Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T15:53:58.921Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Zero-sum of all fears: intergroup threat, contact, and voting behavior in Northern Ireland

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 August 2015

Donald M. Beaudette  and
Andrew B. Kirkpatrick
Donald M. Beaudette*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Oxford College of Emory University, Oxford, GA, USA
Andrew B. Kirkpatrick*
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Christopher Newport University, Newport News, VA, USA
*
*E-mail: andrew.kirkpatrick@cnu.edu; donald.beaudette@emory.edu
*E-mail: andrew.kirkpatrick@cnu.edu; donald.beaudette@emory.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

How do varying levels of inter-group contact affect voter preferences in connection with ethnically radical political candidates and parties? Two competing hypotheses have emerged in the last 60 years: the first, known as the group threat hypothesis, argues that voters from an ethnic or religious group in more ethnically or racially heterogeneous districts will exhibit stronger preferences for ethnically radical political candidates. The contact hypothesis argues that groups living in mixed localities are actually less likely to support ethnic radicals. Both perspectives have found empirical support, but no previous study has offered a theoretical explanation for two seemingly contradictory conclusions. We specify just such a theory, arguing that the effect of district level integration is conditioned by the direction of a group’s share of the national population. We test this theory quantitatively using electoral data from Northern Ireland between 1983 and 2010.

