Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T22:50:08.680Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Crisis-Based Evaluation of the Democratic Peace Proposition*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Jean-Sébastien Rioux
Jean-Sébastien Rioux
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal and McGill University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

It has often been said that the closest thing we have to an empirical law in international relations is that democracies do not fight against each other. This study adds to the literature on democratic peace by focusing on the crisis behaviour of democracies and nondemocracies. International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project data are used to conduct a quantitative analysis of states' crisis activity from 1918 to 1988. Strong support emerges for the three hypotheses of the study. First, it is clear that democracies initiate fewer crises than nondemocracies. However, democracies tend to escalate crises to higher levels of severity. Finally, democracies eventually win the crises in which they become involved. The conclusion is that democratic leaders face strong incentives to “select” winnable crises against nondemocratic states because of the audience costs they face, but when the opponent is another democracy, the domestic audience expects leaders to compromise.

Résumé

L'affirmation qui ressemble le plus à une loi empirique dans le champ des relations internationales est probablement l'observation selon laquelle les démocraties ne se font pas mutuellement la guerre. Cet article s'inscrit dans la réflexion sur la paix démocratique puisqu'il se penche sur le comportement des démocraties et des Etats non démocratiques face aux crises internationales. Une analyse quantitative sur le niveau d'activité des Etats durant de telles crises au cours de la période de 1918 à 1988, menée à partir des données du International Crisis Behavior Project, confirme les trois hypothèses évaluées. Cette étude démontre que les États démocratiques sont moins souvent à l'origine des crises que les États non démocratiques. Par contre, les démocraties tendent à exacerber les crises et, éventuellement, à en sortir victorieuses. On peut conclure que, en raison des contraintes de politique intérieure, les dirigeants d'États démocratiques sont porés à «choisir», parmi les crises avec les États non démocratiques, celles qui semblent les plus susceptibles de tourner à leur avantage. Par contre, lorsque l'autre partie est également une démocratie, les pressions internes incident les dirigeants à chercher une solution pacifique.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 31 , Issue 2 , June 1998 , pp. 263 - 283
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Levy, Jack S., “Domestic Politics and War,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (1988), 654.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 Thompson and Tucker state that there were “approximately 100 empirical democratic peace articles published in journals and presented at conferences” in the last 10 years (Thompson, William R. and Tucker, Richard, “A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 [1997], 428)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 These represent arguments based on different levels of analysis; a third argument could be based on a systemic level: the international system will be more peaceful as the number of democratic states increases. See Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Hegre, Håvard, “Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997), 283–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4 Brecher, Michael, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan and Moser, Sheila, Crises in the Twentieth Century, 2 vols. (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1988).Google Scholar

5 Rosenau, James N., International Politics and Foreign Policy (New York: Free Press, 1961)Google Scholar; and Kant, Immanuel, Perpetual Peace, trans, by Beck, lewis White (New York: Bobbs-Merrill, 1957 [1795])Google Scholar. Writers use the terms “republican,” “liberal,” “libertarian” or “democratic” to denote states that generally conform to some type of standard of individual liberty: open elections, free press, individual rights, market system or a combination thereof. I operationalize democracy below in the research design portion of the article.

6 For this interpretation see de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Lalman, David, War and Reason (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1992), 45.Google Scholar

7 Doyle, Michael, “Liberalism and World Politics,” American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 1151–1169CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Russett, Bruce, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993)Google Scholar; Rummel, Rudolph J., Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 5: The Just Peace (New York: Halstead, 1975–1981)Google Scholar; Rummel, Rudolph J., “Libertarianism and International Violence,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (1983), 27–71CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Rummel, Rudolph J., “Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes,” European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 457–479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

8 An anonymous reviewer suggested that bargaining norms can also be fostered in authoritarian systems such as in the former Soviet Union's Communist party hierarchy. However, in democratic societies most public officials face periodic elections, and must compete for the “median voter” (see Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy [New York: Harper Collins, 1957])Google Scholar. In the Soviet example, the conciliation norms probably take the form of agreement with the current politically correct leaders in order to avoid being purged, although this is mere speculation.

