Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T11:25:44.864Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Paradoxes of Allais and Ellsberg

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2008

Isaac Levi
Affiliation:
Columbia University

Extract

In The Enterprise of Knowledge (Levi, 1980a), I proposed a general theory of rational choice which I intended as a characterization of a prescriptive theory of ideal rationality. A cardinal tenet of this theory is that assessments of expected value or expected utility in the Bayesian sense may not be representable by a numerical indicator or indeed induce an ordering of feasible options in a context of deliberation. My reasons for taking this position are related to my commitment to the inquiry-oriented approach to human knowledge and valuation favored by the American pragmatists, Charles Peirce and John Dewey. A feature of any acceptable view of inquiry ought to be that during an inquiry points under dispute ought to be kept in suspense pending resolution through inquiry.

Type
Essays
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1986

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Allais, M. 1952. “The Foundations of a Positive Theory of Choice involving Risk and a Criticism of the Postulates and Axioms of the American School,” translation of “Fondements d'une Théorie Positive des Choix Comportant un Risque et Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de L'École Américaine.” In Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, by Allais, M. and Hagen, O., pp. 27145. Reidel.Google Scholar
Allais, M. 1953. “Le comportement de l'Homme Rationnel Devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine, ” Econometrica 21:503–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allais, M., and Hagen, O. 1979. Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox. Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, J.O. 1980. Statistical Decision Theory. Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borch, K. 1979. “Utility and Stochastic Dominance.” In Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, by Allais, M. and Hagen, O., pp.193201. Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blackwell, D., and Girshick, M.A. 1954. Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Chew, Soo Hong. 1981. “A Mixture Set of Axiomatization of Weighted Utility Theory.” Fourth revision of a 1981 working paper.Google Scholar
Cyert, R.M., and Degroot, M. 1974. “Adaptive Utility.” In Adaptive Economic Models, edited by Day, R.H. and Grove, T.. Academic Press. Reprinted in Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, by M. Allais and O. Hagen, pp.223–41. Reidel.Google Scholar
Ellsberg, D. 1961. “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, R.A. 1959. Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference, 2nd ed.Hafner.Google Scholar
Fleming, M. 1952. “A Cardinal Concept of Welfare.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 66: 366–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M., and Savage, L.J. 1948. “The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk.” Journal of Political Economy 56: 279304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gärdenfors, P., and Sahlin, N.-E. 1982. “Unreliable Probabilities, Risk Taking and Decision Making.” Synthese 53: 361–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibbard, A., and Harper, W. 1978. “Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected Utility.” In Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory, v. 1, edited by Hooker, C.A., Leach, J.J. and McClennen, E.F., pp.125–62. Reidel.Google Scholar
Grether, D.M., and Plott, C.R. 1979. “Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon, ” The American Economic Review 69: 623–38.Google Scholar
Hagen, O. 1979. “Towards a Positive Theory of Preferences Under Risk.” In Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, by Allais, M. and Hagen, O., pp.271302. Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harsanyi, J.C. 1955. “Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility.” Journal of Political Economy 63: 309–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Making under Risk.” Econometrica 47: 263–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, I. 1974. “On Indeterminate Probabilities.” Journal of Philosophy 71: 391418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, I. 1975. “Newcomb's Many Problems.” Theory and Decision 6: 161–75. Reprinted in Decisions and Revisions, by Levi, I., pp.245–56. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1980a. The Enterprise of Knowledge. MIT.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1980b. “Induction and Self Correcting According to Peirce.” In Science, Belief and Behaviour: Essays in Honour of R.B. Braithwaite, edited by Mellor, D.H., pp. 127–40. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1982. “Conflict and Social Agency.” Journal of Philosophy 79: 231–47. Reprinted in Decisions and Revisions, by Levi, I., pp.257–70. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Levi, I. 1982b. “Ignorance, Probability and Rational Choice.” Synthese 53: 387417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, I. 1984. Decisions and Revisions. Cambridge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luce, R.D., and Raiffa, H. 1958. Games and Decisions. Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, A. 1920. Principles of Economics, 8th edition. MacMillan.Google Scholar
Machina, M. 1982. “Expected Utility Analysis without the Independence Axiom, ” Econometrica 50: 277323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacCrimmon, K.R., and Larsson, S. 1979. “Utility Theory: Axioms versus ‘Paradoxes.’” In Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, by Allais, M. and Hagen, O., pp. 333409. Reidel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McClennen, E.F. 1983. “Sure-Thing Doubts.” Draft of paper prepared for the First International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearson, E.S. 1962. “Some Thoughts on Statistical Inference.” Reprinted in Selected Papers of E.S. Pearson, pp. 276–83. University of California Press.Google Scholar
Raiffa, H. 1961. “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms: Comment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 690–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raiffa, H. 1968. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Certainty. Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Reilly, R.J. 1982. “Preference Reversal: Further Evidence and Some Suggested Modifications in Experimental Design.” American Economic Review 72: 576–84.Google Scholar
Robbins, H. 1964. “The Empirical Bayes Approach to Statistical Decision Problems.” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35: 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, L.J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley.Google Scholar
Schick, F. 1984. Having Reasons. Princeton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sen, A.K. 1970. Collective Choice and Social Welfare. Holden-Day.Google Scholar
Wald, A. 1950. Statistical Decision Functions. Wiley.Google Scholar