Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T22:34:34.280Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The state of American health care: November 2016 to November 2020, a look forward

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 February 2017

Theodore Marmor  and
Michael K. Gusmano
Theodore Marmor
Affiliation:
Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
Michael K. Gusmano*
Affiliation:
Rutgers University and the Hastings Center, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
*
*Correspondence to: Michael K. Gusmano, Rutgers University and the Hastings Center, 112 Paterson Street, Room 424, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. Email: gusmanom@thehastingscenter.org
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the retention of Republican majorities in the US House of Representatives and Senate, raises questions about future of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the structure and funding of the country’s public health insurance programs – Medicare, Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Program – and the direction of health policy in the United States, more generally. Political scientists are not renowned for their capacity to predict the future and many of those who forecast election results have received criticism in recent weeks for failing to predict the Trump victory. While the future is uncertain, it is possible for social scientists to offer a ‘conditional causal analysis’ about the future. This essay is an effort to think about the likely shape of American health care between now and the next US presidential election.

Type
Perspective
Information
Health Economics, Policy and Law , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , January 2018 , pp. 1 - 9
Check for updates
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Artiga, S. and Rudowitz, R. (2014), Medicaid Enrollment Under the Affordable Care Act: Understanding the Numbers. Kaiser Family Foundation, http://kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/medicaid-enrollment-under-the-affordable-care-act-understanding-the-numbers/ [23 November 2016].Google Scholar
Blakely, J. (2016), ‘Is Political Science This Year’s Election Casualty?’ The Atlantic Monthlo. November 14, http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/11/is-political-science-another-election-casualty/507515/ [24 November 2016].Google Scholar
Blumenthal, D. (2014), ‘The Three R’s of Health Insurance’. To The Point: The Commonwealth Fund, http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/blog/2014/mar/the-three-rs-of-health-insurance [25 November 2016].Google Scholar
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (2016), Promises and Price Tags: An Update. Budgets & Projections, September 22, http://crfb.org/papers/promises-and-price-tags-preliminary-update [22 November 2016].Google Scholar
Cutler, D. (2016), ‘Here’s why Trump is already waffling on Obamacare’, The Washington Post, 12 November.Google Scholar
Gusmano, M. K. (2011), ‘Do we really want to control health care spending?’, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 36(3): 495–500.Google Scholar
Gusmano, M. K. (2015), ‘Health Care in the 2012 Election’, in D. M. Brattebo, T. Lansford and J. Covarrubias (eds), The Presidential Election of 2012: A Transformation in American National Politics, Akron, OH: University of Akron Press, 163–180.Google Scholar
Jost, T. (2016), ‘Day one and beyond: what Trump’s election means for the ACA’, Health Affairs Blog, 9 November, http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2016/11/09/day-one-and-beyond-what-trumps-election-means-for-the-aca/ [25 November 2016].Google Scholar
Marmor, T. R. (1998), ‘Forecasting American health care: how we got here and where we might be going’, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 23(3): 551–571.Google Scholar
Marmor, T. R., Oberlander, J. and White, J. (2009), ‘The Obama administration’s options for health care cost control: hope versus reality’, Annals of Internal Medicine, 150(7): 485–489.Google Scholar
McDonough, J. and Fletcher, M. (2015), ‘What would Republicans do instead of the Affordable Care Act?’, Health Affairs Blog, 18 September, http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/09/18/what-would-republicans-do-instead-of-the-affordable-care-act/ [21 November 2016].Google Scholar
Meyer, H. (2016), ‘Blog: are Paul Ryan’s high-risk pools a better way to insure sick people?’, Modern Healthcare, 28 April, http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20160428/BLOG/160429901/blog-are-paul-ryans-high-risk-pools-a-better-way-to-insure-sick [25 November 2016].Google Scholar
Nathan, R. P. and Doolittle, F. C. (2014), Reagan and the States, Princeton, NJ: Princeton Legacy Library.Google Scholar
Oberlander, J. (2011), ‘Throwing darts: Americans’ elusive search for health care cost control’, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 36(3): 477–484.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Paradise, J. (2014), ‘The Impact of the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP): What Does the Research Tell Us?’ Issue Brief, The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, 17 July, http://kff.org/report-section/the-impact-of-the-childrens-health-insurance-program-chip-issue-brief/ [22 December 2016].Google Scholar
Pence, M. R. (2014), Letter transmitting the Healthy Indiana Plan waiver proposal to Secretary of Health and Human Services, Sylvia Burwell, 2 July.Google Scholar
Pozen, R. C. (2016), ‘Donald Trump’s tax plan could land America $10 trillion deeper in debt’. Op-Ed, The Brookings Institution, 7 March, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/donald-trumps-tax-plan-could-land-america-10-trillion-deeper-in-debt/ [25 November 2016].Google Scholar
Reich, R. (2016), ‘Trump’s Trickle-Down Populism’, http://robertreich.org/, 2 December [21 December 2016].Google Scholar
Thompson, F. J. and Gusmano, M. K. (2014), ‘The administrative presidency and fractious federalism: the case of Obamacare’, Publius, https://doi.org/10.1093/publius/pju011 Google Scholar