the 2012 MPSA panel on Transparency, Monitoring and Democracy, the 2012 EPSA panel on Democratization, the 2013 MPSA panel on the Determinants of Transparency and Corruption, the 2013 Mini-IPE Conference at Georgetown University, the 2013 Alexander Hamilton Center Graduate Conference at NYU, the 2013 EPSA panel on Regime Authority, the Stanford University Methods Workshop, the 2013 APSA panel on Known Unknowns: Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty in International Relations, and the 2014 Stanford-Princeton Conference on Policy Uncertainty for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Vanessa Hofman for excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are our own. James Hollyer would also like to thank the Niehaus Center on Globalization and Governance and the Benjamin Evans Lippincott Foundation for research support. Data replication files are available in Harvard Davaverse at: https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/85X0HW as well as http://hrvtransparency.org and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000308

References

Adserà, Alícia, Boix, Carles, and Payne, Mark. 2003. Are You Being Served? Political Accountability and Quality of Government. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 19 (2):445–490.Google Scholar
Alvarez, Mike, Cheibub, José Antonio, Limongi, Fernando, and Przeworski, Adam. 1996. Classifying Political Regimes. Studies in Comparative International Development 31 (2):3–36.Google Scholar
Ashworth, Scott, and Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2014. Is Voter Competence Good for Voters? Information, Rationality and Democratic Performance. American Political Science Review 108 (3):565–587.Google Scholar
Berliner, Daniel. 2014. The Political Origins of Transparency. Journal of Politics 76 (2): 479–491.Google Scholar
Berry, William D., DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R., and Esarey, Justin. 2010. Testing for Interaction Effects in Binary Logit and Probit Models: Is an Interaction Term Necessary. American Journal of Political Science 54 (1):248–266.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Stokes, Susan C.. 2003. Endogenous Democratization. World Politics 55 (4):517–549.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Zorn, Christopher. 2002. Duration Models for Repeated Events. Journal of Politics 64 (4):1069–1094.Google Scholar
Broz, J. Lawrence. 2002. Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes. International Organization 56 (4):861–887.Google Scholar
Brunetti, Aymo, and Weder, Beatrice. 2003. A Free Press is Bad News for Corruption. Journal of Public Economics 87 (7/8):1801–1824.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2010. Regime Change and Revolutionary Entrepreneurs. American Political Science Review 104 (3):446–466.Google Scholar
Bunce, Valerie J., and Wolchik, Sharon L.. 2011. Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Casper, Brett Allen, and Tyson, Scott A.. 2014. Popular Protest and Elite Coordination in a Coup d’état. Journal of Politics 76 (2):548–564.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio. 2007. Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1/2):67–101.Google Scholar
Copelovitch, Mark, Gandrud, Christopher, and Hallerberg, Mark. 2015. Financial Regulatory Transparency, International Institutions, and Borrowing Costs. Prepared for the 2015 Annual Political Economy of International Organizations Conference.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dewatripont, Mathias, Jewitt, Ian, and Tirole, Jean. 1999. The Economics of Career Concerns, Part I: Comparing Information Structures. Review of Economic Studies 66 (1):183–198.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry Jay. 1994. Toward Democratic Consolidation. Journal of Democracy 5 (3):4–17.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry Jay. 1999. Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Egorov, Georgy, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2012. Incumbency Advantages in Non-Democracies, working paper, presented at the 2011 MPSA Annual Meeting.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2011. Self-Enforcing Democracy. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (4):1661–1708.Google Scholar
Fudenberg, Drew, and Tirole, Jean. 1991. Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2007. Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats. Comparative Political Studies 40 (11):1279–1301.Google Scholar
Gassebner, Martin, Lamla, Michael J., and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2013. Extreme Bounds of Democracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (2):171–197.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Havård. 2002. Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (5):615–637.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein. 2006. Archigos: A Database on Political Leaders, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein E. 2008. Which Way Out? The Manner and Consequences of Losing Office. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (6):771–794.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders. Journal of Peace Research 46 (2):269–283.Google Scholar
Gordon, Sanford C. 2002. Stochastic Dependence in Competing Risks. American Journal of Political Science 46 (1):200–217.Google Scholar
Grossman, Guy, and Baldassarri, Delia. 2012. The Impact of Elections on Cooperation: Evidence from a Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in Uganda. American Journal of Political Science 56 (4):964–985.Google Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens, Mummolo, Jonathan, and Xu, Yiqing. 2016. How Much Should We Trust Estimates from Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice (Unpublished.).Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2009. Penn World Table Version 6.3. Pennsylvania, PA: Technical Report Center of International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2013. Data Disclosure, Accountability and the Facets of Transparency, working paper, presented at the 2014 MPSA Annual Meeting.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2014. Measuring Transparency. Political Analysis 22 (4):413–434.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2015. Transparency, Protest and Autocratic Instability. American Political Science Review 109 (4):764–784.Google Scholar