9 See for example, Morgan, T. Clifton and Campbell, Sally Howard, “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (1991), 187–211CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason; Maoz, Zeev and Russett, Bruce, “Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–86,” American Political Science Review 87 (1993), 624–638CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Siverson, Randolph S., “Democracies and War Participation,” European Journal of International Relations 1 (1995), 481–490CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Van Belle, Douglas A., “Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace,” Journal of Peace Research 34 (1997), 405–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

10 The norms versus structure argument is elaborated in Rummel, Rudolph J., Understanding Conflict and War, Vol. 4: War, Power, Peace (New York: Halstead, 1979)Google Scholar; Maoz and Russett, “Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace”; and Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace.

11 See Bremer, Stuart A., “Democracies and Militarized Interstate Conflict, 1816–1965,” International Interactions 18 (1993), 231–250CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Benoit, Kenneth, “Democracies Really Are More Peaceful (in General),” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 636–657CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Rummel, “Democracies ARE Less Warlike than Other Regimes.”

12 See Levy, “Domestic Politics and War”; Lee Ray, James, “Democracies and International Conflict: Rare or Nonexistent?” International Interactions 18 (1993), 251–276Google Scholar; Lee Ray, James, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Gleditsch, Nils Petter, “Geography, Democracy and Peace,” International Interactions 20 (1995), 297–323CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Oneal, John R. and Russett, Bruce M., “The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985,” International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997), 267–294CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

13 For example, see Morgan and Campbell, “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War”; Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace; and Eyerman, Joe and Hart, Robbie A. Jr., “An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition: Democracy Speaks Louder than Words,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 597–616CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

14 Siverson, “Democracies and War Participation”; and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Siverson, Randolph M., “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Type and Political Accountability,” American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 498–512CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Lake, David, “Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War,” American Political Science Review 86 (1992), 24–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16 Hermann, Margaret G. and Kegley, Charles W. Jr., “Ballots, a Barrier against the Use of Bullets and Bombs,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 436–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

17 Eyerman and Hart, “An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition.”

18 Schelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960).Google Scholar

19 Fearon, James D., “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of Disputes,” American Political Science Review 88 (1994), 577–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

20 Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders.”

21 The glaring exceptions that may prove the rule are George Bush failing to win re-election after the US victory in the 1991 Gulf War, and Winston Churchill losing power after the Second World War. These so-called “rally” effects have indeed been shown to be ephemeral (see Lian, Bradley and Oneal, John R., “Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37 [1993], 277–300CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Patrick James and Jean-Sébastien Rioux, “International Crises and Linkage Politics: The Experiences of the United States, 1953–1994,” Political Research Quarterly [forthcoming 1998]), but, on the whole, researchers have shown that leaders are punished or rewarded for their performance in the foreign policy sphere (see Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Siverson, Randolph M. and Woller, Gary, “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis,” American Political Science Review 86 [1992], 638–646CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders”).

22 Some well-known dissensions include Layne, Christopher, “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace,” International Security 19 (1994), 5–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Gates, Scott, Knutsen, Torbjørn L. and Moses, Jonathon W., “Democracy and Peace: A More Skeptical View,” Journal of Peace Research 33 (1996), 1–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

23 Rummel, “Libertarianism and International Violence”; and Oneal and Russett, “The Classical Liberals Were Right.”

24 James, Patrick and Mitchell, Glenn E. III, “Targets of Covert Pressure: The Hidden Victims of the Democratic Peace,” International Interactions 21 (1995), 85–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Gates, Knutsen and Moses, “Democracy and Peace.”