Keywords

ethnically radical political partiesgroup threatcontact hypothesisintegrationNorthern Ireland
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , February 2017 , pp. 51 - 71
Copyright
© European Consortium for Political Research 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allport, G. (1954), The Nature of Prejudice, Cambridge: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Bar-Tal, D. (2011), Intergroup Conflicts and their Resolution: A Social Psychological Perspective, New York: Taylor and Francis Group.Google Scholar
Beck, N. and Katz, J.N. (1995), ‘What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data.’, American Political Science Review 89(3): 634–647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bew, P. (2001), ‘Myths of consociationalism: from good Friday to political impasse’, In M. Cox, et al. eds, A Farewell to Arms? Beyond the Good Friday Agreement, Manchester: Manchester University Press, pp. 57–68.Google Scholar
Blalock, H.M. (1967), Toward a Theory of Minority Group Relations, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Bobo, L. (2004), ‘Group conflict, prejudice, and the paradox of contemporary racial attitudes’, In J.T. Jost and J. Sidanius eds, Political Psychology: Key Readings, New York: Psychology Press, pp. 333–357.Google Scholar
Bochner, S. ed. (1982), Cultures in Conflict: Studies in Cross-Cultural Interaction, New York: Pergamon Press.Google Scholar
‘Bread and butter issues to Fore as SF, DUP vie for top spot’. Irish Times 11 April 2011, p. 5.Google Scholar
Bowcott, O. (1992), ‘Loyalist Gunmen Extract Their Indiscriminate Revenge’, The Guardian 6: 22.Google Scholar
Campbell, D.E. (2006), ‘Religious ‘threat’ in contemporary presidential elections’, Journal of Politics 68(1): 104–115.Google Scholar
Chandra, K. (2004), Why Ethnic Parties Succeed, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Chandra, K. (2005), ‘Ethnic parties and democratic stability’, Perspectives on Politics 3(2): 235–252.Google Scholar
Clarke, L. (2011), ‘ Who’ll Get Top Job Key Issue for Voters: DUP’. Belfast Telegraph, 4 April 2011, p. 2.Google Scholar
Coffe, H., Heyndels, B. and Vermeir, J. (2007), ‘Fertile grounds for extreme right-wing parties: explaining the Vlaams blok’s electoral success’, Electoral Studies 26(1): 142–155.Google Scholar
Dancygier, R.M. (2010), Immigration and Conflict in Europe, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Darby, J. (1986), Intimidation and the Control of Conflict in Northern Ireland, Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.Google Scholar
De Vos, S. and Deurloo, R. (1999), ‘Right extremist votes and the presence of foreigners: an analysis of the 1994 elections in Amsterdam’, Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie 90(2): 129–141.Google Scholar
Evans, G. and Duffy, M. (1997), ‘Beyond the sectarian divide: the social bases and political consequences of nationalist and unionist party competition in Northern Ireland’, British Journal of Political Science 27(1): 47–81.Google Scholar
Evans, J. and Tonge, J. (2009), ‘Social class and party choice in northern Ireland’s ethnic blocs’, West European Politics 32(5): 1012–1030.Google Scholar
Gay, C. (2006), ‘Seeing difference: the effect of economic disparity on black attitudes toward Latinos’, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 982–997.Google Scholar
Giles, M.W. and Buckner, M.A. (1993), ‘David duke and black threat: an old hypothesis revisited’, Journal of Politics 55(3): 702–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golder, M. (2003), ‘Explaining variation in the success of extreme right parties in Western Europe’, Comparative Political Studies 36(4): 432–466.Google Scholar
Gormley-Heenan, C. and MacGinty, R. (2008), ‘Ethnic outbidding and party modernization: understanding the democratic unionist party’s electoral success in the post-agreement environment’, Ethnopolitics 7(1): 43–61.Google Scholar
Hayes, B.C., McAllister, I. and Dowds, L. (2007), ‘Integrated education, intergroup relations, and political identities in Northern Ireland’, Social Problems 54(4): 454–482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
----Hayes, B.C., McAllister, I. and Dowds, L.. (2013), ‘Integrated schooling and religious tolerance in Northern Ireland’, Journal of Contemporary Religion 28(1): 67–78.Google Scholar
Hayes, B.C. and McAllister, I. (2004), ‘The Political Impact of Secularisation in Northern Ireland’. Working Papers in British-Irish Studies, No. 36.Google Scholar
Hayes, B.C. and McAllister, I. (2009), ‘Education as a mechanism for conflict resolution in Northern Ireland’, Oxford Review of Education 35(4): 437–450.Google Scholar
Hanley, B. and Millar, S. (2009), The Lost Revolution: The Story of the Official IRA and the Workers’ Party, Dublin: Penguin Ireland.Google Scholar
Hopkins, D.J. (2010), ‘Politicized places: explaining where and when immigrants provoke local opposition’, American Political Science Review 104(1): 40–60.Google Scholar
Hopkins, D.J. (2011), ‘National debates, local responses: the origins of local concern about immigration in Britain and the United States’, British Journal of Political Science 41(3): 499–524.Google Scholar
Horowitz, D. (1985), Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Hughes, J. and Knox, C. (1997), ‘For better or worse? Community relations initiatives in Northern Ireland’, Peace and Change 22(3): 330–355.Google Scholar
Husbands, C.T. (1991), ‘The support for the Front National: analyses and findings’, Ethnic and Racial Studies 14(3): 382–413.Google Scholar
Key, V.O. (1949), Southern Politics in State and Nation, Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press.Google Scholar
Knox, C. and Hughes., J. (1996), ‘Crossing the Divide: Community Relations in Northern Ireland’, Journal of Peace Research 33(1): 83–98.Google Scholar
