Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-2h6rp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-20T11:46:27.169Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The stadial model of alignment formation (SMAF): Conceptualising strategic alignments between states

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 September 2024

Alexander Korolev*
Affiliation:
School of Social Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Abstract

Despite being ubiquitously used, the concept of alignment remains inchoate. Existing literature offers more than 30 interpretations of the term and very few attempts to develop an objective indicators-based metric of alignment. This state of the field makes assessments of the degree to which states are aligned problematic. This article systematises the theoretical knowledge about alliances, alignments, strategic partnerships, and other forms of cooperation and draws on some empirical observations to develop a ‘stadial model of alignment formation’ (SMAF). The model conceptualises, operationalises, measures, and explains interstate alignment with greater precision and consistency. It also includes the explanatory factors in the form of the three balances – the balance of power, the balance of threat, and the balance of interest – and connections between them located along the stages of alignment formation. As such, the SMAF framework gauges the relative scale and depth of strategic alignments and can facilitate comparative analysis.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The British International Studies Association.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Michael D. Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics (Denver, CO: University of Denver Press, 1982), p. 14.

2 James D. Morrow, ‘Alliances, credibility, and peacetime costs’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38:2 (1994), pp. 270–97.

3 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987), p. 1.

4 Colleen Chidley, ‘Towards a framework of alignment in International Relations’, Politikon, 41:1 (2014), pp. 141–57 (p. 147).

5 Alexander Lanoszka, Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2022), p. 17.

6 Bruno Tertrais, ‘The changing nature of military alliances’, Washington Quarterly, 27:2 (2004), pp. 133–50 (p. 100).

7 Thomas S. Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”: The shifting paradigm of international security cooperation. Toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment’, Review of International Studies, 38:1 (2012), pp. 53–76 (p. 60).

8 Moritz S. Graefrath and Marcel Jahn, ‘Conceptualising interstate cooperation’, International Theory, 15:1 (2023), pp. 24–52.

9 Tertrais, ‘The changing nature of military alliances’, p. 149.

10 These two are Edwin H. Fedder, ‘The concept of alliance’, International Studies Quarterly, 12:1 (1968), pp. 65–86 and Bruce M. Russett, ‘An empirical typology of international military alliances’, Midwest Journal of Political Science, 15:2 (1971), pp. 262–89.

11 George Liska, Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press, 1962), p. 3.

12 Ole R. Holsti, P. Terrence Hopmann, and John D. Sullivan, Unity and Disintegration in International Alliances (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973), p. 2.

13 Glenn H. Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’, International Organization, 45:1 (1991), pp. 121–42 (p. 121).

14 Lanoszka, Military Alliances, p. 13.

15 Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’, p. 54.

16 Alexander Korolev, ‘On the verge of an alliance: Contemporary China–Russia military cooperation’, Asian Security, 15:3 (2019), pp. 233–52.

17 Elaboration on how these assumptions inform the analysis follows in the third section.

18 Walt, The Origins of Alliances, p. 1.

19 Patricia A. Weitsman, Dangerous Alliances: Proponents of Peace, Weapons of War (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004), p. 27.

20 Michael N. Barnett and Jack S. Levy, ‘Domestic sources of alliances and alignments: The case of Egypt, 1962–1973’, International Organization, 45:3 (1991), pp. 369–95 (pp. 370–1).

21 Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 3.

22 See Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); Dan Reiter, ‘Learning, realism, and alliances: The weight of the shadow of the past’, World Politics, 46:4 (1994), pp. 490–526; Brett Ashley Leeds, ‘Do alliances deter aggression? The influence of military alliances on the initiation of militarised interstate disputes’, American Journal of Political Science, 47:3 (2003), pp. 427–39; Brian Lai and Dan Reiter, ‘Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances, 1816–1992’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44:2 (2000), pp. 203–27; Alastair Smith, ‘Alliance formation and war’, International Studies Quarterly, 39:4 (1995), pp. 405–25; D. Scott Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration, 1816–1984’, American Journal of Political Science, 41:3 (1997), pp. 846–78; Liska, Nations in Alliance; Holsti, Hopmann, and Sullivan, Unity and Disintegration; J. David Singer and Melvin Small, ‘Formal alliances, 1815–1939: A quantitative description’, Journal of Peace Research, 3:1 (1966), pp. 1–31; Russett, ‘An empirical typology’; James D. Morrow, ‘Alliances: Why write them down?’, Annual Review of Political Science, 3:1 (2000), pp. 63–83.

23 Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 4.

24 Leeds, ‘Do alliances deter aggression?’, p. 427.

25 Tertrais, ‘The changing nature of military alliances’, p. 136.

26 Reiter, ‘Learning, realism, and alliances’, p. 495.

27 Russett, ‘An empirical typology’, p. 262–3.

28 Singer and Small, ‘Formal alliances’.

29 John H. Herz, International Politics in The Atomic Age (New York: Columbia University Press, 1965), p. 124.

30 Gerald L. Sorokin, ‘Arms, alliances, and security tradeoffs in enduring rivalries’, International Studies Quarterly, 38:3 (1994), pp. 421–46 (p. 423).

31 Lanoszka, Military Alliances, p. 15.

32 To appreciate the variety of alliance incentives ranging from some loose general goals to strictly defined purposes of providing deterrence or fighting wars, as well as the ways of fighting wars, see Singer and Small, ‘Formal alliances’; Fedder, ‘The concept of alliance’; Holsti, Hopmann, and Sullivan, Unity and Disintegration; Walt, The Origins of Alliances; Barnett and Levy, ‘Domestic sources of alliances and alignments’; Snyder, Alliance Politics; Randall L. Schweller, ‘Bandwagoning for profit: Bringing the revisionist state back in’, International Security, 19:1 (1994), pp. 72–107; Stefan Bergsmann, ‘The concept of military alliance’, in Erich Reiter and Heinz Gärtner (eds), Small States and Alliances (New York: Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, 2001), pp. 25–37; Trevor Salmon, ‘The European Union: Just an alliance or a military alliance?’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 29:5 (2006), pp. 813–42.

33 Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’, p. 65.

34 Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Ryan Grauer, ‘Understanding battlefield coalitions’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 45:2 (2022), pp. 177–85.

35 Daniel S. Morey, ‘Military coalitions and the outcome of interstate wars’, Foreign Policy Analysis, 12:4 (2016), pp. 533–51 (p. 535); Patricia A. Weitsman, ‘Wartime alliances versus coalition warfare: How institutional structure matters in the multilateral prosecution of wars’, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 4:2 (2010), pp. 113–38.

36 Salmon, ‘The European Union’, p. 839.

37 Sean Kay, ‘What is a strategic partnership?’, Problems of Post-Communism, 47:3 (2000), pp. 15–24.

38 Kay, ‘What is a strategic partnership’, p. 15.

39 Ibid., p. 17.

40 Thomas S. Wilkins, ‘From strategic partnership to strategic alliance? Australia–Japan security ties and the Asia-Pacific’, Asia Policy, 20 (2015), pp. 81–112 (p. 81).

41 Georg Strüver, ‘International alignment between interests and ideology: The case of China’s partnership diplomacy’, German Institute of Global and Area Studies Working Paper 283 (2016).

42 Chaka Ferguson, ‘The strategic use of soft balancing: The normative dimensions of the Chinese–Russian “strategic partnership”’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 35:2 (2012), pp. 197–222 (p. 205).

43 For an extensive review of these and other terms associated with terminological ambiguity around China–Russia relations, see Alexander Korolev, China–Russia Strategic Alignment in International Politics (Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2022), pp. 16–19.

