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French National Elections: Democratic Disequilibrium and the 2007 Forecasts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2010

Éric Bélanger  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Éric Bélanger*
Affiliation:
McGill University
Michael S. Lewis-Beck*
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
*
Éric Bélanger, Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, CanadaH3A 2T7, eric.belanger3@mcgill.ca.
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, michael-lewis-beck@uiowa.edu.
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Abstract

Abstract. The outcome of the 2007 elections in France raises a number of questions about the current state of democracy in that country. To put these elections into perspective, we examine the evolution of the French party system and electorate throughout the Fifth Republic. We look first at the pattern of party electoral movement over time. Then we evaluate the partisan cycle with respect to certain equilibrium conditions, namely stability, competition, and democratic rule. Based on these patterns, we arrive at a classification of French national elections using the Michigan school's theoretical framework. A key conclusion is that, in general, these Fifth Republic elections are in disequilibrium and often fail to express the majority partisan will. The 2007 results, which represent a return of the traditional right, are examined against the Iowa forecasting model, to see if they depart from these troubling conclusions.

Résumé. Les résultats des élections de 2007 en France soulèvent une série de questions à propos de l'état de la démocratie dans ce pays. Afin de mettre ces élections en perspective, nous examinons l'évolution du système partisan et des inclinaisons idéologiques de l'électorat français sous la Cinquième République. Nous nous attardons d'abord au mouvement dans le temps des appuis partisans. Nous évaluons ensuite l'équilibre du cycle partisan en France sur la base de certaines conditions, à savoir la stabilité, la compétition et la gouverne démocratique. Cet exercice permet d'en arriver à une classification des élections nationales françaises inspirée du cadre théorique de l'école de Michigan. La conclusion principale de cette analyse est qu'en général, ces élections attestent d'un déséquilibre, car le plus souvent, elles n'expriment pas la volonté majoritaire de l'électorat. Les élections de 2007, marquées par un retour en force de la droite, sont enfin analysées à la lumière du modèle de prévision électorale dit «de l'Iowa» afin de vérifier si elles s'inscrivent ou non dans cette dynamique de déséquilibre.

Type
Symposium: Electoral Forecasting and the 2007 French Presidential Elections
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 107 - 122
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2010

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