Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T09:05:00.517Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Demographic Transition in the Middle East and North Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

James Allman
James Allman
Affiliation:
Columbia University, New York
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Is there indeed a new or renewed demographic transition? The evidence suggests that there is. A rapidly growing number of countries of diverse cultural background have entered the natality transition since World War II and after a 25-year lapse in such entries. In these countries the transition is moving much faster than it did in Europe. This is probably related to the fact that progress in general is moving much faster in such matters as urbanization, education, health, communication, and often per capita income.

Type
Articles
Information
International Journal of Middle East Studies , Volume 12 , Issue 3 , November 1980 , pp. 277 - 301
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1980

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Notes

Author's Note: I would like to thank Allan Hill, Huda Zuryck, Atef Khalifa, Peter Doad, Samir Khalaf, Serim Timur, and the IJMES reviewer for helpful, critical comments on an earlier draft of this paper which was published in J. Aliman, ed., Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, New York: Praeger, 1978, pp. 3–32.

1 Dudley, Kirk, “A New Demographic Transition?” Rapid Population Growth. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1971, vol. 2, p. 147.Google Scholar

2 The countries discussed in this article are listed in Table 1. Generally, the area under consideration, which we refer to as the Middle East and North Africa, corresponds to the geographical area from Morocco in the west to Iran in the east.

3 For a review of the situation in the region only a few years ago see Shafi, A. M. N. El, “Administrative and other problems of data collection in North Africa and West Asian Arabic speaking countries.” International Population Conference, London, 1969, vol. 1, pp. 286–293.Google Scholar See also George, Sabagh, “The demography of the Middle East,” Middle East Studies Association Bulletin, vol.4, No.2, 05 1970, pp. 1–9 and “Civil registration and vital statistics in selected countries in the Middle East,” Population Bulletin of the UN Economic and Social Office in Beirut, No. 2, 01 1972, pp.13–19.Google Scholar An indication of how demographic knowledge is improving dramatically in recent years is found in Levels and Trends of Fertility and Mortality in Selected Arab Countries of West Asia, Amman, , Jordan, , The Population Studies Programme, 1980.Google Scholar

4 Clarke, J. L. and Fisher, W. B., eds., Populations of the Middle East and North Africa. New York: Africana, 1972, p. 15.Google Scholar

5 Notes 2 and 3 of the “1975 World Population Data Sheet,” Population Reference Bureau, Washington. The crude death rate (CDR), the crude birth rate (CBR) and infant mortality rates are given per 1,000 throughout the text.

6 For a discussion of migration in ihe region see the essays in Clarke and Fisher, op. cit.; and Youssef, Courbage and Philippe, Fargues, “La population des pays arabes d'Orient,” Population, vol. 30, No. 6, 11–12 1975, pp. 111–141.Google Scholar

7 For a discussion of the demography of the Palestinians see Courbage and Fargues, op. cit., and Allan, G. Hill, “Population Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: Selected policy issues” in The Middle East: Oil, Conflict and Hope, ed. Udovitch, A. L., Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1976, pp. 7–56.Google Scholar

8 For recent discussions of the demographic transition see Coale, A. J., “The Demographic Transition Reconsidered,” International Population Conference, Liege, Belgium, 1973, vol. 1, pp. 53–72,Google ScholarTeitelbaum, M. S., “Relevance of demographic transition theory for developing countries,” Science, vol. 188, 2 05 1975, pp. 420–425,CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed and Beaver, S. E., Demographic Transition Theory Reinterpreted, Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1975.Google Scholar

9 See, for example, David, Riesman, The Lonely Crowd, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1961, Chapter 1.Google Scholar

10 Coale, , op. cit., p. 64.Google Scholar

11 Teitelbaum, , op. cit., p. 424.Google Scholar

12 Coale, , op. cit., p.65.Google Scholar

13 Riad, B. Tabbarah, “Toward a theory of demographic development.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 19, No. 2, 01 1971, p. 258.Google Scholar

