The main objective of this paper is to address the following question: are the containment measures imposed by most of the world governments effective and sufficient to stop the epidemic of COVID-19 beyond the lock-down period? In this paper, we propose a mathematical model which allows us to investigate and analyse this problem. We show by means of the reproductive number, ${\cal R}_0$ that the containment measures appear to have slowed the growth of the outbreak. Nevertheless, these measures remain only effective as long as a very large fraction of population, p, greater than the critical value $1-1/{\cal R}_0$ remains confined. Using French current data, we give some simulation experiments with five scenarios including: (i) the validation of model with p estimated to 93%, (ii) the study of the effectiveness of containment measures, (iii) the study of the effectiveness of the large-scale testing, (iv) the study of the social distancing and wearing masks measures and (v) the study taking into account the combination of the large-scale test of detection of infected individuals and the social distancing with linear progressive easing of restrictions. The latter scenario was shown to be effective at overcoming the outbreak if the transmission rate decreases to 75% and the number of tests of detection is multiplied by three. We also noticed that if the measures studied in our five scenarios are taken separately then the second wave might occur at least as far as the parameter values remain unchanged.

This study presents the main motivation to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic, a major threat to the whole world from the day when it first emerged in China city of Wuhan. Predictions on the number of cases of COVID-19 are crucial in order to prevent and control the outbreak. In this research study, an artificial neural network with rectifying linear unit-based technique is implemented to predict the number of deaths, recovered and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan by using previous data of 137 days of COVID-19 cases from the day 25 February 2020 when the first two cases were confirmed, until 10 July 2020. The collected data were divided into training and test data which were used to test the efficiency of the proposed technique. Furthermore, future predictions have been made by the proposed technique for the next 7 days while training the model on whole available data.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19), while mild in most cases, has nevertheless caused significant mortality. The measures adopted in most countries to contain it have led to colossal social and economic disruptions, which will impact the medium- and long-term health outcomes for many communities. In this paper, we deliberate on the reality and facts surrounding the disease. For comparison, we present data from past pandemics, some of which claimed more lives than COVID-19. Mortality data on road traffic crashes and other non-communicable diseases, which cause more deaths each year than COVID-19 has so far, is also provided. The indirect, serious health and social effects are briefly discussed. We also deliberate on how misinformation, confusion stemming from contrasting expert statements, and lack of international coordination may have influenced the public perception of the illness and increased fear and uncertainty. With pandemics and similar problems likely to re-occur, we call for evidence-based decisions, the restoration of responsible journalism and communication built on a solid scientific foundation.

In recent years, men who have sex with men (MSM) constitute a major group of HIV transmission in China. High primary drug-resistance (PDR) rate in MSM also represents a serious challenge for the Chinese antiretroviral therapy (ART) program. To assess the efficiency of ART in controlling HIV/AIDS infection among MSM, we developed a compartmental model for the annually reported HIV/AIDS MSM from 2007 to 2019 in the Zhejiang Province of China. R0 was 2.3946 (95% CI (2.2961–2.4881)). We predict that 90% of diagnosed HIV/AIDS individuals will have received treatment till 2020, while the proportion of the diagnosed remains as low as 40%. Even when the proportion of the diagnosed reaches 90%, R0 is still larger than the level of AIDS epidemic elimination. ART can effectively control the spread of HIV, even in the presence of drug resistance. The 90-90-90 strategy alone may not eliminate the HIV epidemic in Chinese MSM. Behavioural and biologic interventions are the most effective interventions to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic among MSM.

Antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteraemias (GNB) are increasing in incidence. We aimed to investigate the impact of empirical antibiotic therapy on clinical outcomes by carrying out an observational 6-year cohort study of patients at a teaching hospital with community-onset Escherichia coli bacteraemia (ECB), Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteraemia (KPB) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteraemia (PsAB). Antibiotic therapy was considered concordant if the organism was sensitive in vitro and discordant if resistant. We estimated the association between concordant vs. discordant empirical antibiotic therapy on odds of in-hospital death and ICU admission for KPB and ECB. Of 1380 patients, 1103 (79.9%) had ECB, 189 (13.7%) KPB and 88 (6.4%) PsAB. Discordant therapy was not associated with increased odds of either outcome. For ECB, severe illness and non-urinary source were associated with increased odds of both outcomes (OR of in-hospital death for non-urinary source 3.21, 95% CI 1.73–5.97). For KPB, discordant therapy was associated with in-hospital death on univariable but not multivariable analysis. Illness severity was associated with increased odds of both outcomes. These findings suggest broadening of therapy for low-risk patients with community-onset GNB is not warranted. Future research should focus on the relationship between patient outcomes, clinical factors, infection focus and causative organism and resistance profile.

