Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T10:00:33.511Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Plague and the Regulation of Numbers in Wild Mammals.

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

C. S. Elton
C. S. Elton
Affiliation:
From the Department of Zoology and Comparative Anatomy, University Museum, Oxford.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

1. A short account is given of the occurrence of plague epidemics in wild mammals other than “domestic” rats and mice. Enough is now known to show that such epidemics are often of great practical importance.

2. The method by which most rodents regulate their numbers is as follows: increase in numbers over several years up to a point at which an epidemic of some sort occurs, which kills off a large proportion of the population. Increase then takes place again, and is followed by another epidemic, and so on indefinitely.

3. These periodic fluctuations are probably controlled by widespread climatic fluctuations, the best evidence for this being that in certain cases the former run synchronously in widely separated countries.

4. There appears to be a dominant short period in fluctuation of three to four years, and a larger movement of period ten to eleven years, both in North America and Europe. The fact that the 11-year sunspot cycle roughly corresponds with the larger movement is significant.

5. The data available from Eastern Asia suggest that there too, small mammals fluctuate periodically in numbers, and with similar periods to those of North America and Europe. There is also some evidence that the maxima of the 10–11-year fluctuations coincide in Eastern Asia and in North America, just as those of the 3–4-year period coincide in Northern Canada, Greenland and Norway.

6. Evidence is given that the plague marmot (Arctomys bobac), and other rodents carrying plague, are liable to these fluctuations. If this proves to be true, it may be possible, when fuller data are available, to forecast with some accuracy the years of epidemics among these animals, and if this can be done we shall have some means of gauging the likelihood of the occurrence of plague outbreaks in the human population of those regions.

7. The available data are admittedly fragmentary, but it is probable that between the years 1931 and 1934 epidemics among A. bobac in Transbaikalia and Mongolia will be severe, and that these events will lead to an increase of plague mortality in man.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Hygiene , Volume 24 , Issue 2 , October 1925 , pp. 138 - 163
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1925

