Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T17:16:09.236Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Perils of Estimating Disengagement Effects of Deadly Terrorist Attacks Utilizing Social Media Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 January 2022

Tanja Marie Hansen*
Affiliation:
Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
*

Abstract

This comment discusses the impact of social media rule enforcement protocols on research on online data sources. It argues that the conclusions of the article ‘Do Islamic State's Deadly Attacks Disengage, Deter, or Mobilize Supporters?’ concerning the recruitment effects of deadly attacks cannot be assumed to hold when considering the timing of Twitter account suspensions. It highlights four ways in which suspensions can confound evidence of demobilization despite the introduction of control variables and fixed-effects model specifications. All change the composition of the sample in four non-random ways. First, suspending connected Islamic State accounts may result in follower loss. Secondly, Twitter suspension procedures may be tied to account characteristics, such as follower accrual rates. Thirdly, suspended accounts that re-emerge introduce replication bias. Fourthly, account closure may reflect user movement to other platforms in response to changing security environments following deadly attacks. In conclusion, caution is advised when platform-introduced variation risks altering the sample composition in non-random ways.

Type
Comment
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abutaleb, Y (2016) Twitter Suspended 360,000 Accounts for ‘Promotion of Terrorism.’ Reuters, 18 August. Available from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-terrorism-%20idUSKCN10T1ST (accessed 29 October 2020).Google Scholar
Alba, D, Edmondson, C and Isaac, M (2019) Facebook Expands Definition of Terrorist Organizations to Limit Extremism. New York Times, 17 September 2019. Available from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/technology/facebook-hate-speech-extremism.html (accessed 29 October 2020).Google Scholar
Barceló, J and Labzina, E (2020) Do Islamic State's deadly attacks disengage, deter, or mobilize supporters? British Journal of Political Science 50(4), 15391559.Google Scholar
Berger, JM and Perez, H (2016) The Islamic State's Diminishing Returns on Twitter: How Suspensions Are Limiting the Social Networks of English-Speaking ISIS Supporters. Program on Extremism, George Washington University Occasional Paper (February).Google Scholar
Bloom, M, Tiflati, H and Horgan, J (2019) Navigating ISIS's preferred platform: telegram1. Terrorism and Political Violence 31(6), 12421254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conway, M et al. (2019) Disrupting Daesh: measuring takedown of online terrorist material and its impacts. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 42(1–2), 141160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, TM (2021) “Replication Data for: The Perils of Estimating Disengagement Effects of Deadly Terrorist Attacks Utilizing Social Media Data”, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UY3HTY, Harvard Dataverse, V1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huey, L (2015) This is not your mother's terrorism: social media, online radicalization and the practice of political jamming. Journal of Terrorism Research 6(2), 116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klausen, J, Marks, CE and Zaman, T (2018) Finding extremists in online social networks. Operations Research 66(4), 957976.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitts, T (2020) Countering Violent Extremism and Radical Rhetoric. Working Paper, Columbia University. Available from http://tamarmitts.com/research/ (accessed 29 October 2020).Google Scholar
Nouri, L, Lorenzo-Dus, N and Watkin, A-L (2019) Following the Whack-a-Mole: Britain First's Visual Strategy from Facebook to Gab. London: Royal United Services Institute.Google Scholar
Pearson, E (2018) Online as the new frontline: affect, gender, and ISIS-take-down on social media. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41(11), 850874.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shehabat, A and Mitew, T (2018) Black-boxing the black flag: anonymous sharing platforms and ISIS content distribution tactics. Perspectives on Terrorism 12(1), 8199.Google Scholar
Twitter (2016) An update on our efforts to combat violent extremism. Available from https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/a/2016/an-update-on-our-efforts-to-combat-violent-extremism.html (accessed 20 October 2020).Google Scholar
Twitter (n.d.) Glorification of violence policy. Available from https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/glorification-of-violence (accessed 20 October 2020).Google Scholar
Twitter (n.d.) Our approach to policy development and enforcement philosophy. Available from https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/enforcement-philosophy (accessed 20 October 2020).Google Scholar
Twitter (n.d.) Terrorism and violent extremism policy. Available from https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/violent-groups (accessed 20 October 2020).Google Scholar
Weimann, GJ (2019) Competition and innovation in a hostile environment: how Jabhat Al-Nusra and Islamic State moved to Twitter in 2013–2014. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 42(1–2), 2542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, S et al. (2016) Resurgent insurgents: quantitative research into jihadists who get suspended but return on twitter. Contemporary Voices: St Andrews Journal of International Relations 7(2), 113.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Hansen Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: File

Hansen supplementary material

Appendix

Download Hansen supplementary material(File)
File 22.6 KB