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The Impact of Cross-border Integration with Mainland China on Hong Kong's Local Politics: The Individual Visit Scheme as a Double-edged Sword for Political Trust in Hong Kong

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 November 2016

Kevin Tze-wai Wong ,
Victor Zheng  and
Po-san Wan
Kevin Tze-wai Wong*
Affiliation:
Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Victor Zheng
Affiliation:
Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Email: vzheng@cuhk.edu.hk.
Po-san Wan
Affiliation:
Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. Email: shirleywan@cuhk.edu.hk.
*
Email: kevinwtw@cuhk.edu.hk (corresponding author).
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Abstract

Using official statistics and a pooled dataset of longitudinal surveys, the aim of this article is to examine the impact of the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) on political trust in Hong Kong. Our multilevel analysis found that the gradual inflow of IVS visitors (mostly overnight visitors) increased political trust in the first few years, but that this trust rapidly diminished in later years, especially after the introduction of the one-year multiple-entry IVS endorsement (which attracted mostly same-day visitors). The main reason for the reduction in the positive impact of the IVS scheme is that the growth in the number of same-day visitors has contributed less to Hong Kong's economy than has the increase in the number of overnight visitors, and has exacerbated several social problems. The impact of mainland visitors has varied across groups with different levels of education. The political trust of people with a senior secondary education has been enhanced more by the increase in overnight visitors and reduced less by the increase in same-day visitors than that of people with a tertiary level of education or a junior secondary education or below.

摘要

本文同时运用官方统计资料和纵贯式民意调查数据, 尝试验证「个人游」 计划 (俗称「自由行」) 对港人政治信任的影响。多阶层分析发现, 在计划实施初期, 「个人游」吸引愈来愈多内地旅客 (主要是过夜旅客) 来港, 有助提升港人的政治信任。然而, 政治信任近年急剧下降, 尤其是在「一签多行」计划实施后, 因为「一签多行」计划主要吸引非过夜内地旅客来港, 香港从他们获得的经济利益不及过夜旅客, 而且非过夜旅客的增加引发一连串社会问题, 所以「个人游」对港人政治信任的正面影响慢慢减弱, 甚至出现负面影响。本文同时发现, 「个人游」对不同教育程度人士的影响力不尽相同, 过夜旅客对高中学历人士的政治信任的正面影响力, 较大专学历和初中或以下学历人士强, 而非过夜旅客对他们的负面影响力则较弱。

Keywords

cross-border integrationregionalizationpolitical trustIndividual Visit SchemeHong Kongmultilevel analysis跨境融合区域化政治信任「个人游」计划香港多阶层分析
Type
Articles
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 228 , December 2016 , pp. 1081 - 1104
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Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 2016 

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