References

Adams, A. (1867). Wanderings of a Naturalist in India, the Western Himalayas and Cashmere. Edinburgh.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, J. A. (1903). Report on the mammals collected in North-Eastern Siberia by the Jesup North Pacific Expedition. Bulletin of American Museum of Natural History, XIX. 101.Google Scholar
Anonymous (1909). Plague and cholera in Russia, Siberia, and the near East. Lancet (London), I. 1863.Google Scholar
Anonymous (1921). Plague and small mammals. Lancet (London), II. 1177.Google Scholar
Anthony, A. W. (1923). Periodical emigrations of mammals. Journal of Mammalogy, IV. 60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, F. M. (1914). Exploration on the Tsangpo or Upper Brahmaputra. Geographical Journal, XLIV. 341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, F. M. (1924). Through Bhutan and Southern Tibet. Geographical Journal, LXIV. 291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrett-Hamilton, G. E. H. and Hinton, M. A. C. (1910). A History of British Mammals. London.Google Scholar
Bonvalot, G. (1891). Across Thibet. London.Google Scholar
Brehm, A. E. (1897). From North Pole to Equator. London.Google Scholar
Carruthers, D. (1913). Unknown Mongolia. London.Google Scholar
Ching, C. S. (1912). Some observations on the Origin of the Plague in Manchouli. Report of the International Plague Conference at Mukden in 1911, p. 27. Manila.Google Scholar
Clemow, F. G. (1900). Plague in Siberia and Mongolia and the tarbagan (Arctomys bobac). Journal of Tropical Medicine, p. 169.Google Scholar
Collet, R. (1912). Norges Pattedyr. Christiania.Google Scholar
Corthorn, A. M. (1899). Plague in monkeys and squirrels. Indian Medical Gazette, XXXIV. 81.Google Scholar
Elton, C. S. (1924). Periodic fluctuations in the numbers of animals: their causes and effects. British Journal of Experimental Biology, II. 119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feilden, H. W. (1878). Appendix II: Mammalia, in Nares, G. S., Narrative of a voyage to the Polar Sea. London.Google Scholar
Giebel, C. G. (1859). Die Saügethiere, in zoologische, anatomische, und palaeontologische Beziehung. Leipzig.Google Scholar
Greenwood, M. (1924). The life and scientific work of Arthur William Bacot. Journ. of Hygiene, XXII. 265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haydon, L. G. (1921). Sporadic outbreaks of Plague in the Union of South Africa. Lancet (London), II. 1103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, G. and Hume, A. O. (1873). Lahore to Yārkand. London.Google Scholar
Hewitt, C. G. (1921). The conservation of the wild life of Canada. New York.Google Scholar
Hooker, J. D. (1854). Himalayan Journals, II. London.Google Scholar
Horne, H. (1912). Eine Lemmingpest und eine Meerschweinchenepizootie. Centralblatt für Bakteriologie, Parasitenkunde, und Infektionskrankheiten, Jena, LXVI. (orig.), 169.Google Scholar
Huntingdon, E. (1923). Earth and Sun. New Haven.Google Scholar
Jettmar, H. M. (1923). Erfahrungen über die Pest in Transbaikalien. Zeitschrift für Hygiene, XCVII. 322.Google Scholar
Lansdall, H. (1885). Russian Central Asia, II. London.Google Scholar
Leger, M. and Baury, A. (1922). La Musaraigne, Crocidura stampflii, et la peste au Sénégal. Comptes Rendus Académie des Sciences, Paris, CLXXIV. 423.Google Scholar
Liston, W. G. (1913). The epidemiology of bubonic and pneumonic plague contrasted. 17th International Congress of Medicine, London, 1917, Part I, p. 2.Google Scholar
Lockyer, N. and Lockyer, J. S. (1904). The behaviour of the short-period atmospheric pressure variation over the earth's surface. Proc. Royal Society, London, LXXIII. 457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manniche, A. L. V. (1910). The terrestrial mammals and birds of North-East Greenland. Meddelelser om Grønland, XLV. 1. Copenhagen.Google Scholar
Manson-Bahr, P. H. (1921). Manson's Tropical Diseases. London.Google Scholar
Maxwell, H. E. and others (1893). The plague of field voles in Scotland. Zoologist, p. 121.Google Scholar
Middendorff, A. T. von (1875). Reise in dem äussersten Norden und Osten Siberiens, IV. Part 2: Die Thierwelt Siberiens. St Petersburg.Google Scholar
Nansen, F. (1914). Through Siberia. London.Google Scholar
Nelson, E. W. (1909). The rabbits of North America. North American Fauna, XXIX. (U.S. Dept. of Agricult., Bureau of Biological Survey).Google Scholar
Petrie, G. F. (1924). A commentary on recent plague investigations in Transbaikalia and southern Russia. Journ. of Hygiene, XXII. 397.Google Scholar
Piper, S. E. (1908). Mouse plagues, their control and prevention. Yearbook of U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, p. 301.Google Scholar
Preble, E. A. (1908). A biological investigation of the Athabasca-Mackenzie region. North American Fauna, XXVII. (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Biological Survey).Google Scholar
Prejevalsky, N. (1879). From Kulja across the Tian Shan to Lob Nor. London.Google Scholar
Radde, G. (1862). Reisen im Süden von Ost-Siberiens in den Jahren 1855–59, I. St Petersburg.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rawling, C. G. (1905). The Great Plateau. London.Google Scholar
Rockhill, W. W. (1891). The Land of the Lamas. London.Google Scholar
Rockhill, W. W. (1894). Diary of a journey through Mongolia and Tibet in 1891 and 1892. Washington.Google Scholar
Schander, R. and Meyer, R. (1923). Zur Bekämpfung der Feldmaüse. Arch. f. Naturgeschichte, LXXXIX. Abt. A, No. 9, p. 1.Google Scholar
Simpson, W. J. (1905). A Treatise on Plague. Cambridge.Google Scholar
Sowerby, A. C. (1908). Sport and Science on the Sino-Mongolian frontier. London.Google Scholar
Strachey, R. (1900). Narrative of a journey…in Western Tibet undertaken in Sept. 1848. Geographical Journal, XV. 243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tchumyé, S. B. po (1909). Report of Imperial Plague Commission in 1908: cited anonymously in Lancet (London), I. 1197.Google Scholar
Troupe, R. S. (1921). The Silviculture of Indian Trees, III. 982. Oxford.Google Scholar
Turner, S. (1911). Siberia. London.Google Scholar
Winge, H. (1902). Grønlands Pattedyr. Meddelelser om Grønland, XXI. 319. Copenhagen.Google Scholar
Wrangell, F. von (1844). Narrative of an Expedition to the Polar Sea, in the years 1820–23. London.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1913). Investigations into the Relationship of the Tarbagan (Mongolian marmot) to Plague. Lancet (London), II. 529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1914). Investigations into the Relationship of the Tarbagan (Mongolian marmot) to Plague. 17th International Congress of Medicine in London in 1914, Part 2, p. 19.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1922 a). Plague in the Orient with special reference to the Manchurian outbreaks. Journ. of Hygiene, XXI. 62.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1922 b). The rôle of the Tarbagan in the Epidemiology of Plague. North Manchurian Plague Prevention Service Reports, 1918–22, p. 83.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1923 a). The second Pneumonic Plague Outbreak in Manchuria, 1920–21. Journ. of Hygiene, XXI. 262.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1923 b). The Tarbagan or Siberian Marmot. The China Journal of Science and Arts, I. 39. Shanghai.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) (1924). A further note on natural and experimental Plague in Tarbagans. Journ. of Hygiene, XXII. 329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) and Eberson, F. (1917). Transmission of pneumonic and septicaemic Plague among Marmots. North Manchurian Plague Prevention Service Reports, 1914–17.Google Scholar
Wu Lien-Teh, (Tuck, G. L.) Han, C. W. and Pollitzer, R. (1923). Plague in Manchuria. 2. The rôle of the tarbagan in the epidemiology of plague. Journ. of Hygiene, XXI. 329.Google Scholar