Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-11T01:32:23.166Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF PASCAL’S WAGER

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 September 2017

Ahmer Tarar
Ahmer Tarar*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, 4348 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-4348, USA. Email: ahmertarar@tamu.edu URL: http://people.tamu.edu/~ahmertarar/
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract:

Formal analyses of Pascal’s Wager have almost all been decision-theoretic, with a human as the sole decision-maker. This paper analyses Pascal’s Wager in a game-theoretic setting in which the deity whose existence the human is considering wagering on is also a decision-maker. There is an equilibrium in which the human chooses to wager that the deity exists and Pascal’s Wager thus operates, but also one in which the human does not wager. Thus, in a game-theoretic setting, Pascal’s Wager is indeterminate: wagering and not wagering are both consistent with equilibrium behaviour.

Keywords

Pascal’s WagerDecision TheoryGame Theory
Type
Articles
Information
Economics & Philosophy , Volume 34 , Issue 1 , March 2018 , pp. 31 - 44
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Brams, S. J. 1982. Belief in God: a game-theoretic paradox. International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 13: 121–129.Google Scholar
Brams, S. J. 1994. Theory of Moves. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brams, S. J. 2007. Superior Beings: If They Exist, How Would We Know? (2nd edn). New York, NY: Springer.Google Scholar
Brams, S. J. 2011. Game Theory and the Humanities. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Durkin, J. and Greeley, A.. 1991. A model of religious choice under uncertainty: on responding rationally to the nonrational. Rationality and Society 3: 178–196.Google Scholar
Durkin, J. and Greeley, A.. 1992. Response to Montgomery. Rationality and Society 4: 121–122.Google Scholar
Hacking, I. 1972. The logic of Pascal’s wager. American Philosophical Quarterly 9: 186–192.Google Scholar
Hájek, A. 2003. Waging war on Pascal’s wager. Philosophical Review 112: 27–56.Google Scholar
Harsanyi, J. 1967. Games of incomplete information played by ‘Bayesian’ players I. Management Science 14: 159–182.Google Scholar
Jordan, J., ed. 1994. Gambling on God: Essays on Pascal’s Wager. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Jordan, J. 2006. Pacal’s Wager: Pragmatic Arguments and Belief in God. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
McClennen, E. F. 1994. Pascal’s wager and finite decision theory. In Gambling on God: Essays on Pascal’s Wager, ed. Jordan, J., 115–138. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
McShane, P. J. 2014. Game theory and belief in God. International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 75: 3–12.Google Scholar
Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M.. 2009. Religion and faith: a decision theory perspective. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion 5: 1–19.Google Scholar
Melkonyan, T. and Pingle, M.. 2010. Ambiguity, pessimism, and rational religious choice. Theory and Decision 69: 417–438.Google Scholar
Montgomery, J. D. 1992. Pascal’s wager and the limits of rational choice: a comment on Durkin and Greeley. Rationality and Society 4: 117–122.Google Scholar
Montgomery, J. D. 1996. Contemplations on the economic approach to religious behaviour. American Economic Review 86: 443–448.Google Scholar
Mougin, G. and Sober, E.. 1994. Betting against Pascal’s wager. Noûs 28: 382–395.Google Scholar
Østerdal, L. P. 2004. Pascal’s and Tabarrok’s wagers. Theory and Decision 57: 1–4.Google Scholar
Pascal, B. 1995 [1670]. Pensées, ed. Krailsheimer, A. J.. New York, NY: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
Pingle, M. and Melkonyan, T.. 2012. To believe or not believe. . .or not decide: a decision-theoretic model of agnosticism. Rationality and Society 24: 408–441.Google Scholar
Ryan, J. K. 1994. The wager in Pascal and others. In Gambling on God: Essays on Pascal’s Wager, ed. Jordan, J., 11–19. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Savage, L. J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York, NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
Schellenberg, J. L. 1993. Divine Hiddenness and Human Reason. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Tabarrok, A. 2000. Believe in Pascal’s wager? Have I got a deal for you! Theory and Decision 48: 123–128.Google Scholar
Toner, P. and Toner, C.. 2006. Pascal’s first wager reconsidered: a virtue theoretic view. International Philosophical Quarterly 46: 75–90.Google Scholar
von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O.. 1944. Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar