Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T04:43:28.741Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Trading Places, Trading Platforms: The Geography of Trade Policy Realignment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2021

Get access

Abstract

What motivates politicians and political parties to shift their positioning on an issue? Focusing on the case of trade policy in countries with advanced economies and plurality electoral systems, I argue that the relative positioning of parties on an existing issue can change even when the preferences of the key actors (voters and politicians) are held constant, and even when party leaders continue to represent the same constituencies. In advanced plurality countries, college-educated voters support free trade, and high-density constituencies are predominantly represented by Left incumbents. As college-educated workers migrate to high-density constituencies in pursuit of higher wages, Left incumbents increasingly embrace free trade, while Right incumbents take more protectionist positions. I provide empirical support for several observable implications of my theory.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation, 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, Greg D. 1997. Abortion: Evidence of an Issue Evolution. American Journal of Political Science 41 (3):718–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahlin, Lina, Andersson, Martin, and Thulin, Per. 2018. Human Capital Sorting: The “When” and “Who” of the Sorting of Talents to Urban Regions. Journal of Regional Science 58 (3):581610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H. 1995. Why Parties? The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Jones, Philip Edward. 2010. Constituents’ Responses to Congressional Roll-Call Voting. American Journal of Political Science 54 (3):583–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, David. 2016. Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. NBER Working Paper w22637. <https://www.nber.org/papers/w22637>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Autor, David. 2019. Work of the Past, Work of the Future. NBER Working Paper w25588. <https://www.nber.org/papers/w25588>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Bailey, Michael. 2001. Quiet Influence: The Representation of Diffuse Interests on Trade Policy, 1983–94. Legislative Studies Quarterly 26 (1):4580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ballard-Rosa, Cameron, Malik, Mashail, Rickard, Stephanie, and Scheve, Kenneth. Forthcoming. The Economic Origins of Authoritarian Values: Evidence from Local Trade Shocks in Great Britain. Comparative Political Studies.Google Scholar
Beck, Paul Allen. 1977. Partisan Dealignment in the Postwar South. American Political Science Review 71 (2):477–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Thad A. 1988. Migration and Politics: The Impact of Population Mobility on American Voting Behavior. University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Burgoon, Brian. 2009. Globalization and Backlash: Polayni's Revenge? Review of International Political Economy 16 (2):145–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Bruce A. 1977. Change in the Southern Electorate. American Journal of Political Science 21 (1):3764.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Brady, David W., and Cogan, John F.. 2002. Out of Step, Out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members’ Voting. American Political Science Review 96 (1):127–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmines, Edward G., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., and Layman, Geoffrey C.. 2006. Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2):464–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caughey, Devin, and Warshaw, Christopher. 2018. Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936–2014. American Political Science Review 112 (2):249–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cerrato, Andrea, Ferrara, Federico Maria, and Ruggieri, Francesco. 2018. Why Does Import Competition Favor Republicans? Available at SSRN 3147169.Google Scholar
Cohen, Marty, Karol, David, Noel, Hans, and Zaller, John. 2009. The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Colantone, Italo, and Stanig, Piero. 2018. The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe. American Journal of Political Science 62 (4):936–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conconi, Paola, Facchini, Giovanni, Steinhardt, Max F., and Zanardi, Maurizio. 2020. The Political Economy of Trade and Migration: Evidence from the US Congress. Economics and Politics 32 (2):250–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, Chris. 2010. A Short History of the Liberal Party: The Road Back to Power. Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coulombe, Serge. 2006. Internal Migration, Asymmetric Shocks, and Interprovincial Economic Adjustments in Canada. International Regional Science Review 29 (2):199223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 1990. Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives in Electoral Systems. American Journal of Political Science 34 (4): 903–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De la Roca, Jorge. 2017. Selection in Initial and Return Migration: Evidence from Moves Across Spanish Cities. Journal of Urban Economics 100:3353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Rebecca. 2016. The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers’ Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980–2000. American Economic Review 106 (3):479524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Dutt, Pushan, and Mitra, Devashish. 2005. Political Ideology and Endogenous Trade Policy: An Empirical Investigation. Review of Economics and Statistics 87 (1):5972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Tilley, James. 2012. How Parties Shape Class Politics: Explaining the Decline of the Class Basis of Party Support. British Journal of Political Science 42 (1):137–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ford, Robert, and Goodwin, Matthew J.. 2014. Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fowler, Anthony. 2020. Partisan Intoxication or Policy Voting? Quarterly Journal of Political Science 15 (2):141–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frendreis, John P. 1989. Migration as a Source of Changing Party Strength. Social Science Quarterly 70 (1):211.Google Scholar
Gaikwad, Nikhar, and Nellis, Gareth. 2017. The Majority-Minority Divide in Attitudes Toward Internal Migration: Evidence from Mumbai. American Journal of Political Science 61 (2):456–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallego, Aina, Buscha, Franz, Sturgis, Patrick, and Oberski, Daniel. 2016. Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects. British Journal of Political Science 46 (3):529–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ganong, Peter, and Shoag, Daniel. 2017. Why Has Regional Income Convergence in the US Declined? Journal of Urban Economics 102:7690.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1990. Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias. American Journal of Political Science 34 (4):1142–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaeser, Edward L., and Gottlieb, Joshua D.. 2009. The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States. Journal of Economic Literature 47 (4):9831028.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, Gene M., and Helpman, Elhanan. 1996. Electoral Competition and Special Interest Politics. Review of Economic Studies 63 (2):265–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens, and Hiscox, Michael J.. 2006. Learning to Love Globalization: Education and Individual Attitudes Toward International Trade. International Organization 60 (2):469–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hakhverdian, Armen. 