Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T11:00:33.420Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Electoral incentives for cross-ethnic voting: evidence from a natural experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2019

Nenad Stojanović*
Affiliation:
Département de science politique et relations internationales, Université de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland
Oliver Strijbis
Affiliation:
Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Universität Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract

Prospects for democracy in multi-ethnic societies are generally more promising if elections are not mere ethnic censuses, in which people vote predominantly for co-ethnic parties and candidates. But what institutions facilitate or hinder ethnic voting? Unlike past studies, this article explores ethnic voting by conducting a natural experiment (rather than surveys or laboratory experiments). It examines the case of Fribourg, a bilingual (French/German) Swiss canton where elections at different levels of government, within the same electoral district, are held under both majoritarian and proportional systems. Coupled with the high territorial homogeneity of the linguistic groups, this unique setting allows us to conduct a robust empirical analysis of voter behaviour. We find that cross-ethnic voting is significantly more frequent in multi-member majoritarian elections than in list-PR elections or in two-member majoritarian elections. Our results yield qualified support to the centripetalist approach to electoral design in multi-ethnic societies, that favours majoritarian systems, rather than to the consociational school that advocates proportional representation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© European Consortium for Political Research 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, C.H. and Bartels, L.M. (2016), Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government, Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altermatt, B. (2018), Sprache und Politik– Zweisprachigkeit und Geschichte, Freiburg: Kultur Natur Deutschfreiburg.Google Scholar
Arzheimer, K., Evans, J. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (eds.) (2017), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, London, UK: SAGE.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birnir, J.K. (2007), Ethnicity and Electoral Politics, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bochsler, D., Mueller, S. and Bernauer, J. (2016), ‘An ever closer union? The nationalisation of political parties in Switzerland, 1991–2015’, Swiss Political Science Review 22(1): 2940.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowler, S. (2017), ‘Institutional effects on voter choice’, in Arzheimer, K., Evans, J. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. (eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, London, UK: SAGE, pp. 929.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caramani, D. (2004), The Nationalization of Politics, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chandra, K. (2005), ‘Ethnic parties and democratic stability’, Perspectives on Politics 3(2): 235252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, F.S. (1997), ‘Proportional versus majoritarian ethnic conflict management in democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 30(5): 607630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, G.W. (1997), Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, L. (1999), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Doorenspleet, R. (2005), ‘Electoral systems and good governance in divided societies’, Ethnopolitics 4(4): 365380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, T. and Harrison, L. (2010), ‘Cross-cutting cleavages and ethnic voting: an experimental study of cousinage in Mali’, American Political Science Review 104(1): 119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eugster, B. and Strijbis, O. (2011), ‘The Swiss: a political nation?Swiss Political Science Review 17(4): 394416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferree, K. (2006), ‘Explaining South Africa’s racial census’, The Journal of Politics 68(4): 803815.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, S.D., Heath, A.F., Sanders, D. and Sobolewska, M. (2015), ‘Candidate ethnicity and vote choice in Britain’, British Journal of Political Science 45(4): 883905.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraenkel, J. and Grofman, B. (2006), ‘Does the alternative vote foster moderation in ethnically divided societies? The case of Fiji’, Comparative Political Studies 39(5): 623651.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallagher, M. (1991), ‘Proportionality, disproportionality and electoral systems’, Electoral Studies 10: 3351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, E.R., Morton, R.B. and Rietz, T.A. (2008), ‘Minority representation in co-ethnics districts’, American Political Science Review 92(1): 127144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hix, S., Hortala-Vallve, R. and Rimbau-Armet, G. (2017), ‘The effects of district magnitude on voting behavior’, Journal of Politics 79(1): 356361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, O., Verniers, G. and Kumar, S. (2015), ‘Do muslim voters prefer muslim candidates? Co-religiosity and voting behaviour in India’, Electoral Studies 38: 1018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoffman, B.D. and Long, J.D. (2013), ‘Parties, ethnicity, and voting in African elections’, Comparative Politics 45(2): 127146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, D. (1985), Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, D. (1991), A Democractic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Houle, C. (2018), ‘Does ethnic voting harm democracy?Democratization 25(5): 824842.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. (2012), ‘Measuring ethnic voting: do proportional electoral laws politicize ethnicity?American Journal of Political Science 56(4): 9861001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ishiyama, J. (2012), Explaining ethnic bloc voting in Africa’, Democratization 19(4): 761788.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jesse, N.G. (1999), ‘Candidate success in multi-member districts: an investigation of Duverger and Cox’, Electoral Studies 18: 323340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juenke, E.G. and Shah, P. (2016), ‘Demand and supply: racial and ethnic candidates in white districts’, Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics 1(1): 6090.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kartal, M. (2015), ‘Laboratory elections with endogenous turnout: proportional representation versus majoritarian rule’, Experimental Economics 18(3): 366384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G. (1997), A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data, Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kriesi, H., Wernli, B., Sciarini, P. and Gianni, M. (1996), Le clivage linguistique: Problèmes de compréhension entre les communautés linguistiques en Suisse, Berne: Federal Statistical Office.Google Scholar