14 See Janet, Abu–Lughod, “The Emergence of differential fertility in urban Egypt,” The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 43, 04, 1965, and “Urban–rural differences as a function of the demographic transition: Egyptian data and an analytical model,” American Journal of Sociology. vol. 69, No. 3, 03, 1964.Google ScholarFrederic, C. Shorter, “The Application of development hypotheses in Middle Eastern Studies,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 14, No. 3, 04, 1966, pp. 340–354.Google Scholar

15 Lee-Jay, Cho et al. , Differential Current Fertility in the United States. Chicago: Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago, 1970, p. 296.Google Scholar

16 Some of the problems involved in measuring this impact are discussed in Watson, W. B. and Lapham, R. J., eds., “Family Planning Programs: World Review 1974,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 6, No. 8, 08 1975, pp. 215–219.Google ScholarPubMed

17 Several demographic factors, such as age structure and life expectancy, which have effects on CBR, CDR and growth rate will generally not be dealt with in this paper since satisfactory data are unavailable for most of the countries of the region. For a discussion of these factors see Tomas, Frejka, The Future of Population Growth, New York: John Wiley, 1973, Chapter 1;Google Scholar and Ansley, J. Coale, “Birth rates, death rates, and rates of growth in human population,” in Mindel, C. Sheps and Jeanne, Clare Ridley, eds., Public Health and Population Change, Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1965, pp. 242–265.Google Scholar

18 For a recent review of the demographic situation with emphasis on family planning see Joel, G. Montague, ed., “The Middle East and North Africa,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 6, No. 8, 08 1975, pp. 302–319. Also of great interest in regard to demographic data are the country monographs sponsored by CICRED, the Committee for International Co-ordination of National Research in Demography, based at the National Institute of Demography in Paris. We have used extensively the studies prepared on Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Iran and Turkey in this paper. They were all completed for World Population Year in 1974.Google Scholar

19 The Population of Turkey, CICRED, p. 12.Google Scholar

20 See Atef, Khalifa,The Population of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Paris, CICRED, 1974, for more details.Google Scholar

21 The Population of Turkey, op. cit., p. 39.Google Scholar

22 ibid., p. 17.

23 ibid., p. 40.

24 The Population of the Arab Republic of Egypt, CICRED, p. 5.Google Scholar

25 ibid., pp. 13–14.

26 La Population de Ia Tunisie, CICRED, p. 37.Google Scholar

27 ibid., p. 67.

28 La Population du Liban, CICRED, p. 37.Google Scholar

29 The Population of Turkey, op. cit., p. 17.Google Scholar

30 ibid., p. 38.

31 See Coale, A. J. et al. , “A new method of estimating standard fertility measures from incomplete data.” Population Index, vol. 41, No. 2, 04 1975, pp. 207–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

32 See Hayam, Aly El Biblawi, “Pattern and trends of fertility in Egypt,” Cairo Demographic Center, unpublished General Diploma paper, 12 1974, pp. 14–15.Google Scholar

33 Montague, , op. cit., p. 306.Google Scholar

34 See Abu-Lughod, J., “Urban-rural differences as a function of the demographic transition: Egyptian data and an analytical model.” American Journal of Sociology, vol. 69, No. 3, 03 1964;CrossRefGoogle Scholar and El-Badry, M. A., “Trends in the components of population growth in the Arab countries of the Middle East: a survey of present information.” Demography, vol. 2, 1965, pp. 140–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

35 See Atef, Khalifa, “Rural-urban fertility differences and trends in Egypt: 1930–1970,” in Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, Ailman, J., ed., pp. 77–94.Google Scholar

36 Abu-Lughod, J., “The Emergence of Differential fertility in urban Egypt,” op. cit., p. 251.Google Scholar

37 The Population of the Arab Republic of Egypt, p. 11.Google Scholar

38 See Mohamed, Ayad and Yolande, Jemai, “Fertility declines in Tunisia: factors affecting recent trends,” in Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, Allman, J., ed., pp. 152–163.Google Scholar

39 La Population du Liban, pp. 28–29.Google Scholar

40 Yaukey, D., Fertility Differences in a Modernizing Country. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

41 La Population du Liban, p. 31.Google Scholar

42 See the critique of his study in La Population du Liban, pp. 32–35.Google Scholar

43 ibid., p. 35.

44 ibid.