44 Muhsin Puthan Purayil, ‘The rise of China and the question of an Indo-US alliance: A perspective from India’, Asian Affairs, 52:1 (2021), pp. 62–78 (p. 63).

45 Walter C. Ladwig III and Anit Mukherjee, ‘Sailing together or ships passing in the night? India and the United States in Southeast Asia’, Asia Policy, 26:1 (2019), pp. 51–76 (p. 52).

46 Joshua T. White, ‘After the foundational agreements: An agenda for US–India defense and security cooperation’, Foreign Policy at Brookings (January 2021).

47 Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne, ‘Great expectations: Asking too much of the US–India strategic partnership’, The Washington Quarterly, 42:3 (2019), pp. 41–64.

48 Cara Abercrombie, ‘Realising the potential: Mature defense cooperation and the US–India strategic partnership’, Asia Policy, 26:1 (2019), pp. 119–44 (p. 120).

49 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), p. 15.

50 See Mancur Olson and Richard Zeckhauser, ‘An economic theory of alliances’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 48:3 (1966), pp. 266–79; William H. Riker, The Theory of Political Coalitions (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1962).

51 Russett, ‘An empirical typology’.

52 Morrow, ‘Alliances, credibility, and peacetime costs’; Smith, ‘Alliance formation and war’; Michael W. Simon and Erik Gartzke, ‘Political system similarity and the choice of allies: Do democracies flock together, or do opposites attract?’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40:4 (1996), pp. 617–35; Brett Ashley Leeds and Sezi Anac, ‘Alliance institutionalisation and alliance performance’, International Interactions, 31:3 (2005), pp. 183–202.

53 Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’, p. 855.

54 Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’, p. 69.

55 Thomas S. Wilkins, ‘Russo-Chinese strategic partnership: A new form of security cooperation?’, Contemporary Security Policy, 29:2 (2008), pp. 358–83 (p. 367).

56 Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’, p. 124.

57 Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’, p. 64.

58 Weitsman, ‘Wartime alliances’, p. 115; Morey, ‘Military coalitions’, p. 535; Cappella Zielinski, and Grauer, ‘Understanding battlefield coalitions’, p. 179.

59 Morey, ‘Military coalitions’, p. 535.

60 Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’, p. 125.

61 Christine Oliver, ‘The antecedents of deinstitutionalization’, Organization Studies, 13:4 (1992), pp. 563–88.

62 Richard Javad Heydarian, ‘Tragedy of small power politics: Duterte and the shifting sands of Philippine foreign policy’, Asian Security, 13:3 (2017), pp. 220–36 (p. 233).

63 Korolev, ‘On the verge of an alliance’, p. 241.

64 Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’, p. 847; Reiter, ‘Learning, realism, and alliances’, p. 495; Salmon, ‘The European Union’, p. 819; Lanoszka, Military Alliances, p. 14.

65 Douglas M. Gibler, International Military Alliances, 1648–2008 (Version 4.1.) [Data set], CQ Press, 2009, available at: {https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/formal-alliances}; Brett Ashley Leeds, The Alliance Treaty Obligation and Provisions Project (ATOP) (Version 4.01.) [Data set], 2018, available at: {http://www.atopdata.org/}.

66 Hans J. Morgenthau, ‘Alliances in theory and practice’, in Arnold Wolfers (ed.), Alliance Policy in the Cold War (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1976), pp. 184–212 (p. 183).

67 Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’, p. 125.

68 Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’, pp. 60–1.

69 Leeds and Anac, ‘Alliance institutionalisation and alliance performance’, p. 197.

70 Glenn H. Snyder, ‘The security dilemma in alliance politics’, World Politics, 36:4 (1984), pp. 461–95 (p. 473).

71 Wilkins, ‘Russo-Chinese strategic partnership’, p. 371; Lanoszka, Military Alliances, p. 14.

72 Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 7.

73 Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 123.

74 Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’; Lai and Reiter, ‘Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances’; Simon and Gartzke, ‘Political system similarity and the choice of allies’.

