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WHO'S BETTER NOT BEST: APPROPRIATE PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 September 2003

Douglas Coyle
Douglas Coyle
Affiliation:
Ottawa Hospital
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Abstract

The use of probabilistic analysis as a means for analyzing uncertainty within economic analysis has grown in popularity in recent years as it has been recognized as the most complete method for propagating uncertainty with respect to input parameters in terms of uncertainty about outcomes of interest. The World Health Organization (WHO) in a series of recent reports and publications have recognized the role of probabilistic analysis in what they term generalized cost-effectiveness analysis. However, there are fundamental problems with the analysis and the interpretation of such analysis as proposed by WHO. This study highlights three specific points for concern and offers constructive criticism by recommending more appropriate approaches.

Keywords

Economic analysisUncertaintyProbabilistic analysis
Type
RESEARCH NOTES
Information
International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care , Volume 19 , Issue 3 , August 2003 , pp. 540 - 545
Copyright
© 2003 Cambridge University Press

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