Data on the possibility of transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the provision of chronic haemodialysis, which often entails many person-to-person contacts, are lacking. We report a follow-up of the in-centre contacts of three positive chronic haemodialysis patients. Under strict preventive measures, only one patient out of 21 patient-contacts and 29 personnel-contacts tested positive within 2 weeks after the last contact. This patient, case #3, most likely became infected during unprotected, organised group transportation to the dialysis centre.

Teenagers are important carriers of Neisseria meningitidis, which is a leading cause of invasive meningococcal disease. In China, the carriage rate and risk factors among teenagers are unclear. The present study presents a retrospective analysis of epidemiological data for N. meningitidis carriage from 2013 to 2017 in Suizhou city, China. The carriage rates were 3.26%, 2.22%, 3.33%, 3.53% and 9.88% for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. From 2014 to 2017, the carriage rate in the 15- to 19-year-old age group (teenagers) was the highest and significantly higher than that in remain age groups. Subsequently, a larger scale survey (December 2017) for carriage rate and relative risk factors (population density, time spent in the classroom, gender and antibiotics use) were investigated on the teenagers (15- to 19-year-old age) at the same school. The carriage rate was still high at 33.48% (223/663) and varied greatly from 6.56% to 52.94% in a different class. Population density of the classroom was found to be a significant risk factor for carriage, and 1.4 persons/m2 is recommended as the maximum classroom density. Further, higher male gender ratio and more time spent in the classroom were also significantly associated with higher carriage. Finally, antibiotic use was associated with a significantly lower carriage rate. All the results imply that attention should be paid to the teenagers and various measures can be taken to reduce the N. meningitidis carriage, to prevent and control the outbreak of IMD.

TLR3 and IL-10 play a crucial role in antiviral defence. However, there is a controversy between TLR3 rs3775291 and IL-10 rs1800871 polymorphisms and the risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the two single nucleotide mutations and the risk of HBV infection by meta-analysis. Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, China Wanfang database were searched for the case-control studies on the relationship between TLR3 rs3775291 and IL-10 rs1800871 polymorphism and susceptibility to HBV, updated to June 2020. The data were analysed by Stata 15.0 software. A total of 22 articles were included. The results showed that in the analysis of IL10 rs1800871 polymorphism and the risk of HBV infection, the pooled OR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.06–1.37), 1.28 (95% CI 1.04–1.56) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.06–1.37) and 1.40 (95% CI 1.07–1.83) in the allele model (C vs. T), dominant model (CC+CT vs. TT), recessive model (CC vs. CT+TT) and homozygous model (CC vs. TT), respectively. There was no statistical significance in the heterozygote model. A subgroup analysis of the Asian population showed similar results. The analysis of TLR3 rs3775291 polymorphism and the risk of HBV showed that in the allele model (T vs. C), the pooled OR was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05–1.61). Except for the recessive model, no significances were found in other genetic models. In conclusion, TLR3 rs3775291 and IL-10 rs1800871 polymorphisms are associated with the risk of HBV. Allele C and genotype CC at IL10 rs1800871 loci, as well as allele T and genotype TT at TLR rs3775291 loci, may increase susceptibility to Hepatitis B infection.

The pandemic due to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has emerged as a serious global public health issue. Since the start of the outbreak, the importance of hand-hygiene and respiratory protection to prevent the spread of the virus has been the prime focus for infection control. Health regulatory organisations have produced guidelines for the formulation of hand sanitisers to the manufacturing industries. This review summarises the studies on alcohol-based hand sanitisers and their disinfectant activity against SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses. The literature shows that the type and concentration of alcohol, formulation and nature of product, presence of excipients, applied volume, contact time and viral contamination load are critical factors that determine the effectiveness of hand sanitisers.

We used social network analysis (SNA) to study the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Karnataka, India, and to assess the potential of SNA as a tool for outbreak monitoring and control. We analysed contact tracing data of 1147 COVID-19 positive cases (mean age 34.91 years, 61.99% aged 11–40, 742 males), anonymised and made public by the Karnataka government. Software tools, Cytoscape and Gephi, were used to create SNA graphics and determine network attributes of nodes (cases) and edges (directed links from source to target patients). Outdegree was 1–47 for 199 (17.35%) nodes, and betweenness, 0.5–87 for 89 (7.76%) nodes. Men had higher mean outdegree and women, higher mean betweenness. Delhi was the exogenous source of 17.44% cases. Bangalore city had the highest caseload in the state (229, 20%), but comparatively low cluster formation. Thirty-four (2.96%) ‘super-spreaders’ (outdegree ⩾ 5) caused 60% of the transmissions. Real-time social network visualisation can allow healthcare administrators to flag evolving hotspots and pinpoint key actors in transmission. Prioritising these areas and individuals for rigorous containment could help minimise resource outlay and potentially achieve a significant reduction in COVID-19 transmission.

