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PREDICTING SURVIVAL IN COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSES BASED ON CLINICAL TRIALS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 September 2003

Ulf-G. Gerdtham  and
Niklas Zethraeus
Ulf-G. Gerdtham
Affiliation:
Malmö University Hospital
Niklas Zethraeus
Affiliation:
Stockholm School of Economics
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Abstract

This study deals with the question of how to model health effects after the cessation of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). By using clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients, we illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of an RCT can be predicted based on parametric survival models. In the analysis, we compare predicted survival and the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different survival models with actual survival/ICER. Our main finding is that the results are sensitive to the choice of survival model and that an extensive sensitivity analysis in the CE analysis is required.We thank John Kjekshus for providing us with data from the consensus and a ten-year follow-up study. Comments from Magnus Johannesson on a previous version of the article are also highly appreciated.

Keywords

Cost-effectiveness analysisModelingConfidence intervals
Type
GENERAL ESSAYS
Information
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care , Volume 19 , Issue 3 , August 2003 , pp. 507 - 512
Copyright
© 2003 Cambridge University Press

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