LO98: Optimal length of observation for emergency department patients with syncope: a time to event analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Concern for occult serious conditions leads to variations in ED syncope management [hospitalization, duration of ED/inpatient monitoring including Syncope Observation Units (SOU) for prolonged monitoring]. We sought to develop evidence-based recommendations for duration of ED/post-ED ECG monitoring using the Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) by assessing the time to serious adverse event (SAE) occurrence. Methods: We enrolled adults with syncope at 6 EDs and collected demographics, time of syncope and ED arrival, CSRS predictors and time of SAE. We stratified patients as per the CSRS (low, medium and high risk as ≤0, 1-3 and ≥4 respectively). 30-day adjudicated SAEs included death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism or serious hemorrhage. We categorized arrhythmias, interventions for arrhythmias and death from unknown cause as arrhythmic SAE and the rest as non-arrhythmic SAE. We performed Kaplan-Meier analysis using time of ED registration for primary and time of syncope for secondary analyses. Results: 5,372 patients (mean age 54.3 years, 54% females, and 13.7% hospitalized) were enrolled with 538 (10%) patients suffering SAE (0.3% died due to an unknown cause and 0.5% suffered ventricular arrhythmia). 64.8% of SAEs occurred within 6 hours of ED arrival. The probability for any SAE or arrhythmia was highest within 2-hours of ED arrival for low-risk patients (0.65% and 0.31%; dropped to 0.54% and 0.06% after 2-hours) and within 6-hours for the medium and high-risk patients (any SAE 6.9% and 17.4%; arrhythmia 6.5% and 18.9% respectively) which also dropped after 6-hours (any SAE 0.99% and 2.92%; arrhythmia 0.78% and 3.07% respectively). For any CSRS threshold, the risk of arrhythmia was highest within the first 15-days (for CSRS ≥2 patients 15.6% vs. 0.006%). ED monitoring for 2-hours (low-risk) and 6-hours (medium and high-risk) and using a CSRS ≥2 cut-off for outpatient 15-day ECG monitoring will lead to 52% increase in arrhythmia detection. The majority (82.2%) arrived to the ED within 2-hours (median time 1.1 hours) and secondary analysis yielded similar results. Conclusion: Our study found 2 and 6 hours of ED monitoring for low-risk and medium/high-risk CSRS patients respectively, with 15-day outpatient ECG monitoring for CSRS ≥2 patients will improve arrhythmia detection without the need for hospitalization or observation units.