Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 May 2009
Why do states contribute to alliances? Is relative size the principal factor influencing the size of contributions, as many studies suggest, or are perceptions of threat, dependencies on other alliance members, and domestic institutions and policies equally important? These questions hold unusual interest in the wake of the cold war. The end of bipolarity promises more ad hoc coalitions, which will widen opportunities for research on alliance burden-sharing beyond the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). At the same time, because the political fault lines of the cold war have disappeared, there are few accepted political criteria for sharing those security burdens that are perceived collectively.
We thank Isabelle Grunberg, John Odell, and the referees for International Organization for perceptive, valuable comments on earlier drafts of this article. We also thank Maria Toyoda for preparing the tables and figures.
1. The term “most-likely” is from Harry Eckstein, “Case Study and Theory in Political Science,” in Greenstein, Fred and Polsby, Nelson, eds., Handbook of Political Science (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 79–137.Google Scholar In a most-likely case, because the independent variable is at a level that strongly predicts a particular outcome, the outcome variable must occur or the theory is suspect. In a least-likely case, the independent variable is at a level that gives only a weak prediction; a finding that it nonetheless produces the outcome is strong supporting evidence. Eckstein introduces these as an alternative to what he calls “crucial” cases, that is, cases that “must closely fit” a theory if one is to have confidence in its validity or, conversely, “must not fit equally well any rule contrary to that proposed.” Therefore, the strongest possible affirming evidence for a theory is a case where the theory makes only a weak prediction (a least-likely case), the alternative hypotheses make strong predictions in the opposite direction, and the evidence is consistent with the original theory. Conversely, the strongest possible infirming evidence is when a theory makes a strong prediction (a most-likely case), the alternatives also make the same prediction, and all the theories prove to be wrong. In these instances we can neither blame the alternative hypotheses for a theory's failure nor credit them for a theory's success. Such truly crucial cases are rare, and we found none in our study. The nearest instance was Japan's contribution, which fits the alliance-dependence hypothesis despite contrary predictions from the balance-of-threat and collective action hypotheses. But because this case is a most-likely one for the alliance-dependence hypothesis, it falls short of being the strongest possible affirming evidence. See pp. 118–20 for the quotations; emphasis original.Google Scholar
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147. Hamburg DPA broadcast 15 09 1990Google Scholar, in FBIS-WEU 17 09 1990, pp. 8–9.Google Scholar
148. Putnam makes an analogous distinction between voluntary and involuntary defection from international bargains, based on whether central-state actors or domestic actors reject them. See Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics.”
149. By late August when Bush said, “This [conquest of Kuwait] will not stand,” the United States had a rhetorical commitment to a rollback, even though the material capability to implement it took months to put in place.