It has been speculated that some drugs can be used against SARS-CoV-2. As for antiretrovirals, the follow-up of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak may help to understand the potential protective effect of PrEP against SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to identify associations between oral PrEP use and COVID-19-related symptoms self-reporting. Phone call interviews or digital investigation (through WhatsApp® or e-mail) about oral PrEP regular use, social distancing, exposure to suspected or confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related symptoms. Among 108 individuals, the majority were cisgender, white and gay men. Although most of the individuals engaged in social distancing (68.52%), they kept on taking PrEP (75.93%). Few people have had contact with suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 (12.04%), but some had COVID-19-related symptoms the month before the interview (27.78%) including rhinorrheoa (56.67%), cough (53.33%), asthaenia (50.00%) and headache (43.33%). Also, oral PrEP was associated with lower self-reporting COVID-19-symptoms (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.07–0.96, P = 0.04; h = 0.92) even after controlling confounders as social distancing, age, body-mass index and morbidities . In our sample, the regular use of oral PrEP was associated with lower self-reporting of COVID-19-related symptoms during the outbreak in São Paulo, Brazil.

Domestic ruminants (cattle, goats and sheep) are considered to be the main reservoirs for human Coxiella burnetii infection. However, there is still a need to assess the specific contribution of cattle. Indeed, most seroprevalence studies in humans were carried out in areas comprising both cattle and small ruminants, the latter being systematically implicated in human Q fever outbreaks. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study in areas where C. burnetii infection in cattle was endemic, where the density of cattle and small ruminant farms were respectively high and very low. The aim was to estimate the seroprevalence rates among two occupational (cattle farmers and livestock veterinarians), and one non-occupational (general adult population) risk groups. Sera were collected in 176 cattle farmers, 45 veterinarians and 347 blood donors, and tested for phase I and II antibodies using immunofluorescence assay. Seroprevalence rates were 56.3% among cattle farmers, 88.9% among veterinarians and 12.7% among blood donors. This suggests that a specific risk for acquiring C. burnetii infection from cattle in endemically infected areas exists, mainly for occupational risk groups, but also for the general population. Further research is needed to identify risk factors for C. burnetii infection in humans in such areas.

In Spain, the epidemic curve caused by COVID-19 has reached its peak in the last days of March. The implementation of the blockade derived from the declaration of the state of alarm on 14th March has raised a discussion on how and when to deal with the unblocking. In this paper, we intend to add information that may help by using epidemic simulation techniques with stochastic individual contact models and several extensions.

This study determined farm management factors associated with long-duration bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns disclosed in the period 23 May 2016 to 21 May 2018; a study area not previously subject to investigation in Northern Ireland. A farm-level epidemiological investigation (n = 2935) was completed when one or more Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Test (SICCT) reactors or when one or more confirmed (positive histological and/or bacteriological result) lesion at routine slaughter were disclosed. A case-control study design was used to construct an explanatory set of management factors associated with long-duration bTB herd breakdowns; with a case (n = 191) defined as an investigation into a breakdown of 365 days or longer. Purchase of infected animal(s) had the strongest association as the most likely source of infection for long-duration bTB herd breakdowns followed by badgers and then cattle-to-cattle contiguous herd spread. However, 73.5% (95% CI 61.1–85.9%) of the herd type contributing to the purchase of infection source were defined as beef fattening herds. This result demonstrates two subpopulations of prolonged bTB breakdowns, the first being beef fattening herds with main source continuous purchase of infected animals and a second group of primary production herds (dairy, beef cows and mixed) with risk from multiple sources.

Forecasting the epidemics of the diseases is very valuable in planning and supplying resources effectively. This study aims to estimate the epidemiological trends of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence and mortality using the advanced α-Sutte Indicator, and its prediction accuracy level was compared with the most frequently adopted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Time-series analysis was performed based on the total confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the world, Brazil, Peru, Canada and Chile between 27 February 2020 and 30 June 2020. By comparing the prediction reliability indices, including the root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean error rate, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percentage error, the α-Sutte Indicator was found to produce lower forecasting error rates than the ARIMA model in all data apart from the prevalence testing set globally. The α-Sutte Indicator can be recommended as a useful tool to nowcast and forecast the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality of these regions except for the prevalence around the globe in the near future, which will help policymakers to plan and prepare health resources effectively. Also, the findings of our study may have managerial implications for the outbreak in other countries.

