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The Changing Religious Cleavage in Canadians' Voting Behaviour

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 September 2016

Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme
Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme*
Affiliation:
University of Waterloo
*
Department of Sociology and Legal Studies, University of Waterloo, PAS Building, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Email: sarah.wilkins-laflamme@uwaterloo.ca
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Abstract

Past studies have shown that religion plays an important role in voting behaviour in Canada. Yet, little is known about the changes this religious vote has undergone over the past few decades. Using Canadian Election Studies data, we analyze the evolving impact of religious affiliation and level of religiosity on vote choice in federal elections between 1965 and 2011. We find that, as the marginal impact of Catholic and mainline Protestant traditions has declined, the effect of level of religiosity has gained in importance. In 2011, religious citizens were overall more likely to vote Conservative and secular individuals were more likely to vote NDP both in Quebec and in the rest of Canada. Some distinct voting patterns also remain for non-mainline Protestant groups in the ROC and religious nones in Quebec.

Résumé

Des études antérieures montrent à voir l'importance de la religion dans les comportements électoraux des Canadiens. Toutefois, nous savons peu quant aux mutations qu'a connues le vote religieux dans les dernières décennies. Employant des données de l’Étude électorale canadienne, nous analysons l’évolution de l'impact de l'affiliation religieuse et du niveau de religiosité sur le choix de vote fédéral entre 1965 et 2011. Nos résultats indiquent une disparition de l'effet distinct des affiliations catholique et protestante libérale au cours des années, jumelée avec une prise d'importance de l'effet du niveau de religiosité. En 2011, les individus religieux détenaient en moyenne une plus grande probabilité de voter pour le Parti Conservateur, et les individus séculiers pour le Parti NDP— au Québec et dans le reste du Canada. Quelques comportements électoraux distincts subsistent également pour les protestants des traditions non libérales dans le ROC ainsi que pour les sans religion au Québec.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 49 , Issue 3 , September 2016 , pp. 499 - 518
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2016 

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Supplementary material: File

Wilkins-Laflamme supplementary material

Tables A.1-A.12 and Figures A.1-A.3

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