45 Raana, Ahmad, “A study of social differentials among non users and users of contraception in Lebanon.” Unpublished Master's thesis, American University of Beirut, 1974, p. 26.Google Scholar

46 See Chamie, J., Religion and Population Dynamics in Lebanon, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1977.Google Scholar

47 Raja, Saliba Tanas, “Family planning in Tyre.” Unpublished Master's thesis, American University of Beirut, 1974, p. vi.Google Scholar

48 La Population du Liban, p. 32.Google Scholar

49 ibid., p. 27.

50 The data in this paper on population and family planning are drawn primarily from Montague, J., op. cit.; and Nortman, D.,. “Population and family planning programs: A fact book,” Reports on Population/Family Planning, No. 2, 6th Edition, 12 1974.Google Scholar

51 Montague, , op. cit., p. 307.Google Scholar

52 ibid., p. 309.

53 Personal communication from Dr., Serim Timur, Population Division, UNESCO, Paris, 04, 1976.Google Scholar

54 See Tanas, R. S., Ahmad, R. A., and La Population du Liban, op. cit.Google Scholar

55 See M. Ayad and Y. Jemai, op. cit.

56 Montague, , p. 307.Google Scholar

57 Kjurciev, A. and Courbage, Y., “Alternative population projections and analysis of the essential data in Bahrain.” Population Bulletin of the UN Economic Commission for Western Asia, No. 6, 01 1974, p. 39.Google Scholar

58 Clarke, and Fisher, , p. 71.Google Scholar

59 La Population de l'Algérie, CICRED, p. 19.Google Scholar

60 La Population du Maroc, CICRED, p. 17.Google Scholar

61 La Population de l'Iran, CICRED, p. 13.Google Scholar

62 Cairo Demographic Center, Demographic Measures and Population Growth in the Arab Countries, Cairo, 1970, p. 69.Google Scholar

63 See Hanna, Rizk, “Fertility trends and differentials in Jordan,” in Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, Allman, J., ed., pp. 113–130.Google Scholar

64 Clarke, and Fisher, , p. 215.Google Scholar

65 Fatimah, Khalil, “Indigenous Midwifery in selected villages in the second governorate of People's Democratic Republic of Yemen.” Unpublished Master's thesis, American University of Beirut, 1972, p. 169.Google Scholar

66 See Allan, Hill, “Fertility Trends and differentials in Kuwait,” in Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, Aliman, J., ed., pp. 95–112.Google Scholar

67 Krotki, K. J. and Beaujot, R., “La population marocaine: reconstitution de l'évolution de 1950 à 1971.” Population, vol. 30, No. 2, 03–04 1975, p. 367.Google Scholar

68 See Jacques, Vallin, “Fertility in Algeria: trends and differentials,” in Women's Status and Fertility in the Muslim World, Allman, J., ed., pp. 131–151.Google Scholar

69 Hill, op. cit.

70 Rizk, op. cit.

71 Kjurciev and Courbage, p. 45.

72 La Population de l'Iran, p. 10.Google Scholar

73 Population Dynamics and Educational Development in Syria, Exhibit I: Population Dynamics. Beirut: UNESCO Regional Office for Education in the Arab States, 1974.Google Scholar

74 Vallin, op. cit.

75 Rizk, op. cit.

76 “La fécondité marocaine.” Rabat: Centre de Recherches et d'Etudes demographiques, 1974, pp. 10–11.

77 La Population du Maroc, p. 20.

78 See Lapham, R. J., “Family Planning attitudes, knowledge and practice in the Sais Plain,” Studies in Family Planning, vol. 58, 10 1970, p. 22.Google Scholar

79 Sabagh, G., “Analyse de l'influence du niveau d'instruction sur la fécondité au Maroc.” Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, Nos. 17–18, 06–09 1969, p. 263.Google Scholar

80 La Population du Maroc, p. 14.Google Scholar

81 Paydarfar, A. A., “Sociocultural correlates of fertility among tribal, rural and urban populations in Iran.” Social Biology, vol. 22, No. 2, Summer 1975, pp. 156–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

82 ibid., p. 166.

