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Climate change, agriculture and economic effects on different regions of Brazil

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2014

Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho  and
Gustavo Inácio de Moraes
Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho
Affiliation:
University of São Paulo, ‘Luiz de Queiroz’ College of Agriculture, Pádua Dias 11, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil. Tel. 55-19-34294444. E-mail: jbsferre@usp.br
Gustavo Inácio de Moraes
Affiliation:
Pontifical Catholic University, Economics and Business School, Graduate Program in Economics, Porto Alegre, Brazil. E-mail: gustavo.moraes@pucrs.br
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Abstract

In this paper we assess the potential economic effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture scenarios in different regions in a general equilibrium framework, using a detailed regional economic database for the year 2005. Two different climate change impact scenarios are simulated. This paper extends the Brazilian literature in three different ways: by considering detailed shocks by product and region; by highlighting the connections between the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the labor market, with an inter-regional focus; and by specifying the links between climate change forecasts for agriculture and household expenditures. Results show that climate change impacts on Brazilian agriculture would have a relatively small economic effect on the Brazilian economy in aggregate terms, but with severe consequences at the regional level, making a strong case for losses that would be concentrated in the poorest regions and for the poorest workers and households in those regions.

Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , February 2015 , pp. 37 - 56
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

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