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Cross-National Effects of Developmental, Distributional, and Demographic Variables on Crime: A Review and Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

Gary D. LaFree  and
Edward L. Kick
Gary D. LaFree
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology. The University of New Mexico
Edward L. Kick
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology. The University of Utah
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Summary

This paper examines an apparent contradiction in recent comparative research on crime. Most quantitative studies assume that social-structural variables which cause crime operate uniformly across different crime types — for example, income inequality increases both murder and theft rates. However, our review of this research, and our own multivariate analysis of murder and theft rates in 47 countries, suggest that social-structural variables have opposite effects on murder and theft rates. The most important predictor of both murder and theft in our analysis is population growth. Drawing on case studies and comparative essays, we offer a preliminary theoretical explanation for the opposite effects of social-structural variables — especially population growth — on murder and theft. This explanation is based on variations in the opportunities and incentives for murder and theft in developing and developed countries. We suspect that population growth measures the strength of primary group relations; that societies characterized by frequent and intense interaction between primary group members provide many opportunities for murder, but because of effective surveillance, few opportunities for theft.

Résumé

Résumé

Cette étude examine les conclusions apparemment contradictoires d'une récente recherche comparative sur la criminalité. La plupart des études qualitatives suppose que les variables socio-culturelles qui sont à l'origine du crime jouent de manière identique sur les différents types de crimes — par exemple l'inégalité des revenus provoque à la fois l'augmentation des meurtres et des vols - Cependant notre lecture de cette recherche ainsi que notre propre analyse pluridimmensionnelle sur les taux des meurtres et des vols dans 47 pays aboutissent à la constatation d'effets opposés de ces variables sur le nombre de meurtres et de vols… Dans notre analyse le meilleur indicateur des variations de ces taux est l'accroissement de la population. A partir d'études de cas et d'analyses comparatives, nous aboutissont à une première explication théorique des effets differenciels des variables socio-culturelles — en particulier l'accroissement de la population — sur le meurtre et le vol. Cette explication se fonde sur la variabilité des opportunités et des mobiles du crime et du vol dans les pays développés et en voie de développement. Nous pensons que la croissance de la population mesure la force des relations du groupe initial; que les sociétés caractérisées par de fréquentes et intenses interactions entre les membres du groupe initial connaissent d'avantage d'occasions de meurtres mais, en raison de la surveillance effective, moins d'opportunités de vols.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
International Annals of Criminology , Volume 24 , Issue 1-2 , 1986 , pp. 213 - 235
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 International Society for Criminology

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Footnotes

Revision of a paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Sociological Association, Detroit, 1983. This research was partially supported by the University of New Mexico's Research Allocation Committee and by University of Utah Research Grant N° 6-41554. We wish to thank Lee Churgin for her help with data preparation and several anonymous reviewers for their comments.

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