25 Mansfield, Edward D. and Snyder, Jack, “Democratization and War,” Foreign Affairs 74 (1995), 79–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Mansfield, Edward D. and Snyder, Jack, “Democratization and the Danger of War,” International Security 20 (1995), 5–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

26 Enterline, Andrew J., “Driving while Democratizing (DWD),” International Security 20 (1996), 183–196.Google Scholar

27 Michael D. Ward and Kristian S. Gleditsch, “Democratizing for Peace,” paper presented at the annual conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 1997.

28 Eyerman and Hart, “An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition”; and Lake, “Powerful Pacifists.”

29 Paul, T. V., Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

30 Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences.”

31 See Bueno de Mesquita and Lai man, War and Reason; and Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders.”

32 For example, Eyerman and Hart (“An Empirical Test of the Audience Cost Proposition”) use a 1945–1984 time frame.

33 Lake, “Powerful Pacifists.”

34 Brecher, Wilkenfeld and Moser, Crises in the Twentieth Century, vols. 1 and 2.

35 The author can provide the entire data set or a list of the excluded states on request; in all, these small states represent less than 10 per cent of the total possible cases of country-years, and account for only 13 of the 390 international crises (about 3%).

36 Brecher, Wilkenfeld and Moser, Crises in the Twentieth Century, Vol. 1, 3 (emphasis in original).

37 Ibid, (emphasis in original).

38 Ray, “Wars between Democracies”; and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict.

39 Ibid., 102.

40 Ray refers to other oft-used measures such as Raymond Gastil's Freedom House measure, or the Gurr, Jaggers and Moore Polity II measure (ibid., 93–95).

41 For example, Gurr, Ted Robert, Jaggers, Keith and Moore, Will H., “Polity II Codebook” (mimeographed, University of Colorado, 1989)Google Scholar; and Maoz and Russett, “Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace.”

42 For example, Gastil, Raymond Duncan, “The Comparative Study of Freedom: Experiences and Suggestions,” Studies in Comparative International Development 25 (1990), 25–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

43 Eyerman and Hart, “An Empirical Test of the Domestic Audience Cost Proposition,” 606.

44 Gochman, Charles S. and Maoz, Zeev, “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28 (1984), 585–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

45 For a discussion of the relationship between power and conflict proneness, see Bremer, Stuart A., “National Capabilities and War Proneness,” in Singer, J. David, ed.. The Correlates of War: II (New York: Free Press, 1980).Google Scholar

46 Brecher, Michael and James, Patrick, Crisis and Change in World Politics (Boulder: Westview Press, 1986).Google Scholar

47 Knoke, David and Burke, Peter J., Log-Linear Models (Newbury Park: Sage, 1980).CrossRefGoogle Scholar The formula is: (fM) (f22) / (f2i) (fi2).

48 Wang, Kevin and Lee Ray, James, “Beginners and Winners: The Fate of Initiators of Interstate Wars Involving Great Powers since 1495,” International Studies Quarterly 38 (1994), 39–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

49 Siverson, “Democracies and War Participation,” 487.

50 Smith, Alastair, “To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996), 16–40CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Randolph M. Siverson, “Thinking about Puzzles in the Study of International War,” presidential address at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.

51 Van Belle, “Press Freedom and the Democratic Peace.”

52 Mansfield and Snyder, “Democratization and War,” 97; and Mansfield and Snyder, “Democratization and the Danger of War,” 36.

53 Thompson, William R., “Democracy and Peace: Putting the Cart before the Horse?” International Organization 50 (1996), 141–174;CrossRefGoogle Scholar and Patrick James, Eric Solberg and Murray Wolfson, “An Identified Systemic Test of the Democracy-Peace Nexus,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Columbus, Ohio, 1995.

54 The widely used definition of war can be found in Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart A. and Stuckey, John, “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965,” in Russett, Bruce, ed., Peace, War, and Numbers (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1972), 25Google Scholar; the definition of crisis in Brecher, Michael and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, A Study of Crisis (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997), 3–5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

55 Jean-Sébastien Rioux, “How Did We Do? The Outcomes of 20th-century Crisis Negotiations,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Ottawa, 1998.