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Health care and the future of economic growth: exploring alternative perspectives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2019

Martin Hensher Open the ORCID record for Martin Hensher [Opens in a new window] ,
John Tisdell ,
Ben Canny  and
Craig Zimitat
Martin Hensher*
Affiliation:
Deakin Health Economics, Deakin University, Building BC3, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, VIC3125, Australia
John Tisdell
Affiliation:
Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 84, HobartTAS7001, Australia
Ben Canny
Affiliation:
School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 34, HobartTAS7000, Australia
Craig Zimitat
Affiliation:
Curtin Learning and Teaching, Curtin University, PerthWA6150, Australia
*
*Corresponding author. Email: martin.hensher@deakin.edu.au
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Abstract

The strong and positive relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and health expenditure is one of the most extensively explored topics in health economics. Since the global financial crisis, a variety of theories attempting to explain the slow recovery of the global economy have predicted that future economic growth will be slower than in the past. Others have increasingly questioned whether GDP growth is desirable or sustainable in the long term as evidence grows of humanity's impact on the natural environment. This paper reviews recent data on trends in global GDP growth and health expenditure. It examines a range of theories and scenarios concerning future global GDP growth prospects. It then considers the potential implications for health care systems and health financing policy of these different scenarios. In all cases, a core question concerns whether growth in GDP and/or growth in health expenditure in fact increases human health and well-being. Health care systems in low growth or ‘post-growth’ futures will need to be much more tightly focused on reducing overtreatment and low value care, reducing environmental impact, and on improving technical and allocative efficiency. This will require much more concerted policy and regulatory action to reduce industry rent-seeking behaviours.

Keywords

Economic growthhealth expenditurehealth system sustainabilityheterodox economicspost-growth health care
Type
Articles
Information
Health Economics, Policy and Law , Volume 15 , Issue 4 , October 2020 , pp. 419 - 439
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

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