Lachat, R. and Kriesi, H. (2015), ‘“Voluntary PR voting” in the election of Swiss regional governments’, Swiss Political Science Review 21(3): 419436 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lau, R.R. and Redlawsk, D.P. (2006), How Voters Decide: Information Processing in Election Campaigns, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1977), Democracy in Plural Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (2004), ‘Constitutional design for divided societies’, Journal of Democracy 15(2): 96109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipset, S.M. (1959), ‘Some social requisites of democracy: economic development and political legitimacy’, American Political Science Review 53(1): 69105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipset, S.M. (1960), Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics, New York, NY: Doubleday & Company.Google Scholar
Lublin, D. (2014), Minority Rules. Electoral Systems, Decentralization, and Ethnoregional Parties Success, New York, NY: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lutz, G. (2013), ‘How multi-member majoritarian elections produce proportional outcomes?Paper Presented at the MPSA Annual Meeting, April, Chicago.Google Scholar
McConnaughy, C.M., White, I.K., Leal, D.L. and Casellas, J.P. (2010), ‘A Latino on the ballot: explaining coethnic voting among Latinos and the response of white Americans’, The Journal of Politics 72(4): 11991211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGarry, J. and O’Leary, B. (2009), ‘Power shared after the death of thousands’, in Taylor, R. (ed.), Consociational Theory: McGarry and O’Leary and the Northern Ireland Conflict, London and New York: Routledge, pp. 1584.Google Scholar
Meune, M. (2011), Au delà du Röstigraben: Langues, minorités et identités dans les cantons suisses bilingues, Geneva: Georg.Google Scholar
Mitchell, P. (2014), ‘The single transferable vote and ethnic conflict: the evidence from Northern Ireland. Electoral Studies 33: 246257.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moehler, D. and Conroy-Krutz, J. (2016), ‘Eyes on the ballot: priming effects and ethnic voting in the developing world’, Electoral Studies 42: 99113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, R.G., Hill, J.S. and Grofman, B. (1985), ‘The impact of multimember districts on party representation in U.S. State legislatures’, Legislative Studies Quarterly 10(4): 441455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, P. (2004), Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Leary, B. (2005), ‘Debating consociational politics: normative and explanatory arguments’, in Noel, S. (ed.), From Power Sharing to Democracy, Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press, pp. 343.Google Scholar
Parenti, M. (1967), ‘Ethnic politics and the persistence of ethnic identification’, American Political Science Review 61(3): 717726.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Portmann, L. and Stojanović, N. (2019), ‘Electoral discrimination against immigrant-origin candidates’, Political Behavior 41(1): 105134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabushka, A. and Shepsle, K.A. (1971), ‘Political entrepreneurship and patterns of democratic instability in plural societies’, Race and Class 12(4): 461476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, B. (2001), Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, B. (2012), ‘Institutional designs for divided societies: consociationalism, centripetalism and communalism compared’, European Political Science 11: 259270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosen, O., Jiang, W., King, G. and Tanner, M.A. (2001), ‘Bayesian and frequentist inference for ecological inference: the RxC case’, Statistica Neerlandica 55(2): 134156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenblum, N. (2008), On the Side of the Angels. An Appreciation of Parties and Partisanship, Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ruiz-Rufino, R. (2013), ‘Satisfaction with democracy in multi-ethnic countries: the effect of representative political institutions on ethnic minorities’, Political Studies 61(1): 101118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sciarini, P. and Goldberg, A.C. (2016), ‘Turnout bias in postelection surveys: political involvement, survey participation, and vote overreporting’, Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology 4(1): 110137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shah, P. (2014), ‘It takes a black candidate: a supply-side theory of minority representation’, Political Research Quarterly 67(2): 266279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siroky, D., Mueller, S. and Hechter, M. (2017), ‘Cultural legacies and political preferences: the failure of separatism in the Swiss Jura’, European Political Science Review 9(2): 303327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sisk, T.D. (1995), Democratization in South Africa: The Elusive Social Contract, Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stokes-Brown, A.K. (2006), ‘Racial identity and Latino vote choice’, American Politics Research 34(5): 627652.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stojanović, N. (2008), ‘How to solve the dilemma of power sharing? Formal and informal patterns of representation in the Swiss multilingual cantons’, Representation 44(3): 239253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strijbis, O. and Kotnarowski, M. (2015), ‘Measuring the electoral mobilization of ethnic parties: towards comparable indicators’, Party Politics 21(3): 456469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van der Straeten, K., Lachat, R. and Laslier, J.-F. (2018), ‘Strategic voting in multiwinner elections with approval balloting: an application to the 2011 regional government election in Zurich’, in Stephenson, L.B., Aldrich, J.H. and Blais, A. (eds.), The Many Faces of Strategic Voting: Tactical Behavior in Electoral Systems around the World, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 178202.Google Scholar
Wimmer, A. (2008), ‘Elementary strategies of ethnic boundary making’, Ethnic and Racial Studies 31(6): 10251055.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, R.E. (1965), ‘The development and persistence of ethnic voting’, American Political Science Review 59(4): 896908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Stojanović and Strijbis supplementary material

Appendix

Download Stojanović and Strijbis supplementary material(File)
File 1.7 MB