Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T20:54:05.024Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

What Determines the Length of a Typical Canadian Parliamentary Government?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 December 2009

J. Stephen Ferris  and
Marcel-Cristian Voia
J. Stephen Ferris*
Affiliation:
Carleton University
Marcel-Cristian Voia*
Affiliation:
Carleton University
*
J. Stephen Ferris, Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada. stephen_ferris@carleton.ca
Marcel-Cristian Voia, Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada. marcel_voia@carleton.ca
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Abstract. In this paper we examine the length of political tenure in Canadian federally elected parliamentary governments since 1867. Using annual data on tenure length, we categorize the distribution of governing tenures in terms of a hazard function: the probability that an election will arise in each year, given that an election has not yet been called. Structuring the election call as an optimal stopping rule, we test whether that distribution responds predictably to characteristics of the political and/or economic environment. The results of using the continuous Cox and Gompertz models together with the discrete semi-parametric proportional hazard model suggest that governing parties in Canada do engage in election timing and that the only economic policy measure that is used consistently in conjunction with election timing is fiscal expenditure.

Résumé. Dans cet ouvrage, nous examinons la durée d'un régime parlementaire canadien depuis la Confédération de 1867. Nous utilisons des données annuelles et nous représentons la distribution de durée de vie d'un gouvernement par une fonction de hazard, c'est-a-dire, la probabilité qu'une élection soit déclenchée durant une année spécifique étant donné qu'elle ne l'a pas encore été jusqu'à présent. Nous modélisons un déclenchement d'élection par une règle d'arrêt optimal el nous testons si la distribution dépend des caractéristiques de l'environnement politique et économique tel que prédit selon la théorie. Nous résultats basés les modèles de hazard proportionnel continu de type Cox et Gompertz et discret semi-paramétrique révèlent que les partis fédéraux au pouvoir au Canada choisissent le moment opportun pour déclencher une élection. De plus, les dépenses fiscales sont la seule variable de politique économique qui y soit systématiquement relié.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 42 , Issue 4 , December 2009 , pp. 881 - 910
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alesina, A., Roubini, N. and Cohen, G.D.. 1997. Political Business Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balke, N.S. 1990. “The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections.” Public Choice 65: 201–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, M. J. 1968. Pendulum of Power. Scarborough: Prentice Hall of Canada.Google Scholar
Berlinski, S., Dewan, T. and Dowding, K. M.. 2007. “The Length of Ministerial Tenure in the United Kingdom, 1945–97.” British Journal of Political Science 37: 245–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, T. and Case, A.. 1995. “Does political accountability affect economic policy choices?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110: 769–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, J.M. and Jones, B.S.. 1997. “Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science.” American Journal of Political Science 41: 1414–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chowdhury, A.R. 1993. “Political Surfing over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing in India.” American Journal of Political Science 37: 1100–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drazen, A. 2001. “The Political Business Cycle after 25 Years.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Ferris, J.S. 2008. “Electoral Politics and Monetary Policy: Does the Bank of Canada Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?” Public Choice 135: 449–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferris, J.S., Park, S-B. and Winer, S.L.. 2008. “Studying the Role of Political Competition in the Evolution of Government Size over Long Horizons.” Public Choice 137: 369–401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gillespie, W. I. 1991. Tax, Borrow and Spend: Financing Federal Spending in Canada, 1867–1990. Carleton Library Series, no. 170.Ottawa: Carleton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, D. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review 71: 1467–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J.D. and Martinez-Gallardo, C.. 2008. “Replacing Cabinet Ministers: Patterns of Ministerial Stability in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Political Science Review 102: 169–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inogushi, T. 1981. “Explaining and Predicting Japanese General Elections, 1960–1980.” Journal of Japanese Studies 7: 255–318.Google Scholar
Ito, T. 1990. “The Timing of Elections and Political Business Cycles in Japan.” Journal of Asian Economics 1: 135–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kam, C. and Indridason, I. H.. 2005. “The Timing of Cabinet Reshuffles in Five Westminster Parliamentary Systems.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30: 327–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kayser, M.A. 2005. “Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention.” American Political Science Review 99: 17–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G., Alt, J.E., Burns, N.E. and Laver, M.. 1990. “A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 34: 846–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kneebone, R. D. and McKenzie, K.J.. 1999. Past (In)discretions: Canadian Federal and Provincial Fiscal Policy. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Kneebone, R.D. and McKenzie, K.J.. 2001. “Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: An Examination of Canadian Provinces.” International Tax and Public Finance 8: 753–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leacy, F.H., Urquhart, M.C. and Buckley, K.A.H.. 1983. Historical Statistics of Canada. Ottawa: Supply and Services Canada.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. and Strom, K.. 1995. “Coalition Termination and the Strategic Timing of Parliamentary Elections.” American Political Science Review 89: 648–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maravall, J.M. 2006. The Strategy of Election Timing. Madrid: Center for Advanced Study in Social Sciences, Juan March Institute.Google Scholar
Metcalfe, C., Redish, A. and Shearer, R.. 1998. “New Estimates of the Canadian Money Stock 1871–1967.” Canadian Journal of Economics 31: 104–24. [in data appendix]CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mink, M. and de Haan, J.. 2005. “Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?” Cesifo Working Paper #1532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nordhaus, W. 1975. “The political business cycle.” Review of Economic Studies 42: 169–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G.. 2003. “Do Electoral Cycles Differ across Political Systems?” IGIER Working Paper #232, Boccini University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rae, D.W. 1971. The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Reid, B. 1998. “Endogenous Elections, Electoral Budget Cycles and Canadian Provincial Governments.” Public Choice 97: 35–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogoff, K. and Sibert, A.. 1988. “Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles.” Review of Economic Studies 91: 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Serletis, A. and Afxentiou, P.C.. 1998. “Electoral and Partisan Cycle Regularities in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Economics 31: 28–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shi, M. and Svensson, J.. 2006. “Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?” Journal of Public Economics 90: 1367–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. 1996. “Endogenous Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems.” Economics and Politics 8: 85–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, A. 2003. “Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliaments.” British Journal of Political Science 33: 397–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strom, K. and Swindle, S.M.. 2002. “Strategic Parliamentary Dissolution.” American Political Science Review 96: 575–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tellier, G. 2006. “Public Expenditures in Canadian Provinces: An Empirical Study of Politico-economic Interactions.” Public Choice 126: 367–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Urquhart, M.C. 1965. Historical Statistics of Canada. Toronto: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Urquhart, M.C. 1993. Gross National Product 1870–1926, the Derivation of the Estimate. Kingston: McGill-Queens University Press. [in data section]Google Scholar
Winer, S. L. 1986. “The Role of Exchange Rate Flexibility in the International Transmission of Inflation in Long and Shorter Runs: Canada 1953 to 1981.” Canadian Journal of Economics 19: 62–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winer, S. L. and Ferris, J.S.. 2008. “Searching for Keynesianism.” European Journal of Political Economy 24: 294–316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar