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Assessment of the Effects of Severe Winter Disasters (Dzud) on Public Health in Mongolia on the Basis of Loss of Livestock

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2016

Shinji Otani ,
Kazunari Onishi ,
Youichi Kurozawa ,
Yasunori Kurosaki ,
Tserenpurev Bat-Oyun ,
Masato Shinoda  and
Haosheng Mu
Shinji Otani*
Affiliation:
International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, Tottori, Japan
Kazunari Onishi
Affiliation:
Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago, Japan
Youichi Kurozawa
Affiliation:
Division of Health Administration and Promotion, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University, Yonago, Japan
Yasunori Kurosaki
Affiliation:
Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Tottori, Japan
Tserenpurev Bat-Oyun
Affiliation:
Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Tottori, Japan
Masato Shinoda
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Haosheng Mu
Affiliation:
Health and Family Planning Commission of Datong City, China.
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Shinji Otani, MD, PhD, International Platform for Dryland Research and Education, Tottori University, 1390 Hamasaka, Tottori, Japan (e-mail: ota24n2@med.tottori-u.ac.jp).
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Abstract

Objective

Mongolia experienced one of its most severe natural winter disasters (dzud) in 2009-2010. It is difficult to accurately assess the risk of the effects of dzud on human lives and public health. This study aimed to evaluate the Mongolian public health risks of dzud by assessing livestock loss.

Methods

We analyzed data from all 21 provinces and Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia and compared the changes in infant mortality (2009-2010) and the decline in the numbers of livestock (percentage change from the previous year), which included horses, cattle, camels, sheep, and goats (2009-2010) and/or meteorological data. We also evaluated the association among the trends in the infant mortality rate, the number of livestock, and foodstuff consumption throughout Mongolia (2001-2012).

Results

The change in the infant mortality rate was positively correlated with the rate of decreasing numbers of each type of livestock in 2010. Average temperature and total precipitation were not related to the change in the infant mortality rate. In the trend from 2001 to 2012, there was a significant positive correlation between the infant mortality rate and the number of livestock and the consumption of milk products.

Conclusions

Loss of livestock and shortage of milk products leading to malnutrition might have affected public health as typified by infant mortality in Mongolia. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:549–552)

Keywords

winter disasterdzuddrylandinfant mortalitylivestock
Type
Brief Reports
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 10 , Issue 4 , August 2016 , pp. 549 - 552
Copyright
Copyright © Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2016 

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