Kopstein, J.S. and Wittenberg, J. (2009), ‘Does familiarity breed contempt? Inter-ethnic contact and support for illiberal parties’, Journal of Politics 71(2): 414–428.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (1971), ‘Comparative politics and the comparative method’, American Political Science Review 65(3): 682–693.Google Scholar
Lloyd, K. and Robinson, G. (2011), ‘Intimate mixing – bridging the gap? Catholic-protestant relationships in Northern Ireland’, Ethnic and Racial Studies 34(12): 2134–2152.Google Scholar
Lubbers, M. and Scheepers, P. (2000), ‘Individual and contextual characteristics of the German extreme right-wing vote in 1990s. A test of complementary theories’, European Journal of Political Research 38(1): 63–94.Google Scholar
Lublin, D. and Voss, D.S. (2002), ‘Context and francophone support for the sovereignty of Quebec: an ecological analysis’, Canadian Journal of Political Science 3(1): 75–101.Google Scholar
Lusktick, I. (1979), ‘Stability in Deeply Divided Societies: Consociationalism Versus Control’, World Politics 31(3): 325–344.Google Scholar
MacGinty, R. and Du Toit, P. (2007), ‘A disparity of esteem: relative group status in Northern Ireland after the Belfast agreement’, Political Psychology 28(1): 13–31.Google Scholar
McAllister, I. and Rose, R. (1988), United Kingdom Ecological Data, 1983, 1987 [computer file], SN: 2081 Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive.Google Scholar
McGarry, J. and O’Leary, B. (1995), Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images, Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Mitchell, P., Evans, G. and O’Leary, B. (2009), ‘Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune parties in Northern Ireland’, Political Studies 57(2): 397–421.Google Scholar
O’Leary, B. and McGarry, J. (1993), The Politics of Antagonism: Understanding Northern Ireland, London: Athlone Press.Google Scholar
Oliver, J.E. and Wong, J. (2003), ‘Intergroup prejudice in multiethnic settings’, American Journal of Political Science 47(4): 567–582.Google Scholar
Offe, C. (1993), Ethnic Politics in European Transitions, Bremen: Center for European Law and Policy.Google Scholar
Paolini, S., Hewstone, M., Cairns, E. and Voci, A. (2004), ‘Effects of direct and indirect cross-group friendships on judgments of Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland: the mediating role of an anxiety-reduction mechanism’, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 30(6): 770–786.Google Scholar
Parks, R.W. (1967), ‘Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated’, Journal of the American Statistical Association 62(318): 500–509.Google Scholar
Pettigrew, T.F. (1998), ‘Intergroup contact theory’, Annual Review of Psychology 49(1): 65–85.Google Scholar
Putnam, R.D. (2007), ‘E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty-First Century’, Scandinavian Political Studies 30(2): 137–174.Google Scholar
Rabushka, A. and Shepsle, K. (1972), Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic Instability, Columbus, OH: Charles E. Merrill Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Rooduijn, M., de Lange, S.L. and van der Brug, W. (2014), ‘A populist zeitgeist? Programmatic contagion by populist parties in Western Europe’, Party Politics 20(4): 563–575.Google Scholar
Rubin, M. and Hewstone, M. (1998), ‘Social Identity Theory’s Self-Esteem Hypothesis: A review and some suggestions for clarification’, Personality and Social Psychology Review 2(1): 40–62.Google Scholar
Shuttleworth, I. and Lloyd, C. (2009), ‘Are Northern Ireland’s communities dividing? Evidence from geographically consistent population data 1971–2001’, Environment and Planning 41(1): 213–229.Google Scholar
Sidanius, J. (1993), ‘The psychology of group conflict and the dynamics of oppression: a social dominance perspective’, in S. Iyengar and W.J. McGuire eds, Explorations in Political Psychology, Durham: Duke University Press, pp. 183–224.Google Scholar
Sinn Féin (2010), 2010 Westminster Election Manifesto. Retrieved December 12, 2014 from http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2010/Westminster2010_ManifestoFinal.pdf.Google Scholar
Stein, R.M., Post, S.S. and Rinden, A.L. (2000), ‘Reconciling context and contact effects on racial attitudes’, Political Research Quarterly 53(2): 285–303.Google Scholar
Sturgis, P., Brunton-Smith, I., Read, S. and Allum, Nick (2011), ‘Does ethnic diversity Erode Trust? Putnam's `Hunkering Down' Thesis Reconsidered’, British Journal of Political Science 41(1): 57–82.Google Scholar
Thornton, C. ‘Protestants 53% Catholics 44%; Census shows narrowest gap ever between religions’. Belfast Telegraph, 19 December 2002: 1.Google Scholar
Tilley, J. and Evans, G. (2011), ‘Political generations in Northern Ireland’, European Journal of Political Research 50(5): 583–608.Google Scholar
Tropp, L.R. and Pettigrew, T.F. (2005), ‘Relationships between intergroup contact and prejudice among minority and majority status groups’, Psychological Science 16(12): 951–957.Google Scholar
Varshney, A. (2001), ‘Ethnic conflict and civil society: India and beyond’, World Politics 53(3): 362–398.Google Scholar
Varshney, A. (2002), Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India, New York: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Voss, D.S. (1996), ‘Beyond racial threat: failure of an old hypothesis in the New South’, Journal of Politics 58(4): 1156–1170.Google Scholar
Voss, D.S. (2001), ‘Huddled masses or immigrant menace? The black belt hypothesis did not emigrate’, American Review of Politics 22(2): 531–548.Google Scholar
Wittenberg, J., Alimadhi, F., Bhaskar, B.N. and Lau, O. (2007), ‘ei.RxC: Hierarchical Multinomial-Dirichlet Ecological Inference Model’, in Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Olivia Lau, Zelig: Everyone’s Statistical Software. Retrieved July 25, 2014 from http://gking.harvard.edu/zelig.Google Scholar