In Connecticut there was considerable variation by town of residence in the proportions of patients diagnosed in 1985–1988 receiving transurethral resection only, prostatectomy, and irradiation (without surgery) for local-stage prostate cancer and receiving endocrine surgery for late-stage prostate cancer. Age and socioeconomic variables were examined as predictors of this variation.

“Technology assessment” is still a relatively new concept, and its application to the field of medicine is even more recent. This results not only from an important effort to develop the scientific basis for health care, but also as a consequence of the growing concern about medical care costs (19). The term refers basically to the evaluation of the costs and effects of a medical technology. The most important methodological approach in this area has been, and still is, the traditional clinical trial, defined by Bradford Hill as “A carefully and ethically designed experiment with the aim of answering some precisely framed question,” including random allocation of the subjects in the trial (4).

The kidneys are the body's main organs of excretion. They are, however, subject to serious, progressive, and irreversible deterioration, and as a result, to a decreased ability to extract poisonous wastes and excess fluids from the blood. Almost invariably, this condition proceeds to the point where it is termed end-stage renal failure (ESRF). As the name suggests, ESRF is fatal.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a framework to predict the impact of new health technologies on average length of hospital stay.

Methods: A literature search of EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and the Health Management Information Consortium databases was conducted to identify papers that discuss the impact of new technology on length of stay or report the impact with a proposed mechanism of impact of specific technologies on length of stay. The mechanisms of impact were categorized into those relating to patients, the technology, or the organization of health care and clinical practice.

Results: New health technologies have a variable impact on length of stay. Technologies that lead to an increase in the proportion of sicker patients or increase the average age of patients remaining in the hospital lead to an increase in individual and average length of stay. Technologies that do not affect or improve the inpatient case mix, or reduce adverse effects and complications, or speed up the diagnostic or treatment process should lead to a reduction in individual length of stay and, if applied to all patients with the condition, will reduce average length of stay.

Conclusions: The prediction framework we have developed will ensure that the characteristics of a new technology that may influence length of stay can be consistently taken into consideration by assessment agencies. It is recognized that the influence of technology on length of stay will change as a technology diffuses and that length of stay is highly sensitive to changes in admission policies and organization of care.

Objectives: To explore and test methods for the operation of a national Early Warning System (EWS) in Denmark and to support decision making by the Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment on this issue.

Methods: On the basis of literature reviews, information from members of EuroScan, and supported by clinical experts and stakeholders, existing methods were adapted and new methods were developed as part of a feasibility study.

Results: Approximately 200 technologies in 30 specialties were identified on the basis of information by EuroScan. A new instrument was developed to distinguish between important and unimportant technologies (filtering). Clinical experts in six specialties applied the instrument to sixty-two technologies in their respective fields, of which nine (15%) were judged potentially important for the Danish health care system. For priority setting, adapting a Dutch instrument to the Danish context was discussed. In principle, the instrument was acceptable, but several changes were proposed, for example, relating to the decentralized structure of the Danish health care system. For early assessment, the format and methods applied by SBU and Canadian Coordinating Office for Health Technology Assessment (CCOHTA) were compared and applied to pharmaceuticals (glitazones in treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus) and a procedure (embolization of uterine fibromas). Given the main target group of the Danish EWS, local decision makers, the CCOHTA format was preferred.

Conclusions: The findings of the study have laid the foundation for an EWS using appropriate methods adapted to local circumstances. On the basis of the findings, a decision was made to start an EWS.

Objectives: Procedures and new medical devices are typically introduced into healthcare systems with limited evidence, when they might be ineffective or unsafe. Systematic data collection (“registers”) can provide valuable “real world” evidence, but difficulties in funding registers are a major obstacle. A good economic case for the value of registers would therefore be useful.

Methods: (i) Literature search on specific purposes of registers. (ii) Surveys (a) of senior clinicians involved with registers, seeking examples of beneficial outcomes, and (b) of administrators, regarding costs of running registers. (iii) A scoping exercise for possible methods to value (financially) the outputs of registers.

Results: Four main categories of beneficial outcomes from registers were identified. These were—safety and quality assurance; training and quality improvement; complementing trial evidence and reducing uncertainty; and supporting trial research. Explicit examples of all these are presented, together with information about the costs of registers. Combining these with the scoping exercise we present suggestions for a methodology of assessing the value of registers across each of the categories.

Conclusions: This study is unique in addressing methods for determining the financial value of registers, based on the amount they cost versus the financial benefits which may result from the evidence generated. Developing the suggested methods could support the case for funding new registers, by showing that their use can benefit healthcare systems through more efficient use of resources, so justifying their costs.