83 Amani, M., “Report on the study of the impact of literacy and education on fertility and family planning by KAP method in city of Tehran and city of Isfahan.” Tehran: Institute for Social Studies, University of Tehran, 1971.Google Scholar

84 Khalil, , p. 233.Google Scholar

85 ibid., p. 169.

86 Population Dynamics and Education Development in Syria. op. cit., p. 16.Google Scholar

87 See Kjurciev, A. et al. “Population dynamics and education in the development process of the Arab countries.” Paper presented at the Seminar of Experts on Population-Education-Development in the Arab countries, ASFEC, Sirs El Layyan, Egypt, 21–29 02, 1976, p. 50.Google Scholar

88 Rizk, op. cit.

89 Hill, op. cit.

90 Cairo, Demographic Center, Demographic Measures and Population Growth in the Arab Countries, p. 186.Google Scholar

91 For a discussion of demographic parameters in the Yemen Arab Republic and a presentation of recent survey data, see James, Allman and Allan, Hill, “Fertility, mortality, migration and family planning in the Yemen Arab Republic,” Population Studies, Vol. 32, No. 1, 1978, pp. 159–171.Google Scholar

92 Ahmed El Tay, Omer, “Country Statement–Sudan.” Economic Commission for Africa, Working group on fertility levels and differentials in Africa, and prospects for the future. Addis Ababa, 18–22 12 1972;Google Scholar and Soliman Noureldin, S., “Analysis of data on fertility, mortality and economic activity of urban population in Libya based on a household sample survey.” The Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, 06 1971.Google Scholar

93 ibid.

94 Henin, R. A., “Nomadic fertility as compared with that of rain cultivators in Sudan.” International Population Conference, London, 1969, vol. 1, p. 796.Google Scholar

95 Noureldin, S. S., pp. 48–51.Google Scholar

96 Montague, , p. 314.Google Scholar

97 See Henin and Paydarfar, op. cit.

98 For a recent review of this controversy see Harik, I., The Political Modernization of Peasants: A Study of an Egyptian Community, Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1974, pp. 13–27Google Scholar; and van Nieuwenhuijze, C. A. O., ed., Commoners, Climbers and Notables: A Sampler of Studies on Social Ranking in the Middle East. Leiden, E. J. Brill, 1977.Google Scholar

99 Coale, A. J., “The Decline of fertility in Europe from the French Revolution to World War II”, in Behrman, S. J. et al. eds., Fertility and Family Planning: A World View. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 1969, p. 19.Google Scholar

100 Kirk, D., “Factors affecting Moslem natality”, in Berelson, B. et al. , eds., Family Planning and Population Programs. Chicago: the University of Chicago Press, 1966, p. 61.Google Scholar

101 ibid., p. 569.

102 Seklani, M., “La fécondité dans les pays arabes: données numériques, attitudes et comportements,” Population, No. 5, 1960, p. 832.Google Scholar

103 See Nazer, I. R. et al. Islam and Planned Parenthood, Beirut: IPPF, 1974.Google Scholar Originally published in Arabic, the 2 vols. provide the papers and proceedings of a meeting of Muslim religious leaders in Rabat, Morocco, in 1971. See also Musallam, B. F., “The Islamic sanction of contraception,” in Parry, H. B., ed., Population and its Problems. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1974, pp. 300–310.Google Scholar

104 See, for example, Arowolo, O., “Correlates of fertility in Moslem populations: an empirical analysis,” unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, University of Pennsylvania, 1973.Google Scholar

105 Kirk, , “A new demographic transition?” p. 144.Google Scholar

106 Audroing, J. F. et al. “Recherche des correlations entre des variables démographiques, sociologiques et économiques dans les pays arabes,” Population, vol. 30, No. 1, 01–02, 1975, p. 75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

107 Paul Schultz, T., “Fertility patterns and their determinants in the Arab Middle East,” in Cooper, C. A. and Alexander, S. S., eds., Economic Development and Population Growth in the Middle East, New York.: American Elsevier, 1972, p. 442.Google Scholar

108 See the discussion in Watson, W. B. and Lapham, R. J., pp. 207–220.Google Scholar

109 For population projection for the region see Allan, G. Hill, “Population Growth in the Middle East …” op. cit.Google Scholar