Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T17:20:34.522Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Party, leader or candidate? dissecting the right-wing populist vote in Finland

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 January 2014

Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen  and
Peter Söderlund
Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen*
Affiliation:
School of Management, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
Peter Söderlund
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Åbo Akademi University, Vasa, Finland
*
*E-mail: elina.kestila-kekkonen@uta.fi
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

What populist right parties offer (the supply side) should be examined in relation to the preferences of the populist right electorate (the demand side). This article examines how the supply and demand in the electoral market are met by assessing the relative importance of party, party leader, and district-level candidate for the right-wing populist vote. The study is set in an electoral system, which uses preferential voting for candidates in multi-member districts, namely Finland, where all three objects of vote choice may matter. We analyse post-election survey data for the 2011 parliamentary election in which the right-wing populist True Finns party gained almost one fifth of the national vote. The results show that being guided by the characteristics of the party leader is a much stronger predictor the of the True Finns vote than being affected by party or district-level candidate characteristics.

Keywords

right-wing populismvoting behaviorparty leader effectscandidate-centredness
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 6 , Issue 4 , November 2014 , pp. 641 - 662
Copyright
© European Consortium for Political Research 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aardal, B. and Binder, T. (2011), ‘Leader effects and party’, in K. Aarts, A. Blais and H. Schmitt (eds), Political Leaders and Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp 108–126.Google Scholar
Aarts, K., Blais, A. and Schmitt, H. (2011), Political Leaders and Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Abedi, A. (2002), ‘Challenges to established parties: the effects of party system features on the electoral fortunes of anti-political-establishment parties’, European Journal of Political Research 41(4): 551–583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arter, D. ( forthcoming), ‘When new party X has the ‘X factor’: on resilient entrepreneurial parties’, Party Politics.Google Scholar
Arter, D. (2013), ‘The “hows”, not the “whys” or the “wherefores”: the role of intra-party competition in the 2011 breakthrough of the True Finns’, Scandinavian Political Studies 36(2): 99–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arter, D. (2010), ‘The breakthrough of another West European populist radical right party? The case of True Finns’, Government and Opposition 45(4): 484–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arter, D. (2003), ‘From ‘rainbow coalition’ back down to ‘red earth’? The 2003 Finnish general elections’, West European Politics 26(3): 153–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barisione, M. (2009), ‘So, what difference do leaders make? Candidates’ images and the “conditionality” of leader effects on voting’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19(4): 473–500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bellucci, P., Garzia, D. and Lewis-Beck, M.S. ( forthcoming), ‘Issues and leaders as vote determinants: the case of Italy’, Party Politics.Google Scholar
Betz, H.-G. (1994), Radical Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe , New York: St. Martin’s Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bittner, A. (2011), Platform or Personality? The Role of Party Leaders in Elections, New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borg, S. and Grönlund, K. Finnish National Election Study 2011 [computer file]. FSD2653, version 2.0 (23 April 2012). Helsinki: Taloustutkimus [data collection], 2011. Election Study Consortium [producer], 2011. Tampere: Finnish Social Science Data Archive [distributor], 2012.Google Scholar
Bos, L., van der Brug, W. and de Vreese, C. (2011), ‘How the media shape perceptions of right-wing populist leaders’, Political Communication 28(2): 182–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caillaud, B. and Tirole, J. (1999), ‘Party governance and ideological bias’, European Economic Review 43(4): 779–789.Google Scholar
Canovan, M. (1999), ‘Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy’, Political Studies 47(1): 2–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canovan, M. (2004), ‘Populism for political theorists?’, Journal of Political Ideologies 9(3): 241–252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cole, A. (2005), ‘Old right or new right? The ideological positioning of parties of the far right’, European Journal of Political Research 44(2): 203–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conger, J.A., Kanungo, R.N., Menon, S.T. and Mathur, P. (1997), ‘Measuring charisma: dimensionality and validity of the Conger-Kanungo scale of charismatic leadership’, Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 14(3): 290–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Lange, S.L. and Mudde, C. (2005), ‘Political extremism in Europe’, European Political Science 4(4): 476–488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, W.M. (2001), ‘Pariahs in their midst: Belgian and Norwegian parties react to extremist threats’, West European Politics 24(3): 23–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eatwell, R. (2003), ‘Ten theories of the extreme right’, in P. Merkl and L. Weinberg (eds), Right-Wing Extremism in the Twenty-First Century, London: Frank Cass, pp. 45–70.Google Scholar