Bordetella bronchiseptica is a potential zoonotic pathogen, which mainly causes respiratory diseases in humans and a variety of animal species. B. bronchiseptica is one of the important pathogens isolated from rabbits in Fujian Province. However, the knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of the B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province is largely unknown. In this study, 219 B. bronchiseptica isolates recovered from lung samples of dead rabbits with respiratory diseases in Fujian Province were characterised by multi-locus sequencing typing, screening virulence genes and testing antimicrobial susceptibility. The results showed that the 219 isolates were typed into 11 sequence types (STs) including five known STs (ST6, ST10, ST12, ST14 and ST33) and six new STs (ST88, ST89, ST90, ST91, ST92 and ST93) and the ST33 (30.14%, 66/219), ST14 (26.94%, 59/219) and ST12 (16.44%, 36/219) were the three most prevalent STs. Surprisingly, all the 219 isolates carried the five virulence genes (fhaB, prn, cyaA, dnt and bteA) in the polymerase chain reaction screening. Moreover, the isolates were resistant to cefixime, ceftizoxime, cefatriaxone and ampicillin at rates of 33.33%, 31.05%, 11.87% and 3.20%, respectively. This study showed the genetic diversity of B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province, and the colonisation of the human-associated ST12 strain in rabbits in Fujian Province. The results might be useful for monitoring the epidemic strains, developing preventive methods and preventing the transmission of epidemic strains from rabbits to humans.

The mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differs between countries and regions. This study aimed to clarify the clinical characteristics of imported and second-generation cases in Shaanxi. This study included 134 COVID-19 cases in Shaanxi outside Wuhan. Clinical data were compared between severe and non-severe cases. We further profiled the dynamic laboratory findings of some patients. In total, 34.3% of the 134 patients were severe cases, 11.2% had complications. As of 7 March 2020, 91.8% patients were discharged and one patient (0.7%) died. Age, lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, direct bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase and hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase showed difference between severe and no-severe cases (all P < 0.05). Baseline lymphocyte count was higher in survived patients than in non-survivor case, and it increased as the condition improved, but declined sharply when death occurred. The interleukin-6 (IL-6) level displayed a downtrend in survivors, but rose very high in the death case. Pulmonary fibrosis was found on later chest computed tomography images in 51.5% of the pneumonia cases. Imported and second-generation cases outside Wuhan had a better prognosis than initial cases in Wuhan. Lymphocyte count and IL-6 level could be used for evaluating prognosis. Pulmonary fibrosis as the sequelae of COVID-19 should be taken into account.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a disease with a high case-fatality rate that is caused by infection with the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Five electronic databases were systematically searched to identify relevant articles published from 1 January 2011 to 1 December 2019. The pooled rates with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated by a fixed-effect or random-effect model analysis. The results showed that 92 articles were included in this meta-analysis. For the confirmed SFTS cases, the case-fatality rate was 0.15 (95% CI 0.11, 0.18). Two hundred and ninety-six of 1384 SFTS patients indicated that they had been bitten by ticks and the biting rate was 0.21 (95% CI 0.16, 0.26). The overall pooled seroprevalence of SFTSV antibodies among the healthy population was 0.04 (95% CI 0.03, 0.05). For the overall seroprevalence of SFTSV in animals, the seroprevalence of SFTSV was 0.25 (95% CI 0.20, 0.29). The infection rate of SFTSV in ticks was 0.08 (95% CI 0.05, 0.11). In conclusion, ticks can serve as transmitting vectors of SFTSVs and reservoir hosts. Animals can be infected by tick bites, and as a reservoir host, SFTSV circulates continuously between animals and ticks in nature. Humans are infected by tick bites and direct contact with patient secretions.

Gonorrhoea cases in women have been rising in Australia in the 2010s but the cause of the increase is not well understood. This cross-sectional study aimed to describe the characteristics of genital gonorrhoea infection in women attending the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Australia. Gonorrhoea cases were diagnosed by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) and/or culture. Genitourinary specimens were obtained in 12 869 clinic visits in women aged 16 years or above between August 2017 and August 2018. Genital gonorrhoea was detected in 142 (1.1%) of the visits. Almost half of the cases were asymptomatic, 47.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8–56.1%]; yellow, green or pus-like vaginal discharge was present in 11.3% (95% CI 7.0–17.6%) and other genital symptoms in 40.8% (95% CI 33.1–49.1%) of the cases. The mean time between last sexual contact and onset of symptoms was 7.3 days and between the onset of symptoms to presentation to the clinic was 12.1 days. Half of the cases of genital gonorrhoea among women are asymptomatic and these cases would have been missed by testing of only symptomatic women. Further epidemiological and behavioural research is required to understand the temporal changes in sexual practices among women in Australia.