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ANALYZING 10 YEARS OF EARLY AWARENESS AND ALERT ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2012

Claire Packer ,
Matthew Fung  and
Andrew Stevens
Claire Packer
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham email: c.packer@bham.ac.uk
Matthew Fung
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
Andrew Stevens
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
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Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the English National Horizon Scanning Centre (NHSC) in identifying and filtering pharmaceutical developments using end user and international collaborator databases of emerging technologies as proxies for new drugs of likely significance to health services and/or patients.

Methods: We used the NHSC information system and the list of National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) technology appraisals to estimate the false positive rate for NHSC identification, filtration, and reporting. We assessed the sensitivity of NHSC identification and filtration of pharmaceuticals for NICE technology appraisals from 1999 to the end of December 2010, and for pharmaceuticals entered into the EuroScan International Network database.

Results: We estimate that overall NHSC identification, filtration and reporting had a positive predictive value of 0.39 (95 percent CI, 0.36 to 0.43) and a false positive rate of 60 percent. Using NICE appraisals and EuroScan's database as proxies for pharmaceuticals of significance, we estimate the NHSC sensitivity over the 10-year period at 0.92 (95 percent CI, 0.89 to 0.95) and 0.89 (95 percent CI, 0.82 to 0.96) respectively.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that the NHSC has performed well in terms of sensitivity over the past decade, but that the false positive rate of 60 percent may indicate that the filtration criteria for pharmaceuticals could be tightened for increased efficiency. Future evaluations of EAA systems should include an element of external review and explore the level of accuracy acceptable to funders and customers of such systems.

Keywords

Horizon scanningEarly awareness and alert systemsHealthcare technologyProgram effectiveness
Type
THEME: EARLY AWARENESS AND ALERT (EAA) METHODS AND SYSTEMS
Information
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care , Volume 28 , Issue 3 , July 2012 , pp. 308 - 314
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

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References

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