LO047: Predictors of treatment failure in renal colic patients discharged from the emergency department

Abstract

Introduction: Most patients with acute renal colic are discharged from the ED after initial diagnosis and symptom control, but 20-30% require repeat ED visits for ongoing pain, and 15-25% require rescue intervention (ureteroscopic intervention or lithotripsy). If patients destined for failure of outpatient management could be identified based on information available during their ED visits, they could be prioritized early for intervention to reduce short term pain and disability. Our objective was to identify predictors of outpatient treatment failure, defined as the need for hospitalization or rescue intervention within 60 days of ED discharge. Methods: We collated prospectively gathered administrative data from all Calgary region patients with an ED diagnosis of renal colic over a one-year period. Demographics, arrival mode, triage category, vital signs, pain scores, analgesic use and ED disposition were recorded. Research assistants reviewed imaging reports and documented stone characteristics. These data were linked with regional hospital databases to identify ED revisits, hospital admissions, and surgical procedures. The primary outcome was hospitalization or rescue intervention within 60 days of ED discharge. Results: Of 3104 patients with first ED visit for acute renal colic, 1296 had CT or US imaging and were discharged without intervention. Median age was 50 years and 69% were male. 325 patients (25.1%) required an ED re-visit and 11.8% required admission or rescue intervention. Patients with small (<5mm), medium (5-7mm) and large (>7mm) stones failed in 9.0%, 14.4% and 9.9% of cases respectively. The only factor predictive of treatment failure in multivariable models was stone position in the proximal or mid-ureter. Age, sex, vital signs, pain score, WBC, creatinine, history of prior stone or intervention, stone side, stone size, presence of stranding and degree of hydronephrosis were not associated with outpatient failure. Conclusion: Outpatient treatment failure could not be predicted based on any of the predictors studied.