LO101: Predicting short-term risk of arrhythmia among patients with syncope: the Canadian Syncope Arrhythmia Risk Score

Abstract

Introduction: Suspicion of arrhythmias among syncope patients is the leading cause of emergency department (ED) referrals and hospitalization. However, the risk factors for short-term arrhythmias are not well defined. We sought to develop a risk prediction tool to identify syncope patients at risk for 30-day arrhythmia or death after ED disposition. Methods: This prospective cohort study involved 6 academic EDs that enrolled adult syncope patients. We collected standardized variables at index presentation from history, clinical examination, investigations including ECG, and patients’ disposition. Adjudicated outcomes included death (due to arrhythmia or unknown cause), arrhythmia or procedural intervention to treat arrhythmias within 30-days after ED disposition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive the model; bootstrap sampling for internal validation and to estimate shrinkage and optimism. Results: 5,010 adult syncope patients (mean age 53.4 years, 54.8% females, and 9.5% hospitalized) were enrolled with 106 (3.6%) patients suffering arrhythmia or death within 30-days after ED disposition. Of 39 candidate predictors examined, eight were included in the final model: vasovagal predisposition, heart disease, any ED systolic blood pressure <90 or >180 mmHg, troponin (>99%ile), QRS duration >130msec, QTc interval >480msec and ED diagnosis of cardiac, or vasovagal syncope [Optimism corrected c-statistic: 0.91 (95%CI 0.87-0.93); Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.08]. The Canadian Syncope Arrhythmia Risk Score had a risk ranging from 0.2% for a score of -2 to 74.5% for a score of 8. Sensitivity for threshold score ≤-1 was 100% (95% CI 96.5-100) and specificity for a score of ≥4 was 97.0% (95% CI 96.5-97.5). Conclusion: The Canadian Syncope Arrhythmia Risk Score can improve acute management of ED patients with syncope by better identification of those at higher-risk for short-term arrhythmia or death. Once validated, the tool can be used to guide disposition decision and can also aid in selection of patients for out-of-hospital cardiac monitoring if discharged home.