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Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 July 2021

Lucas Costa ,
André Albuquerque Sant'Anna Open the ORCID record for André Albuquerque Sant'Anna [Opens in a new window]  and
Carlos Eduardo Frickmann Young Open the ORCID record for Carlos Eduardo Frickmann Young [Opens in a new window]
Lucas Costa
Affiliation:
Institute of Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
André Albuquerque Sant'Anna*
Affiliation:
Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), Brasilia, Brazil Federal Fluminense University, Department of Economics, Niterói, Brazil
Carlos Eduardo Frickmann Young
Affiliation:
Institute of Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: andre_albuquerque@id.uff.br
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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of drought shocks in a vulnerable environment – the Brazilian Semi-Arid. We analyze the impact of drought shocks, measured as deviations from long-run historical averages, on agricultural outcomes in a region that suffers recurrently from drought. After controlling for municipality and year fixed effects, we use weather shocks to exactly identify outcomes. Our benchmark results show substantial effects on the loss of crop area and on the value of agricultural output, as well as on crop yields. As we investigate distributional effects, our results show that crops related to familiar agriculture suffer more from drought shocks. We follow our investigation by testing heterogeneity effects and show that adequate water provision and maintenance of forest cover help in reducing the impact of drought shocks.

Keywords

agricultural outputBrazilian Semi-Aridclimate changedrought

JEL classification

Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q56: Environment and Development • Environment and Trade • Sustainability • Environmental Accounts and Accounting • Environmental Equity • Population Growth
Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 28 , Issue 6 , December 2023 , pp. 603 - 623
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

The online version of this article has been updated since original publication. A notice detailing the changes has also been published at: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X21000255

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