2010. Political Representation and Its Mechanisms: A Dynamic Left–Right Approach for the United Kingdom, 1976–2006. British Journal of Political Science 40 (4):835–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karol, David. 2009. Party Position Change in American Politics: Coalition Management. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kendall, Chad, and Rekkas, Marie. 2012. Incumbency Advantages in the Canadian Parliament. Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d’économique 45 (4):1560–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kennan, John, and Walker, James R.. 2011. The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions. Econometrica 79 (1):211–51.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Brooks, Stephen G., and Brooks, Deborah Jordan. 2017. Do Partisan Types Stop at the Water's Edge? Manuscript, Harvard University and Dartmouth College.Google Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter, Grande, Edgar, Lachat, Romain, Dolezal, Martin, Bornschier, Simon, and Frey, Timotheos. 2006. Globalization and the Transformation of the National Political Space: Six European Countries Compared. European Journal of Political Research 45 (6):921–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuk, John, Seligsohn, Deborah, and Zhang, Jiakun Jack. 2018. The Partisan Divide in US Congressional Communications After the China Shock. Research Paper No. 2018-03, Twenty-first Century China Center, <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3218738>.CrossRef.>Google Scholar
Kuziemko, Ilyana, and Washington, Ebonya. 2018. Why Did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate. American Economic Review 108 (10):2830–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindley, Joanne, and Machin, Stephen. 2014. Spatial Changes in Labour Market Inequality. Journal of Urban Economics 79:121–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyons, William, and Durant, Robert F.. 1980. Assessing the Impact of Inmigration on a State Political System. Social Science Quarterly 61 (3/4):473–84.Google Scholar
Mayda, Anna Maria, and Rodrik, Dani. 2005. Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist than Others? European Economic Review 49 (6):13931430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCarty, Nolan, and Schickler, Eric. 2018. On the Theory of Parties. Annual Review of Political Science 21:175–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen. 1988. Trading Places: Industries for Free Trade. World Politics 40 (3):350–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Judkins, Benjamin. 2004. Partisanship, Trade Policy, and Globalization: Is There a Left–Right Divide on Trade Policy? International Studies Quarterly 48 (1):95119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin H.. 2011. Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy. International Organization 65 (1):3768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mion, Giordano, and Naticchioni, Paolo. 2009. The Spatial Sorting and Matching of Skills and Firms. Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d’économique 42 (1):2855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moretti, Enrico. 2011. Local Labor Markets. Handbook of Labor Economics 4:12371313.Google Scholar
Moretti, Enrico. 2013. Real Wage Inequality. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5 (1):65103.Google Scholar
Mummolo, Jonathan, and Nall, Clayton. 2017. Why Partisans Do Not Sort: The Constraints on Political Segregation. Journal of Politics 79 (1):4559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Rourke, Kevin H., Sinnott, Richard, David Richardson, J., and Rodrik, Dani. 2001. The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence [with comments and discussion]. Brookings Trade Forum, 157206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, Erica. 2017. Exposure to Offshoring and the Politics of Trade Liberalization: Debate and Votes on Free Trade Agreements in the US House of Representatives, 2001–2006. International Studies Quarterly 61 (2):297311.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pomirchy, Michael, and Schonfeld, Bryan. 2019. Does Responsiveness Stop at the Water's Edge? Examining the Foreign Policy Electoral Connection. Available at SSRN 3436890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rickard, Stephanie J. 2018. Spending to Win: Political Institutions, Economic Geography, and Government Subsidies. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roback, Jennifer. 1982. Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life. Journal of Political Economy 90 (6):1257–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, Tony, and Noriega, Stephen. 2010. Voter Migration as a Source of Electoral Change in the Rocky Mountain West. Political Geography 29 (1):2839.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodden, Jonathan. 2019. Why Cities Lose. Basic Books.Google Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald. 1989. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rosen, Sherwin. 1979. Wage-Based Indexes of Urban Quality of Life. Current Issues in Urban Economics 2:74104.Google Scholar
Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2005. Stability and Rigidity: Politics and Design of the WTO's Dispute Settlement Procedure. American Political Science Review 99 (3):389400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth F., and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2001. What Determines Individual Trade-Policy Preferences? Journal of International Economics 54 (2):267–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlesinger, Joseph A. 1994. Political Parties and the Winning of Office. University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schonfeld, Bryan, and Winter-Levy, Sam. Forthcoming. Policy or Partisanship in the United Kingdom? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brexit. Journal of Politics.Google Scholar
Selten, Reinhard. 1988. Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games. In Models of Strategic Rationality, 131. Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shoch, James. 2001. Trading Blows: Party Competition and US Trade Policy in a Globalizing Era. University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Singer, David Andrew, and Quek, Kai. Forthcoming. Attitudes Toward Internal and Foreign Migration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in China. Public Opinion Quarterly.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, James M. 1994. Safe Seats, Marginal Seats, and Party Platforms: The Logic of Platform Differentiation. Economics and Politics 6 (3):201–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soroka, Stuart N., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2004. Opinion Representation and Policy Feedback: Canada in Comparative Perspective. Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique 37 (3):531–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James A., MacKuen, Michael B., and Erikson, Robert S.. 1995. Dynamic Representation. American Political Science Review 89 (3):543–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trubowitz, Peter. 1998. Defining the National Interest: Conflict and Change in American Foreign Policy. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Tyson, Alec, and Maniam, Shiva. 2016. Behind Trump's Victory: Divisions by Race, Gender, Education. Pew Research Center.Google Scholar
Volkens, Andrea, Lehmann, Pola, Regel, S., et al. 2018. Manifesto Project Dataset. Manifesto Project.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Schonfeld supplementary material

Schonfeld supplementary material

Download Schonfeld supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 397.9 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Schonfeld Dataset

Link