75 William Tow, ‘Alliances and alignments in the twenty-first century’, in Brendan Taylor (ed.), Australia as an Asia-Pacific Regional Power: Friendships in Flux? (London: Routledge, 2007), pp. 12–29, as cited in Wilkins, ‘From strategic partnership to strategic alliance’, p. 85.

76 Ward, Research Gaps in Alliance Dynamics, p. 7.

77 Wilkins, ‘From strategic partnership to strategic alliance’.

78 Fedder, ‘The concept of alliance’; Holsti, Hopmann, and Sullivan, Unity and Disintegration; Walt, The Origins of Alliances; Barnett and Levy, ‘Domestic sources of alliances and alignments’; Stephen M. Walt, ‘Alliance’, in Joel Krieger (ed.), The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), p. 20; Wilkins, ‘“Alignment”, not “alliance”’; Wilkins, ‘From strategic partnership to strategic alliance’; Korolev, ‘On the verge of an alliance’.

79 Lanoszka, Military Alliances, p. 15.

80 Brett V. Benson and Joshua D. Clinton, ‘Assessing the variation of formal military alliances’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60:5 (2016), pp. 866–98 (p. 876).

81 Edward D. Mansfield and Rachel Bronson, ‘Alliances, preferential trading arrangements, and international trade’, American Political Science Review, 91:1 (1997), pp. 94–107.

82 Harry Bliss and Bruce Russett, ‘Democratic trading partners: The liberal connection, 1962–1989’, The Journal of Politics, 60:4 (1998), pp. 1126–47.

83 Douglas M. Gibler, ‘Alliances that never balance: The territorial settlement treaty’, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 15:1 (1996), pp. 75–97 (p. 89).

84 Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 359.

85 Snyder, Alliance Politics, pp. 350–63.

86 Leeds and Anac, ‘Alliance institutionalisation and alliance performance’.

87 Russett, ‘An empirical typology’, p. 267.

88 Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’, p. 855.

89 Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 353.

90 Ethan Meick, ‘China–Russia military-to-military relations: Moving toward a higher level of cooperation’, US–China Economic and Security Review Commission (20 March 2017), available at: {https://www.uscc.gov/research/china-russia-military-military-relations-moving-toward-higher-level-cooperation}.

91 Benson and Clinton, ‘Assessing the variation of formal military alliances’.

92 Tertrais, ‘The changing nature of military alliances’, p. 141.

93 Korolev, ‘On the verge of an alliance’, p. 236.

94 Wilkins, ‘From strategic partnership to strategic alliance’.

95 Bergsmann, ‘The concept of military alliance’, p. 28.

96 Korolev, ‘On the verge of an alliance’, p. 236.

97 Beatrice Heuser and Diego Ruiz Palmer, ‘Introduction’, in Beatrice Heuser, Tormod Heier, and Guillaume Lasconjarias (eds), Military Exercises: Political Messaging and Strategic Impact (Rome: NATO Defense College, 2018), pp. 1–9 (p. 1).

98 Morrow, ‘Alliances: Why write them down?’, p. 71.

99 Heuser and Ruiz Palmer, ‘Introduction’, p. 1.

100 Fedder, ‘The concept of alliance’; Leeds and Anac, ‘Alliance institutionalisation and alliance performance’; Benson and Clinton, ‘Assessing the variation of formal military alliances’.

101 Weitsman, ‘Wartime alliances’, p. 114.

102 BBC News, ‘Kyrgyz MPs vote to shut US base’ (19 Febuary 2009), available at: {http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7898690.stm}.

103 Nikolai Sokov, ‘The withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia: Not solving anything,’ PONARS Policy Memo 363 (1 June 2005), available at: {https://www.ponarseurasia.org/wp-content/uploads/attachments/pm_0363.pdf}, pp. 2–4.

