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Inequality and Political Trust in China: The Social Volcano Thesis Re-examined

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 November 2018

Yingnan Joseph Zhou  and
Shuai Jin
Yingnan Joseph Zhou*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Texas at El Paso.
Shuai Jin
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts Boston. Email: Shuai.Jin@umb.edu.
*
Email: yzhou5@utep.edu (corresponding author).
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Abstract

The social volcano thesis states that the rising inequality in China threatens regime stability. This idea, although widely held in the media and in academia, is backed by little positive evidence but by much negative evidence. Two primary pieces of negative evidence are that the Chinese people trust the central government and that they are highly tolerant of inequality. This paper discusses the shortcomings of the negative evidence and re-examines the thesis in a rigorous and direct way. Our multilevel analysis shows that provincial inequality has negative effects on individuals’ trust in the local government but not in the central government, and this negative effect holds for both the rich and the poor. Because distrust in the local government implies distrust in the central government, we conclude that a social volcano exists.

摘要

“社会火山论” 认为中国严重的收入不平等会威胁政权稳定。此说虽然在媒体和学术届颇具影响，却尚未得到有力的证据支持。相反，反对此说的证据却越来越多。本文梳理了这些反面证据，指出了其中的问题，并对 “社会火山论” 进行了直接并严格的检验。我们的多层分析显示，省级的收入不平等确实降低了民众（包括穷人和富人）对地方政府的信任度，但不平等对民众对中央政府的信任度没有影响。由于民众对地方政府的不信任隐含了他们对中央政府的不信任，所以本文认为 “社会火山” 是存在的。

Keywords

inequalityGini coefficientpolitical trustChinamultilevel analysis不平等基尼系数政治信任中国多层模型分析
Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 236 , December 2018 , pp. 1033 - 1062
Copyright
Copyright © SOAS University of London 2018 

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