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Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 April 2008

M.J. METZGER ,
R.G.H. BUNCE ,
R. LEEMANS  and
D. VINER
M.J. METZGER*
Affiliation:
Wageningen University, Plant Production Systems Group, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, the Netherlands Wageningen University, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
R.G.H. BUNCE
Affiliation:
Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
R. LEEMANS
Affiliation:
Wageningen University, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
D. VINER
Affiliation:
Natural England, 122a Thorpe Road, Norwich NR1 1RN, UK
*
*Correspondence: Dr Marc J. Metzger, School of GeoSciences, Drummand Street, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK Tel: +44 131 651 4446 Fax: +44 131 650 2524 e-mail: marc.metzger@ed.ac.uk
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Summary

Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the environment are generally assessed by summarizing climate change scenarios for broad regions (for example countries), or by specific modelling exercises. This paper presents an alternative approach for summarizing climate change impacts on the European environment, by linking climate change scenarios to recognized environmental divisions. Sixteen climate scenarios from four general circulation models were therefore linked to 84 statistically derived strata sharing common environmental features. In this way, the future distribution of the strata, as defined by their climate characteristics, were quantified and mapped. The results show that Europe is likely to experience major environmental shifts, with pronounced regional variations. As expected, environmental strata shift northwards. In particular the southern Mediterranean strata are projected to expand, whereas Atlantic environments remain much more stable. Alpine and Mediterranean mountain environments decline dramatically. However, the Scandinavian zones show no consistent pattern of change. More detailed analysis of four sample regions shows that the impacts of the projected shifts will largely depend on regional characteristics. Environmental conservation, regional assessments and scenario development could therefore be facilitated by combining relevant regional datasets (for example for vegetation, land cover and species distribution) with the shifting environmental strata.

Keywords

climate changeclimate response surfacesenvironmental stratificationEuropepotential impactsregional assessmentshifting environments
Type
Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 35 , Issue 1 , March 2008 , pp. 64 - 75
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2008

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