Objectives: Health economic models are developed as part of the health technology assessment process to determine whether health interventions represent good value for money. These models are often used to directly inform healthcare decision making and policy. The information needs for the model require the use of other types of information beyond clinical effectiveness evidence to populate the model's parameters. The purpose of this research study was to explore issues concerned with the identification and use of information for the development of such models.

Methods: Three focus groups were held in February 2011 at the University of Sheffield with thirteen UK HTA experts. Attendees included health economic modelers, information specialists and systematic reviewers. Qualitative framework analysis was used to analyze the focus group data.

Results: Six key themes, with related sub-themes, were identified dealing with decisions and judgments; searching methods; selection and rapid review of evidence; team communication; modeler experience and clinical input and reporting methods. There was considerable overlap between themes.

Conclusions: Key issues raised by the respondents included the need for effective communication and teamwork throughout the model development process, the importance of using clinical experts as well as the need for transparent reporting of methods and decisions.

Objectives: The aim of this work was to provide a comprehensive overview of the evolution of the health technology assessment (HTA) concept in the scientific literature through a scientometric approach.

Methods: A literature search was conducted, by selecting publications, as well as news from the media, containing “health technology assessment” in their title, abstracts, or keywords. We then undertook a bibliometric and network analysis on the corpus of 2,865 publications thus obtained.

Results: Since a first publication in 1978, interest in HTA remained marginal until a turning point in the late 1980s, when growth of the number of publications took off alongside the creation of the U.K.’s NICE agency. Since then, publications have spread across several journals. The ranking of the organizations that publish such articles does not reflect any hegemonic position. However, HTA-related scientific production is strongly concentrated in Commonwealth and Nordic countries. Despite its transnational aspects, research on HTA has been framed within a small number of scientific networks and by a few opinion leaders.

Conclusions: The “career” of the HTA concept may be seen as a scientific-knowledge based institutionalization of a public policy. To succeed in a country, HTA first needs scientific prerequisites, such as an organized scientific community working on the health sector and health services. Then, it appears that the recognition of this research by decision makers plays a key role in the development of the field.

This paper provides a critical overview of several strategies and mechanisms that have been employed by the Program for Appropriate Technology in Health over the past decade to address the unmet needs for health technologies in the developing world. Partnerships between public and private-sector organizations are emphasized in order to share risks, encourage efficiency, and ensure the availability of priority products for health care in resource-poor settings. Incentives for the involvement of the commercial sector, the means to protect the interest of the public sector, and the role of bridging organizations are discussed in the light of the shifting goals of the public sector.

This paper examines the characteristics of the process of innovation as applied to a range of contraceptive technologies. Whereas the understanding of how and why innovation works or does not work has grown in the past few decades in such professional fields as electronics, aviation, and optics, only the first attempts are currently under way in medicine. Borrowing from other fields, this paper proposes a theoretical underpinning to the process of innovation as it would apply to the development of medical technology. Subsequently, it documents this process with regard to contraceptive technology (oral contraceptives, injectables, intrauterine devices, implants, and surgical contraception), providing a framework of first-, second-, and third-generation definitions of development. A number of observations about the importance of certain supply- and demand-side determinants of the direction and rate of medical innovation conclude the essay.

Review of a large data base on 76 patients who had suffered head injuries and whose metabolic changes were being studied demonstrated the variability of their neurological courses and the importance of considering confounding factors in the analysis of such a group. It was apparent that many such patients continue to change neurologically and functionally for long periods of time, and that their ultimate outcome cannot be determined for at least 1 year. The study demonstrates the inherent complexity of a group of patients with head injuries and the need to use sophisticated statistical tools and a computer to demonstrate whether apparent trends are statistically valid in light of confounding factors and variabilities. Failure to take this complexity into account seems to be a major factor in many of the ongoing controversies in research on head injuries. A possible solution to the problem of potential biases introduced by lost patients would be to develop a method to use government records to obtain current addresses for patients involved in federally funded research.

The use of upper gastrointestinal (Gl) fiberoptic endoscopy has spread at different times and rates in Japan than in the United States. Factors that explain this disparity and its effects on patient outcomes are reported. This essay outlines Japanese data in gastroenterology, giving an account of the resources and time that were spent on the development of upper Gl endoscopy in Japan. It also draws implications for the assessment of endoscopy for populations at high risk for gastric cancer.

