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A mathematical model of Staphylococcus aureus control in dairy herds

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 October 2002

R. N. ZADOKS ,
H. G. ALLORE ,
T. J. HAGENAARS ,
H. W. BARKEMA  and
Y. H. SCHUKKEN
R. N. ZADOKS
Affiliation:
Department of Farm Animal Health, Ruminant Health Unit, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, 3584 Utrecht, The Netherlands Quality Milk Promotion Services, Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca NY 14850-1263, USA
H. G. ALLORE
Affiliation:
Department of Internal Medicine, Yale University, New Haven CT 06510, USA
T. J. HAGENAARS
Affiliation:
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
H. W. BARKEMA
Affiliation:
Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, 550 University Avenue, Charlottetown, Canada C1 4P3
Y. H. SCHUKKEN
Affiliation:
Quality Milk Promotion Services, Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca NY 14850-1263, USA
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Abstract

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An ordinary differential equation model was developed to simulate dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus mastitis. Data to estimate model parameters were obtained from an 18-month observational study in three commercial dairy herds. A deterministic simulation model was constructed to estimate values of the basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproductive number in each herd, and to examine the effect of management on mastitis control. In all herds R0 was below the threshold value 1, indicating control of contagious transmission. Rt was higher than R0 because recovered individuals were more susceptible to infection than individuals without prior infection history. Disease dynamics in two herds were well described by the model. Treatment of subclinical mastitis and prevention of influx of infected individuals contributed to decrease of S. aureus prevalence. For one herd, the model failed to mimic field observations. Explanations for the discrepancy are given in a discussion of current knowledge and model assumptions.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 129 , Issue 2 , October 2002 , pp. 397 - 416
Copyright
© 2002 Cambridge University Press