Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T07:04:44.583Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Presidential Instability in Latin America: Why Institutionalized Parties Matter

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 July 2020

Christopher A. Martínez Open the ORCID record for Christopher A. Martínez [Opens in a new window]
Christopher A. Martínez*
Affiliation:
Departamento de Sociología y Ciencia Política, Universidad Católica de Temuco, Temuco, Chile
*
*Corresponding author. Email: christopher.martinez@uct.cl
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Pedro P. Kuczynski (Peru 2018) and Evo Morales (Bolivia 2019) are the most recent cases in a long list of Latin American presidents who have been forced out of office. We seek to contribute to understanding why some presidents fail to fulfil their terms by analysing the role of an actor overlooked by the extant literature on presidential failures: political parties. We hypothesize a non-linear relation between party institutionalization and the risk of presidential failure. That is, when parties are weakly or highly institutionalized, the hazard of presidential failure is lower than when parties are moderately institutionalized. We test this and other hypotheses with a survival analysis of 157 Latin American administrations (1979–2018). We also qualitatively explore how the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of certain events affects the risk of failure in three countries with different levels of party institutionalization. We find that party institutionalization – as well as legislative support, anti-government demonstrations, presidential scandals and economic growth – significantly affects the risk of presidential failure.

Keywords

failed presidentparty institutionalizationLatin Americagovernment crisissurvival analysis
Type
Article
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 56 , Issue 4 , October 2021 , pp. 683 - 704
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Government and Opposition Limited