Clinical genetics services have become an integrated part of health care in nearly all European countries. The emphasis has been on postnatal cytogenetic, biochemical, and DNA diagnosis of congenital disorders, carrier detection, genetic counseling, and prenatal diagnosis. Use has been satisfactory, and very few ethical problems have arisen, apart from moral objections against abortion by minority groups. The progress of human gene mapping is associated with new perspectives in clinical genetics and will enable the identification of people at risk of major adult diseases. This prospect has caused some concern about psychosocial and ethical issues that are being dealt with in different ways in various postindustrial societies. In future decades, however, 95% of the world's population increase will occur in developing countries. In most of these countries, a low per capita income, female illiteracy, low rates of contraceptive use, teenage pregnancy, and religious and traditional cultural factors are major complications of implementing genetic services at a global level. There are, however, some exceptions, which are discussed.

Analysis of epidemiologic studies reveals that even with advances in preventive dentistry, edentulism continues to be a pressing problem especially in a rapidly expanding senior population. As an alternative to traditional removable dentures, dental implants can provide fixed support for crowns and bridges. A recent National Institutes of Health Consensus Development Conference revealed significant growth in implant technology and established that, although a complex treatment alternative, implants can function for 10 years or more. Continued development in basic and clinical research, federal regulations, professional education, public awareness, insurance, and marketing will shape the future of the field.

Background: Several countries have developed policy frameworks allowing timely access to promising health technologies on the condition that additional evidence is generated. However, an important barrier to evidence generation is the lack of structured collaboration among health technology assessment (HTA) agencies.

Objectives: One of the aims of Work Package 7 (WP7) of the European network for Health Technology Assessment (EUnetHTA) Project was to determine the types of structured collaboration that could facilitate evidence generation and to develop a Web-based toolkit to support such collaboration.

Methods: Collaboration modalities were defined by all WP7 Partners. Initial emphasis was on information sharing. Standardized forms for information sharing were developed and tested. An information technology development phase followed with the creation of the Web-based toolkit (Web site).

Results: Three levels of collaboration were agreed on: (i) sharing information, (ii) coordinated action, and (iii) joint action. The Web site allows access to structured and standardized forms for requesting information, posting information in response to a request, and posting information spontaneously. An online database contains all of the information requested or posted. Pilot tests on twenty-one promising technologies were satisfactory.

Conclusions: This new Web site for sharing information on evidence generation should help countries reach robust decisions on the timely adoption of promising health technologies. It will only become fully operational if EUnetHTA Partners supply relevant, accurate, and updated information, and regularly use the Web site.

Objectives: Due to potential advantages (e.g., using all available evidence), Bayesian methods have been proposed to assist healthcare decision making. This review provides a detailed description of how Bayesian methods have been applied to economic evaluations of patient level data. The results serve both as a reference and as a means by which to examine the appropriate application of Bayesian methods to inform decision making.

Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Economic Evaluation databases were searched to identify studies, published up to November 2007, meeting three inclusion criteria: (i) the study conducted an economic evaluation, (ii) sampling uncertainty was incorporated using Bayesian methods, (iii) the likelihood function was informed by patient level data from a single source. Data were collected on key study characteristics (e.g., prior distribution, likelihood function, presentation of uncertainty).

Results: The search identified 366 potentially relevant studies, from which 103 studies underwent full-text review. Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Half of the studies used uninformative priors; most studies incorporated the potential dependence between costs and effects, and presented cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results were sensitive to changes in the priors and likelihoods.

Conclusions: Limited use of informative priors, among the included studies, gives policy makers little guidance on one of the main benefits of Bayesian methods, the ability to integrate all available evidence to capture the uncertainty inherent in decision making.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of calcium chemoprevention post-polypectomy as a substitute or adjunct for surveillance.

Methods: We constructed a Markov model of post-polypectomy adenoma recurrence and colorectal cancer (CRC) development, calibrated to data from prospective chemoprevention trials of fiber, calcium, antioxidants, and aspirin. We modeled four scenarios for 50-year-old patients immediately after polypectomy: (i) natural history with no further intervention; (ii) elemental calcium 1,200 mg/day from age 50–80; (iii) surveillance colonoscopy from age 50–80 every 5 years, or 3 years for large adenoma; (iv) calcium + surveillance. Patients were followed up until age 100 or death.

Results: Calcium was cost-effective compared to natural history ($49,900/life-year gained). However, surveillance was significantly more effective than calcium (18.729 versus 18.654 life-years/patient; 76 percent versus 14 percent reduction in CRC incidence) at an incremental cost of $15,900/life-year gained. Calcium + surveillance yielded a very small benefit (0.0003 incremental life-years/patient) compared with surveillance alone, at a substantial incremental cost of $3,090,000/life-year gained.

Conclusion: Post-polypectomy calcium chemoprevention is unlikely to be a reasonable substitute for surveillance. It may be cost-effective in patients unwilling or unable to undergo surveillance.