Hollyer, James R., Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2017. “Replication Data for: Transparency, Protest and Democratic Stability”, doi:10.7910/DVN/85X0HW, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:gFVhJAJq2tDWsNwHNRDLVg==.Google Scholar
Holmstrom, Bengt. 1982. Moral Hazard in Teams. Bell Journal of Economics 13 (2):324–340.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne, Rueschemeyer, Dietrich, and Stephens, John D.. 1993. The Impact of Economic Development on Democracy. Journal of Economic Perspectives 7 (3):71–86.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan, and Marinov, Nikolay. 2014. Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: The Role of International Election Observers. International Organization 68 (2):329–359.Google Scholar
Islam, Roumeen. 2006. Does More Transparency Go along with Better Governance? Economics and Politics 18 (2):121–167.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989. World Politics 44 (1):7–48.Google Scholar
Lijphart, Arend, ed. 1992. Parliamentary Versus Presidential Government. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J. 1978. Crisis, Breakdown, and Reequilibration. Pp. 3–87 in The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, edited by Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy. American Political Science Review 53 (1):69–105.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew T., LaGatta, Tom, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2015. Elections, Protest and Alternation of Power. Journal of Politics 77 (4):1142–1156.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 1993. A Signaling Model of Informative and Manipulative Political Action. American Political Science Review 87 (2):319–333.Google Scholar
Meirowitz, Adam, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2013. People Power or a One Shot Deal? A Dynamic Model of Protest. American Journal of Political Science 57 (2):478–490.Google Scholar
Moore, Barrington Jr.. 1966. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Morris, Stephen, and Shin, Hyun Song. 2001. Global Games: Theory and Application, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1275R. Yale University, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo. 1996. Illusions about Consolidation. Journal of Democracy 7 (2):34–51.Google Scholar
Olken, Benjamin A. 2008. Direct Democracy and Local Public Goods: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia. Cambridge, MA: NBER Working Paper 14123.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur Jr.. 1971. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Pettersson, Therése, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2015. Armed Conflicts, 1946–2014. Journal of Peace Research 52 (4):536–550.Google Scholar
Prat, Andrea. 2005. The Wrong Kind of Transparency. American Economic Review 95 (3):862–877.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 2005. Democracy as an Equilibrium. Public Choice 123 (3/4):253–273.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, and Limongi, Fernando. 1997. Modernization: Theories and Facts. World Politics 49 (2):155–183.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Rivero, Gonzalo, and Xi, Tianyang. 2013. Elections Under the Shadow of Force, working paper, presented at the Workshop on Elections and Political Order, Carter Center.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan C., and Manin, Bernard. 1999. Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Quiroz Flores, Alejandro, and Smith, Alastair. 2013. Leader Survival and Natural Disasters. British Journal of Political Science 43 (4):821–843.Google Scholar
Scartascini, Carlos, and Tommasi, Mariano. 2012. The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not? American Journal of Political Science 56 (4):787–801.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 1998. What is Democratic Consolidation? Journal of Democracy 9 (2):91–107.Google Scholar
Schmitter, Phillippe C. 1992. The Consolidation of Democracy and Representation of Social Groups. American Behavioral Scientist 35 (4/5):422–449.Google Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Bernhardt, Dan. 2011. Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals, and Punishment Dilemmas. American Political Science Review 105 (4):829–851.Google Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Bernhardt, Dan. 2014. Vanguards in Revolution: Sacrifice, Radicalism and Coercion. Available from http://moya.bus.miami.edu/~mshadmehr/VanguardsInRevolution.pdf, accessed 28 November 2017.Google Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Bernhardt, Dan. 2015. State Censorship. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 7 (2):280–307.Google Scholar
Slater, Dan. 2009. Revolutions, Crackdowns, and Quiescence: Communal Elites and Democratic Mobilization in Southeast Asia. American Journal of Sociology 115 (1):203–254.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2004. Open Door or Closed Door? Transparency in Domestic and International Bargaining. International Organization 58 (4):667–703.Google Scholar
Summers, Robert, and Heston, Alan. 1991. The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2):327–368.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2013. Learning to Love Democracy: Electoral Accountability and the Success of Democracy. American Journal of Political Science 57 (3):685–702.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan W.. 2015. Which Democracies will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation. British Journal of Political Science 45 (4):715–738.Google Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2007. Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions. Perspectives on Politics 5 (3):535–551.Google Scholar
Wantchekon, Leonard. 2004. The Paradox of “Warlord” Democracy: A Theoretical Investigation. American Political Science Review 98 (1):17–33.Google Scholar
Weingast, Barry R. 1997. The Political Foundations of Democracy and the Rule of Law. American Political Science Review 91 (2):245–263.Google Scholar
Wright, Joseph. 2008. Political Competition and Democratic Stability in New Democracies. British Journal of Political Science 38 (2):221–245.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Hollyer et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/85X0HW
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Hollyer et al. supplementary material

Hollyer et al. supplementary material 1

Download Hollyer et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 242.3 KB