Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T04:23:40.427Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The dynamics of scarlet fever epidemics in England and Wales in the 19th century

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

C. J. Duncan ,
S. R. Duncan  and
S. Scott
C. J. Duncan
Affiliation:
School of Biological Sciences, Derby Building, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK
S. R. Duncan
Affiliation:
Control Systems Centre, Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, UMIST, P.O. Box 88, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK
S. Scott
Affiliation:
School of Biological Sciences, Derby Building, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

There was a marked rise in scarlet fever mortality in England and Wales in the mid-nineteenth century and spectral analysis of the registration details, 1847–80, shows that the interepidemic interval was 5–6 years, but after 1880 the endemic level fell and the fatal epidemics disappeared. The dynamics of the scarlet fever epidemics can be represented by a linearized mathematical model and because the system is lightly damped, it could be driven by an oscillation in susceptibility. Epidemics were significantly correlated with dry conditions in spring/summer (P < 0·001), suggesting that these produced a low amplitude oscillation in susceptibility which drove the system. Epidemics also correlated (P < 0·001) with an oscillation in wheat prices but at a lag of 3 years, suggesting that malnutrition during pregnancy caused increased susceptibility in the subsequent children which interacted synergistically with seasonal dry conditions. Scarlet fever mortality was sharply reduced after 1880 in parallel with falling wheat prices suggesting that the remarkable period of high scarlet fever mortality (1840–80) was dependent on poor nutritive levels during that time.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 117 , Issue 3 , December 1996 , pp. 493 - 499
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

References

1.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Infectious diseases of humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
2.Bolker, BM, Grenfell, BT. Space, persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics. Phil Trans R Soc Lond B 1995; 348: 309–20.Google ScholarPubMed
3.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science 1982; 215: 1053–60.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
4.Olsen, LF, Schaffer, WM. Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics. Science 1990; 249: 499–504.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
5.Bartlett, MS. Measles periodicity and community size. J R Statist Soc A 1957; 120: 48–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
6.Bartlett, MS. The critical community size for measles in the U.S. J R Statist Soc A 1960; 123: 37–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
7.Rand, DA, Wilson, HB. Chaotic stochcasticity: a ubiquitous source of unpredictability in epidemics. Proc R Soc Lond B 1991; 246: 179–84.Google ScholarPubMed
8.Grenfell, BT. Chance and chaos in measles dynamics. J R Statist Soc B 1992; 54: 383–98.Google Scholar
9.Tidd, CW, Olsen, LF, Schaffer, WM. The case for chaos in childhood epidemics. II. Predicting historical epidemics from mathematical models. Proc R Soc Lond B 1993; 254: 257–73.Google ScholarPubMed
10.Duncan, SR, Scott, S, Duncan, CJ. Modelling the different smallpox epidemics in England. Phil Trans R Soc Lond B 1994; 346: 407–19.Google ScholarPubMed
11.Creighton, C. A history of epidemics in Britain. Vol 2. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1894.Google Scholar
12.Stratton, JM. Agricultural records AD 220–1968. London: John Baker Ltd, 1970.Google Scholar
13.Manley, G. Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659–1973. Q J R Meteorol Soc 1974; 100: 389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
14.Wales-Smith, EG. Monthly and annual totals of rainfall representative of Kew, Surrey, from 1697–1970. Meteorological Magazine C 1971; 345–62.Google Scholar
15.Shumway, RH. Applied statistical time series analysis. Wisconsin: Prentice-Hall International Editions, 1988.Google Scholar
16.Duncan, SR, Scott, S, Duncan, CJ. Time series analysis of oscillations in a model population: the effects of plague, pestilence and famine. J Theoret Biol 1992; 158: 293–311.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
17.Duncan, CJ, Duncan, SR, Scott, S. Whooping cough epidemics in London 1701–1812: infection dynamics, seasonal forcing and malnutritional effects. Proc Roy Soc B 1996; 263: 445–50.Google ScholarPubMed
18.Quinn, RW. Comprehensive review of morbidity and mortality trends in rheumatic fever, streptococcal disease, and scarlet fever: the decline of rheumatic fever. Rev Infect Dis 1989; 11: 928–53.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
19.Christie, AB. Infectious diseases. Edinburgh: Churchill Livingstone, 1980.Google Scholar
20.Katz, AR, Morens, DM. Severe streptococcal infections in historical perspective. Clin Infect Dis 1992; 14: 298–307.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
21.Waddy, BB. Climate and respiratory infections. Lancet 1952; ii; 674–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
22.Scott, S, Duncan, SR, Duncan, CJ. Infant mortality and famine: a study in historical epidemiology in northern England. J Epid Comm Hlth 1995; 49: 245–52.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
23.Cronje, G. Tuberculosis and mortality decline in England and Wales, 1851–1910. In: Woods, R, Woodward, J, eds. Urban disease and mortality in nineteenth-century England. London: Batsford Academic, 1984: 79–101.Google Scholar
24.Stein, Z, Susser, M, Saenger, G, Marolla, F. Famine and human development: The Dutch hunger winter of 1944–45. New York, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1975.Google Scholar
25.Hart, N. Famine, maternal nutrition and infant mortality: a re-examination of the Dutch hunger winter. Pop Stud 1993; 47: 27–46.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
26.Barker, DJP. The fetal and infant origins of adult disease. London: BMJ, 1992.Google Scholar
27.Franklin, GF, Powell, JD, Emani-Naeini, A. Feedback control of dynamic systems, 3rd ed.Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1994.Google Scholar