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acock, AC (2013) Discovering Structural Equation Modeling Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
Alcántara, M and Freidenberg, F (2001) Cuestión Regional y Política en Ecuador: Partidos de Vocación Nacional y Apoyo Regional. América Latina Hoy 27, 123–152.Google Scholar
Alesina, A and Spear, SE (1988) An Overlapping Generations Model of Electoral Competition. Journal of Public Economics 37, 359–379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Álvarez, ME and Marsteintredet, L (2010) Presidential and Democratic Breakdowns in Latin America: Similar Causes, Different Outcomes. In Llanos, M and Marsteintredet, L (eds), Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America: Causes and Outcomes of Executive Instability in Developing Democracies. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 33–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Axelrod, R (1984) The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Azpuru, D and Blanco, L (2007) Guatemala 2006: El Aniversario de la Democracia y la Paz. Revista de Ciencia Política 27, 149–163.Google Scholar
Basabe-Serrano, S, Pachano, S and Mejía-Acosta, A (2010) La Democracia Inconclusa: Derechos Fundamentales, Instituciones Políticas y Rendimientos Gubernamentales en Ecuador (1979–2008). Revista de Ciencia Política 30, 65–85.Google Scholar
Basabe-Serrano, S and Polga-Hecimovich, J (2012) Legislative Coalitions and Judicial Turnover under Political Uncertainty: The Case of Ecuador. Political Research Quarterly 66, 154–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumgartner, JC and Kada, N (2003) Checking Executive Power: Presidential Impeachment in Comparative Perspective. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Boix, C and Svolik, MW (2013) The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions, Commitment, and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships. Journal of Politics 75, 300–316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brannum, K (2019) Guatemala 2018: Facing a Constitutional Crossroad. Revista de Ciencia Política 39(2), 265–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brolo, J (2012) Organización Partidaria en Guatemala. In Sanabria Arias, JC (ed.), Partidos Políticos Guatemaltecos: Dinámicas Internas y Desempeño. Guatemala: Asociación de Investigación y Estudios Sociales, pp. 31–42.Google Scholar
Brownlee, J (2007) Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casal, Bértoa, F (2017) Political Parties or Party Systems? Assessing the ‘Myth’ of Institutionalisation and Democracy. West European Politics 40, 402–429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Centro de Estudios Públicos (2019) Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública N° 84. December, www.cepchile.cl/cep/encuestas-cep/encuestas-2009-2018/estudio-nacional-de-opinion-publica-n-84-diciembre-2019.Google Scholar
Christensen Bjune, M and Petersen, S (2010) Guarding Privileges and Saving the Day: Guatemalan Elites and the Settlement of the Serranazo. In Llanos, M and Marsteintredet, L (eds), Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America: Causes and Outcomes of Executive Instability in Developing Democracies. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 165–180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cleves, M, Gould, W, Gutierrez, R et al. (2010) An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M (1998) The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems. Party Politics 4, 547–568.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, M, Gerring, J, Knutsen, CH et al. (2018) V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v8. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.Google Scholar
Corrales, J (2002) The Politics of Argentina's Meltdown. World Policy Journal 19, 29–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corrales, J (2009) Volatilidad Económica: Debilidad de Partidos y Neocaudillismo en América Latina. Journal of Democracy en Español 1, 56–76.Google Scholar
Cox, GW and Morgenstern, S (2002) Epilogue: Latin America's Reactive Assemblies and Proactive Presidents. In Morgenstern, S and Nacif, B (eds), Legislative Politics in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 446–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cruz, C, Keefer, P and Scartascini, C (2018) Database of Political Institutions 2017 (DPI2017). Inter-American Development Bank. Numbers for Development.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dabroy, J (2018) Institucionalización de los Partidos Políticos: Una Aproximación al Caso Guatemalteco. Guatemala: Asociación de Investigación y Estudios Sociales.Google Scholar
Deutsche, Welle (2019) Protestas dejan ya 23 muertos en Chile mientras continúan saqueos e incendios, 23 November. www.dw.com/es/protestas-dejan-ya-23-muertos-en-chile-mientras-contin%C3%BAan-saqueos-e-incendios/a-51378952.Google Scholar
Disi Pavlic, R (2018) Sentenced to Debt: Explaining Student Mobilization in Chile. Latin American Research Review 55, 448–465.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dix, RH (1992) Democratization and the Institutionalization of Latin American Political Parties. Comparative Political Studies 24, 488–511.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edwards, ME (2015) Understanding Presidential Failure in South America. Latin American Politics and Society 57, 111–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erbsen de Maldonado, K and Barahona, M MA (2010) Guatemala: Danzando con las Crisis Económica y Política. Revista de Ciencia Política 30(2), 335–360.Google Scholar
Espina, C and García, E (2015) El Día que el Partido Patriota Votó en contra del Presidente Pérez. El Periódico, 3 September. https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2015/09/03/el-dia-que-el-partido-patriota-voto-en-contra-del-presidente-perez/.Google Scholar
Flores-Macías, GA (2010) Statist vs. Pro-Market: Explaining Leftist Governments' Economic Policies in Latin America. Comparative Politics 42, 413–433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freidenberg, F (2003) Partidos y Gobiernos en Ecuador (1979–1998): Gobiernos ‘Anti’ Partidos y Partidos ‘Anti’ Gobiernos. In Alcántara Sáez, M and Martínez Barahona, E (eds), Política, Dinero e Institucionalización Partidista en América Latina. México: Universidad Iberoamericana, pp. 391–447.Google Scholar
Fuenzalida Caris, L (2018) Los Factores que Inciden en las Presidencias Fallidas en América Latina: Los Casos de Dilma Rousseff y Otto Pérez Molina. Masters thesis, Universidad de Chile.Google Scholar
Helmke, G (2017) Institutions on the Edge: The Origins and Consequences of Inter-Branch Crises in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hochstetler, K (2006) Rethinking Presidentialism: Challenges and Presidential Falls in South America. Comparative Politics 38, 401–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hochstetler, K and Edwards, ME (2009) Failed Presidencies: Identifying and Explaining a South American Anomaly. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1, 31–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huneeus, C (2014) La Democracia Semisoberana: Chile Después de Pinochet. Santiago de Chile: Taurus.Google Scholar
Janda, K (1980) Political Parties: A Cross-National Survey. New York: The Free Press.Google Scholar
