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High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 August 2016

Caleb Dresser ,
Jeroan Allison ,
John Broach ,
Mary-Elise Smith  and
Andrew Milsten
Caleb Dresser
Affiliation:
University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts
Jeroan Allison
Affiliation:
Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts
John Broach
Affiliation:
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts.
Mary-Elise Smith
Affiliation:
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts.
Andrew Milsten*
Affiliation:
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts.
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Andrew Milsten, MD, MS, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, 55 Lake Avenue North, Worcester, MA 01655 (e-mail: Andrew.Milsten@umassmemorial.org).
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Abstract

Objectives

Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries.

Methods

Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations.

Results

Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16–1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30–38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP.

Conclusions

Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832–837)

Keywords

hurricanedisasterpovertyclimate changemortality
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 10 , Issue 6 , December 2016 , pp. 832 - 837
Copyright
Copyright © Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2016 

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