104 Barnett and Levy, ‘Domestic sources of alliances and alignments’, p. 371.

105 Liska, Nations in Alliance; Walt, The Origins of Alliances; Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’; Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’.

106 Salmon, ‘The European Union’, p. 819.

107 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press, 1979).

108 Walt, The Origins of Alliances.

109 Chidley, ‘Towards a framework of alignment’, p. 142.

110 Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’, pp. 123–5.

111 Ibid.

112 Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998).

113 Kenneth N. Waltz, ‘Structural realism after the Cold War’, International Security, 25:1 (2000), pp. 5–41.

114 G. John Ikenberry (ed.), America Unrivalled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002).

115 Benson and Clinton, ‘Assessing the variation of formal military alliances’.

116 Morrow, ‘Alliances, credibility, and peacetime costs’; Smith, ‘Alliance formation and war’; Leeds, ‘Do alliances deter aggression?’; Jesse C. Johnson and Brett Ashley Leeds, ‘Defense pacts: A prescription for peace?’, Foreign Policy Analysis, 7:1 (2011), pp. 45–65; Brett V. Benson, Adam Meirowitz, and Kristopher W. Ramsay, ‘Inducing deterrence through moral hazard in alliance contracts’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58:2 (2014), pp. 307–35.

117 Office of Soviet Analysis, ‘A comparison of Soviet and US Gross National Products, 1960–1983’, Directorate of Intelligence (1 August 1984), available at: {https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000498181.pdf}.

118 Stephen M. Walt, ‘Alliance formation and the balance of world power’, International Security, 9:4 (1985), pp. 3–43.

119 Salmon, ‘The European Union’, p. 817.

120 Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’, p. 852.

121 Lai and Reiter, ‘Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances’, p. 211.

122 Ibid.

123 Walt, The Origins of Alliances; Bennett, ‘Testing alternative models of alliance duration’; Lai and Reiter, ‘Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances’.

124 Sebastian Rosato, ‘The inscrutable intentions of great powers’, International Security, 39:3 (2015), pp. 48–88; Stephen Van Evera, ‘Offense, defense, and the causes of war’, International Security, 22:4 (1998), pp. 5–43.

125 Puthan Purayil, ‘The rise of China’, pp. 54–65.

126 Rajesh Rajagopalan, ‘Evasive balancing: India’s unviable Indo-Pacific strategy’, International Affairs, 96:1 (2020), pp. 75–93 (p. 98).

127 Lalwani and Byrne, ‘Great expectations’, p. 53.

128 Ibid., p. 45.

129 Schweller, Deadly Imbalances.

130 Schweller, ‘Bandwagoning for profit’, p. 88.

131 Randall L. Schweller, ‘Tripolarity and the Second World War’, International Studies Quarterly, 37:1 (1993), pp. 73–103.

132 Martin Smith, Russia and NATO since 1991: From Cold War through Cold Peace to Partnership? (London: Routledge, 2006), p. 112.

133 James D. Morrow, ‘Alliances and asymmetry: An alternative to the capability aggregation model of alliances’, American Journal of Political Science, 35:4 (1991), pp. 904–33 (p. 931).

134 Salmon, ‘The European Union’, p. 820.

135 Wilkins, ‘Russo-Chinese strategic partnership’.

136 Liska, Nations in Alliance, p. 12.

137 Strüver, ‘International alignment between interests and ideology’, pp. 6–8.

138 Walt, ‘Alliance formation’, pp. 9–10.

139 Ibid., pp. 8–9.

140 Schweller, ‘Tripolarity and the Second World War’, pp. 76–7.

141 Snyder, ‘Alliances, balance, and stability’ p. 124.

142 Puthan Purayil, ‘The rise of China’; Ladwig and Mukherjee, ‘Sailing together’, p. 67.

143 Korolev, China–Russia Strategic Alignment.

144 Korolev, China–Russia Strategic Alignment, pp. 88–9.