Jones, MP (2011) Weakly Institutionalized Party Systems and Presidential Democracy: Evidence from Guatemala. International Area Studies Review 14, 3–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, YH (2014) Impeachment and Presidential Politics in New Democracies. Democratization 21, 519–553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Y and Bahry, D (2008) Interrupted Presidencies in Third Wave Democracies. Journal of Politics 70, 807–822.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, H and Wilkinson, S (2007) Patrons, Clients and Policies: Patterns of Democratic Accountability and Political Competition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kouba, K (2016) Party Institutionalization and the Removal of Presidential Term Limits in Latin America. Revista de Ciencia Política 36, 433–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lanser, AM (2015) Evaluation of Methods for Survival Analysis in the Presence of Extremely Few Events per Variable. Master's thesis, Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University.Google Scholar
Latin American Weekly Report (LAWR) (2018) Reports WR-18-01 to WR-18-50. London: Latin News. www.latinnews.com/component/k2/itemlist/category/33.html.Google Scholar
Lautaro Rosal, R (2013) Guatemala: Recambio Político y Conflictividad Endémica. Revista de Ciencia Política 33(1), 207–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lautaro Rosal, R and Solares, HA (2009) Guatemala 2008: La Democracia en medio de un Escenario Complejo. Revista de Ciencia Política 29(2), 429–451.Google Scholar
Levitsky, S (2003) Transforming Labor-Based Parties in Latin America: Argentine Peronism in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, S (2018) Peru: The Institutionalization of Politics Without Parties. Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 326–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Linz, JJ and Stepan, A (1996) Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Llanos, M and Marsteintredet, L (2010) Conclusions: Presidential Breakdowns Revisited. In Llanos M and Marsteintredet L (eds), Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America: Causes and Outcomes of Executive Instability in Developing Democracies. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 213–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luna, JP and Altman, D (2011) Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization. Latin American Politics and Society 53, 1–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machado Puertas, HC (2007) Ecuador: El Derrumbe de los Partidos Tradicionales. Revista de Ciencia Política 27, 129–147.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, S (2018) Party System Institutionalization, Predictability, and Democracy. In Mainwaring, S (ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 71–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, S and Scully, TR (1995) Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, S and Torcal, M (2006) Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory After the Third Wave of Democratization. In Katz, RS and Cotty, W (eds), Handbook of Party Politics. London: Sage, pp. 204–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, S, Bizzarro, F and Petrova, A (2018) Party System Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. In Mainwaring, S (ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 17–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malamud, A (2015) Social Revolution or Political Takeover? The Argentine Collapse of 2001 Reassessed. Latin American Perspectives 42(1), 11–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martínez, CA (2017) Presidential Survival in South America: Rethinking the Role of Democracy. International Political Science Review 38, 40–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martínez, CA (2018a) Democratic Tradition and the Failed Presidency of Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador. Bulletin of Latin American Research 37, 321–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martínez, CA (2018b) La Presidencia en el Chile de la Posdictadura. In Huneeus, C and Avendaño, O (eds), El Sistema Político de Chile. Santiago: LOM Ediciones, pp. 85–117.Google Scholar
Masek, V (2019) In Guatemala, Out with the Old, In with the Older. NACLA, 12 August, https://nacla.org/news/2020/03/03/guatemala-out-old-older.Google Scholar
Mejía-Acosta, A and Polga-Hecimovich, J (2011) Coalition Erosion and Presidential Instability in Ecuador. Latin American Politics and Society 53, 87–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meleshevich, AA (2007) Party Systems in Post-Soviet Countries. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mills, M (2011) Introducing Survival and Event History Analysis. London: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mustapic, AM (2010) Presidentialism and Early Exits: The Role of Congress. In Llanos, M and Marsteintredet, L (eds) Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America: Causes and Outcomes of Executive Instability in Developing Democracies. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 17–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Novales Contreras, H (2014) Partidos Políticos Guatemaltecos: Financiamiento e Institucionalidad. Guatemala: Asociación de Investigación y Estudios Sociales.Google Scholar
Pachano, S (2001) Partidos y Clientelismo en Ecuador. Quórum 1, 21–39.Google Scholar
Pallister, K (2017) Guatemala: The Fight for Accountability and the Rule of Law. Revista de Ciencia Política 37(2), 471–491.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Panebianco, A (1988) Political Parties: Organization and Power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Peñafiel, C (2003) Gutiérrez Rearma su Gabinete y sus Alianzas. El Universo, 8 August.Google Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, A (2007) Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, A (2014) A Two-Level Theory of Presidential Instability. Latin American Politics and Society 56, 34–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, A and Polga-Hecimovich, J (2017) Explaining Military Coups and Impeachments in Latin America. Democratization 24, 839–858.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, A, Schmidt, N and Vairo, D (2019) Presidential Hegemony and Democratic Backsliding in Latin America, 1925–2016. Democratization 4, 606–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Randall, V and Svåsand, L (2002) Party Institutionalization in New Democracies. Party Politics 8, 5–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, DJ and Shugart, MS (2010) Presidents, Parties, and Prime Ministers: How the Separation of Powers Affects Party Organization and Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schamis, HE (2002) Argentina: Crisis and Democratic Consolidation. Journal of Democracy 13, 81–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schattschneider, EE (2009) Party Government. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Shugart, MS and Carey, JM (1992) Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siavelis, PM (2002) Exaggerated Presidentialism and Moderate Presidents: Executive-Legislative Relations in Chile. In Morgenstern, S and Nacif, B (eds), Legislative Politics in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 79–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, SC (2001) Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Valenzuela, A (2004) Latin American Presidencies Interrupted. Journal of Democracy 15, 6–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Villagra de León, F (1993) Thwarting the Guatemalan Coup. Journal of Democracy 4(4), 117–124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vittinghoff, E and McCulloch, CE (2007) Relaxing the Rule of Ten Events per Variable in Logistic and Cox Regression. American Journal of Epidemiology 165, 710–718.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Warwick, P (1995) Government Survival in Parliamentary Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2018) World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Martínez supplementary material

Tables A1-A2

Download Martínez supplementary material(File)
File 18 KB