Eatwell, R. (2000), ‘The rebirth of the extreme right in Western Europe’, Parliamentary Affairs 53(3): 407–425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fennema, M. (2004), ‘Populist parties of the right’, in J. Rydgren (ed.), Movements of Exclusion: Radical Right-Wing Populism in the Western World, New York: Nova Science Publishers, pp. 1–25.Google Scholar
Garzia, D. (2011), ‘The personalization of politics in Western democracies: causes and consequences on leader-follower relationships’, The Leadership Quarterly 22(4): 697–709.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golder, M. (2003), ‘Explaining variation in the success of extreme right parties in Western Europe’, Comparative Political Studies 36(4): 432–466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodwin, M.J. (2006), ‘The rise and faults of the internalist perspective in extreme right studies’, Representation 42(4): 347–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gunther, R. and Diamond, L. (2003), ‘Species of political parties: a new typology’, Party Politics 9(2): 167–199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helms, L. (1997), ‘Right-wing populist parties in Austria and Switzerland: a comparative analysis of electoral support and conditions of success’, West European Politics 20(2): 37–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Husbands, C.T. (2002), ‘How to tame the dragon, or what goes around, comes around: a critical review of some major contemporary attempts to account for extreme-right racist politics in Western Europe’, in M. Schain, A. Zolberg and P. Hossay (eds), Shadows Over Europe: The Development and Impact of the Extreme Right in Western Europe, Palgrave: Macmillan, pp. 39–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenssen, A.T. and Aalberg, T. (2006), ‘Party-leader effects in Norway: a multi-methods approach’, Electoral Studies 25(2): 248–269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kam, C.D. and Zechmeister, E.J. (2013), ‘Name recognition and candidate support’, American Journal of Political Science 57(4): 971–986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karvonen, L. (2010), Personalisation of Politics: A Study of Parliamentary Democracies, Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
Kestilä, E. (2006), ‘Is there demand for radical right populism in the Finnish electorate’, Scandinavian Political Studies 29(3): 169–191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kestilä, E. and Söderlund, P. (2007), ‘Subnational political opportunity structures and the success of the radical right: evidence from the March 2004 regional elections in France’, European Journal of Political Research 46(6): 773–796.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, A. (2002), ‘Do leaders’ personalities really matter?’, in A. King (ed.), Leaders’ Personalities and the Outcomes of Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, H. (2004), Diversification and Reconfiguration of Party Systems in Postindustrial Democracies, Bonn: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, H. (1995), The Radical Right in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis, Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press.Google Scholar
Knigge, P. (1998), ‘The ecological correlates of right-wing extremism in Western Europe’, European Journal of Political Research 34(2): 249–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriesi, H., Grande, E., Lachat, R., Dolezal, M., Bornschier, S. and Frey, T. (2008), West European Politics in the Age of Globalization, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lau, R.R. and Redlawsk, D.P. (2006), How Voters Decide: Information Processing During Election Campaigns, New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lobo, M.C. (2008), ‘Parties and leader effects: impact of leaders in the vote for different types of parties’, Party Politics 14(3): 281–298.Google Scholar
