Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2014
ELECTIONINS THE FEDERAL STATES (Länder) OF WEST GERMANY are frequently interpreted as indicators of national political opinion in much the same way as by-elections in Britain are examined for pointers to trends in the fortunes of the major political parties. Similar factors seem to operate in both cases: a general swing against the party in office; a tendency to see these elections as confidence votes with consequent effects on the morale of the government and opposition parties; and the use of them to register a protest vote since voters are free of the responsibility of having to choose a national government. National ministers intervene in both countries to speak on behalf of local candidates in order to enhance their parties’ chances, while the mass media usually view these elections in national terms, for interest tends to focus more on the impact of the elections on national politics than on any serious estimation of the actual part played by national issues during the course of the election campaigns.
1 A good example is provided by the Lincoln by‐election in March 1973. The BBC ten o'clock news programme ‘The World Tonight’ commented on 22 February that the three by‐elections on 1 March (including the one at Lincoln) would amount to ‘a mini‐general election’ and that all parties would ‘sense the mood of the country’. Virtually all members of the Shadow Cabinet appeared to speak on behalf of the official Labour candidate. Yet ironically the election in Lincoln confirmed the impression gained from by‐elections in 1972 of the importance of the local political situation (see Michael Steed, ‘Vote‐switching may herald new election trend’ in The Observer, 4 March 1973).
2 Turnout in the by‐elections during the 1955–59 Parliament varied between 24·9 per cent and 90·4 per cent. During the 1964–66 Parliament turnout in the thirteen by‐elections averaged 64·4 per cent compared with 77 per cent at the 1964 general election and 75·8 per cent at the 1966 general election. Voter participation in by‐elections can rise considerably under the impact of national attention. As many as 72·6 per cent of the voters of Lincoln participated in the by‐election in March 1973, only two per cent less than in the general election in 1970.
3 Turnout in West German Bundestag elections has varied between 78·5 per cent in 1949 and 91·2 per cent in 1972, while in state elections it has fluctuated between 70·2 per cent – 90·3 per cent during the second Bundestag and 69·8 per cent – 80·9 per cent during the fifth Bundestag. Average turnout in local elections is around 70 per cent compared with about 40 per cent in Britain.
4 Tonescu, G. and de Madariaga, I., Opposition: Past and Present of a Political Institution, Penguin, 1972, p. 105 Google Scholar.
5 Becker, Kurt, ‘Denkzettel oder Signal, der bundespolitische Hintergrund der Landtagswahlen’, Die Zeit, 12 06 1970 Google Scholar.
6 Die Zeit, 24 April 1970.
7 For a discussion of the relationship between dissatisfaction with the last Adenauer government and state elections during the fourth Bundestag see Kaltefleiter, Werner, ‘Wahler and Parteien in den Landtagswahlen 1961–1965’ in Zeitscbrift für Politik, 1965, pp. 224 Google Scholar ff.
8 See Conradt, David, ‘Electoral Law Politics in West Germany’ in Political Studies, Vol. XVIII, 09 1970, pp. 346–9Google Scholar.
9 The distinction between ‘federal politics’ and ‘Land politics’ is often fluid. One criterion would be respective fields of policy reserved to the federal and state governments, but even here the distinction is not always fine. Education policy is primarily a Land matter, although it became the most controversial aspect of Federal‐Land relations during the first Brandt government because of unsuccessful attempts by the Federal Ministry of Education to initiate reforms. University unrest is essentially a problem for the Land authorities, but it is seen in the eyes of the electorate as an issue of more than provincial interest because it is a widespread phenomenon in the Federal Republic. The massacre of members of the Israeli Olympic team in September 1972 came within the province of the Bavarian security officials, but it was quickly seen as a matter of ‘national’ importance, as emphasized by the much‐publicized role of Genscher, the Federal Minister of the Interior. Law and order has become more of a ‘national issue’ over the past years. Foreign policy and external defence are clearly a federal matter.
10 The term ‘Bonn politicians’, that is Bundesprominenz, refers essentially to party leaders who either hold an important federal office or in the case of the opposition are regarded as influential figures in the Bundestag Fraktion. A fine distinction cannot always be made here, for many Bonn politicians have initially gained a political reputation in Land politics or in exceptional cases, municipal politics. Willy Brandt held a ‘provincial’ office until he became Foreign Minister in 1966, although the Berlin situation and his two earlier candidacies for the Federal Chancellorship meant that he acquired the aura of a national politician in spite of the fact that he did not operate from Bonn. Gerhard Stoltenberg was a prominent CDU ‘frontbencher’ in Bonn until his election as Minister‐President of Schleswig‐Holstein in 1971, although his career in national politics may not be seriously affected by this move, and possibly enhanced. Similarly, Helmut Kohl, Minister‐President of the Rhineland‐Palatinate, has pursued a successful ‘provincial’ career but his national importance will increase with his election to the CDU chairmanship. Conceivably one may argue that Karl‐Heinz Narjes, Barzel's choice in 1972 for the economics portfolio in his future cabinet if elected, suffered from the fact that his sudden projection into federal politics from being a relatively unknown minister in Schleswig‐Holstein did not bring with it a corresponding image as a national politician. Hans‐Jochen Vogel, former mayor of Munich and one of the new appointments to Brandt's second cabinet in December 1972, is the most recent example of a successful transfer from municipal to federal politics.
11 Zundel, Rolf, ‘Kalter Wind aus Kiel’, Die Zeit, 30 04 1971 Google Scholar
12 Compare for instance the SPD's successes in state elections during 1950–51, when it mounted a campaign against the Adenauer government's policy on rearmament which was not then very popular with the electorate.
13 Der Spiegel, 20 March 1972, p. 22.
14 See for instance the study of the elections of 1962 and 1966 in North‐Rhine Westphalia by Erhard Blankenburg, Kirebliehe Bindung and Wablverbalten, Olten and Freiburg/Breisgau, 1967, according to which new trends in electoral behaviour were visible in other Lander in spite of differences in social structure between North‐Rhine Westphalia and the Federal Republic in general. The size of the population of North‐Rhine Westphalia with over 17 million people is comparable to that of an average West European country. It is for instance more than twice the size of Sweden, nearly three times the size of Switzerland, more than three times the size of Denmark, more than four times the size of Norway and nearly six times the size of the Republic of Ireland.
15 See the analysis of the election results in North‐Rhine Westphalia in Die Zeit, 19 June 1970.
16 Summarized in Der Spiegel, 7 June 1971, p. 44.