Measles elimination in Italy: projected impact of the National Elimination Plan

Abstract

A mathematical model was used to evaluate the impact of the Italian Measles National Elimination Plan (NEP), and possible sources of failure in achieving its targets. The model considered two different estimates of force of infection, and the possible effect on measles transmission of the current Italian demographic situation, characterized by a below-replacement fertility. Results suggest that reaching all NEP targets will allow measles elimination to be achieved. In addition, the model suggests that achieving elimination by reaching a 95% first-dose coverage appears unlikely; and that conducting catch-up activities, reaching high vaccination coverage, could interrupt virus circulation, but could not prevent the infection re-emerging before 2020. Also, the introduction of the second dose of measles vaccine seems necessary for achieving and maintaining elimination. Furthermore, current Italian demography appears to be favourable for reaching elimination.