Lubbers, M., Gijsberts, M. and Scheepers, P. (2002), ‘Extreme right-wing voting in Western Europe’, European Journal of Political Research 41(3): 345–378.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mair, P. (1997), Party System Change, Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Marsh, M. (2007), ‘Candidates or parties? Objects of electoral choice in Ireland’, Party Politics 13(2): 500–527.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, W.L. and Niemi, R.G. (2002), ‘Voting: choice, conditioning and constraint’, in L. LeDuc, R.G. Niemi and P. Norris (eds), Comparing Democracies 2: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective, London: Sage Publications, pp. 169–188.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (2004), ‘The populist zeitgeist’, Government and Opposition 39(4): 542–563.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, C. (2000), Ideology of the Extreme Right, Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (1999), ‘The single-issue party thesis: extreme right parties and the immigration issue’, West European Politics 22(3): 182–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niiranen, J. (2013), Vihreiden ja perussuomalaisten jäsenmäärät vahvassa nousussa. Helsingin Sanomat 31 March. Retrieved 18 May 2013 from http://www.hs.fi/politiikka/a1364692661448.Google Scholar
Norris, P. (2005), Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ohr, D. and Oscarsson, H. (2011), ‘Leader traits, leader image, and vote choice’, in K. Aarts, K.A. Blais and H. Schmitt (eds), Political Leaders and Democratic Elections, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 187–219.Google Scholar
Paloheimo, H. (2011), ‘Populismi puoluejärjestelmän vedenjakajana’, in S. Borg (ed.), Muutosvaalit, Helsinki: Ministry of Justice, pp. 324–346.Google Scholar
Paloheimo, H. (2003), ‘The rising power of the Prime Minister in Finland’, Scandinavian Political Studies 26(3): 219–243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Pas, D., Vries, C. and van der Brug, W. (2013), ‘A leader without a party: exploring the relationship between Geert Wilders’ leadership performance in the media and his electoral success’, Party Politics 19(3): 458–476.Google Scholar
Pedahzur, A. and Brichta, A. (2002), ‘The institutionalization of extreme right-wing charismatic parties: aparadox?’, Party Politics 8(1): 31–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raunio, T. (2012), Whenever the EU is involved, you get problems? Explaining the European policy of the (True) Finns. Sussex European Institute: SEI Working Paper 127.Google Scholar
Rydgren, J. (2007), ‘The sociology of the radical right’, Annual Review of Sociology 33(1): 241–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schain, M. (2006), ‘The extreme-right and immigration policy making: measuring direct and indirect effects’, West European Politics 29(2): 270–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schedler, A. (1996), ‘Anti-political establishment parties’, Party Politics 2(3): 291–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumacher, G. and Rooduijn, M. (2013), ‘Sympathy for the ‘devil’? Voting for populists in the 2006 and 2010 Dutch general elections’, Electoral Studies 32(1): 124–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seyd, P. (1999), ‘New parties/new politics? A case study of the British Labour Party’, Party Politics 5(3): 383–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shugart, M.S., Valdini, M.E. and Suominen, K. (2005), ‘Looking for locals: voter information demands and personal vote-earning attributes of legislators under proportional representation’, American Journal of Political Science 49(2): 437–449.Google Scholar
Taggart, P. (1995), ‘New populist parties in Western Europe’, West European Politics 18(1): 34–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taggart, P. (2004), ‘Populism and representative politics in contemporary Europe’, Journal of Political Ideologies 9(3): 269–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thijssen, P. and de Lange, S. (2005), ‘Explaining the varying electoral appeal of the Vlaams Blok in the districts of Antwerp’, Ethical Perspectives 12(2): 231–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, W. and Fennema, M. (2003), ‘Protest or mainstream? How the European anti-immigrant parties developed into two separate groups by 1999’, European Journal of Political Research 42(1): 55–76.Google Scholar
van der Brug, W., Fennema, M. and Tillie, J. (2005), ‘Why some anti-immigrant parties fail and others succeed? A two-step model of aggregate electoral support’, Comparative Political Studies 38(5): 537–573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, W. and Mughan, A. (2007), ‘Charisma, leader effects and support for right-wing populist parties’, Party Politics 13(1): 29–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, W. and van Spanje, J. (2009), ‘Immigration, Europe and the ‘new’ cultural cleavage’, European Journal of Political Research 48(3): 309–334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, A. and Wessels, B. (2012), ‘Parties and their leaders: Does it matter how they match? The German general elections 2009 in comparison’, Electoral Studies 31(1): 72–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wessels, B. and Giebler, H. (2013), Local campaigning: Bowling for the party, or bowling alone? Paper presented at the 2013 MPSA Annual Conference, Chicago.Google Scholar
Wilcox, A., Weinberg, L. and Eubank, W. (2003), ‘Explaining national variations in support for var right political parties in Western Europe, 1990–2000’, in P. Merkl and L. Weinberg (eds), Right-Wing Extremism in the Twenty-First Century, London: Frank Cass, pp. 126–158.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Kestilä-Kekkonen Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Kestilä-Kekkonen Supplementary Material(File)
File 17.1 KB