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Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2009

Robert D. Putnam
Robert D. Putnam
Affiliation:
Professor of Government at Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
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Abstract

Domestic politics and international relations are often inextricably entangled, but existing theories (particularly “state-centric” theories) do not adequately account for these linkages. When national leaders must win ratification (formal or informal) from their constituents for an international agreement, their negotiating behavior reflects the simultaneous imperatives of both a domestic political game and an international game. Using illustrations from Western economic summitry, the Panama Canal and Versailles Treaty negotiations, IMF stabilization programs, the European Community, and many other diplomatic contexts, this article offers a theory of ratification. It addresses the role of domestic preferences and coalitions, domestic political institutions and practices, the strategies and tactics of negotiators, uncertainty, the domestic reverberation of international pressures, and the interests of the chief negotiator. This theory of “two-level games” may also be applicable to many other political phenomena, such as dependency, legislative committees, and multiparty coalitions.

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Articles
Information
International Organization , Volume 42 , Issue 3 , Summer 1988 , pp. 427 - 460
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 1988

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References

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26. To avoid unnecessary complexity, my argument throughout is phrased in terms of a single chief negotiator, although in many cases some of his responsibilities may be delegated to aides. Later in this article I relax the assumption that the negotiator has no independent preferences.

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29. This stipulation is, in fact, characteristic of most real-world ratification procedures, such as House and Senate action on conference committee reports, although it is somewhat violated by the occasional practice of appending “reservations” to the ratification of treaties.

30. New York Times,26 September 1986.

31. For the conception of win-set, see Shepsle, Kenneth A. and Weingast, Barry R., “The Institutional Foundations of Committee Power,” American Political Science Review 81 (03 1987), pp. 85–104CrossRefGoogle Scholar. I am indebted to Professor Shepsle for much help on this topic.

32. To avoid tedium, I do not repeat the “other things being equal” proviso in each of the propositions that follow. Under some circumstances an expanded win-set might actually make practicable some outcome that could trigger a dilemma of collective action. See Crawford, Vincent P., “A Theory of Disagreement in Bargaining,” Econometrica 50 (05 1982), pp. 607–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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38. This discussion implicitly assumes uncertainty about the contours of the win-sets on the part of the Level I negotiators, for if the win-sets were known with certainty, the negotiators would never propose for ratification an agreement that would be rejected.

39. Harrison, Geoffrey W., in Campbell, John C., ed., Successful Negotiation: Trieste 1954 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 62Google Scholar.

40. Schelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1960), pp. 19–28Google Scholar.

41. I am grateful to Lara Putnam for this example. For supporting evidence, see Kaufman, Robert R., “Democratic and Authoritarian Responses to the Debt Issue: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,” International Organization 39 (Summer 1985), pp. 473–503CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

42. Habeeb, W. Mark and Zartman, I. William, The Panama Canal Negotiations (Washington, D.C.: Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, 1986), pp. 40, 42Google Scholar.

43. Several investigators in other fields have recently proposed models of linked games akin to this “two-level” game. Kenneth A. Shepsle and his colleagues have used the notion of “interconnected games” to analyze, for example, the strategy of a legislator simultaneously embedded in two games, one in the legislative arena and the other in the electoral arena. In this model, a given action is simultaneously a move in two different games, and one player maximizes the sum of his payoffs from the two games. See Denzau, Arthur, Riker, William, and Shepsle, Kenneth, “Farquharson and Fenno: Sophisticated Voting and Home Style,” American Political Science Review 79 (12 1985), pp. 1117–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Shepsle, Kenneth, “Cooperation and Institutional Arrangements,” unpublished manuscript, 02 1986Google Scholar. This approach is similar to models recently developed by economists working in the “rational expectations” genre. In these models, a government contends simultaneously against other governments and against domestic trade unions over monetary policy. See, for example, Rogoff, Kenneth, “Can International Monetary Policy Cooperation be Counterproductive,” Journal of International Economics 18 (05 1985), pp. 199–217CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Vaubel, Roland, “A Public Choice Approach to International Organization,” Public Choice 51 (1986), pp. 39–57CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Tsebelis, George (”Nested Games: The Cohesion of French Coalitions,” British Journal of Political Science 18 [04 1988], pp. 145–70)CrossRefGoogle Scholar has developed a theory of “nested games,” in which two alliances play a competitive game to determine total payoffs, while the individual players within each alliance contend over their shares. Sharpf, Fritz (”A Game-Theoretical Interpretation of Inflation and Unemployment in Western Europe,” Journal of Public Policy 7 [1988], pp. 227–257)CrossRefGoogle Scholar interprets macroeconomic policy as the joint outcome of two simultaneous games; in one, the government plays against the unions, while in the other, it responds to the anticipated reactions of the electorate. Alt, James E. and Eichengreen, Barry (”Parallel and Overlapping Games: Theory and an Application to the European Gas Trade,” unpublished manuscript, 11 1987) offer a broader typology of linked games, distinguishing between “parallel” games, in which “the same opponents play against one another at the same time in more than one arena,” and “overlapping” games, which arise “when a particular player is engaged at the same time in games against distinct opponents, and when the strategy pursued in one game limits the strategies available in the other.” Detailed comparison of these various linked-game models is a task for the futureGoogle Scholar.

44. Romer, Thomas and Rosenthal, Howard, “Political Resource Allocation, Controlled Agendas, and the Status Quo,” Public Choice 33 (no. 4, 1978), pp. 27–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45. In more formal treatments, the no-agreement outcome is called the “reversion point.” A given constituent's evaluation of no-agreement corresponds to what Raiffa terms a seller's “walk-away price,” that is, the price below which he would prefer “no-deal.” (Raiffa, Art and Science of Negotiation.) No-agreement is equivalent to what Snyder and Diesing term “breakdown,” or the expected cost of war. (Snyder and Diesing, Conflict Among Nations.)

46. Bailey, Thomas A., Woodrow Wilson and the Great Betrayal (New York: Macmillan, 1945), pp. 16–37Google Scholar.

47. Raiffa notes that “the more diffuse the positions are within each side, the easier it might be to achieve external agreement.” (Raiffa, , Art and Science of Negotiation, p. 12Google Scholar.) For the conventional view, by contrast, that domestic unity is generally a precondition for international agreement, see Artis, Michael and Ostry, Sylvia, International Economic Policy Coordination, Chatham House Papers: 30 (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1986), pp. 75–76Google Scholar.

48. “Meaningful consultation with other nations becomes very difficult when the internal process of decision-making already has some of the characteristics of compacts between quasi-sovereign entities. There is an increasing reluctance to hazard a hard-won domestic consensus in an international forum.” Kissinger, Henry A., “Domestic Structure and Foreign Policy,” in Rosenau, James N., ed., International Politics and Foreign Policy (New York: Free Press, 1969), p. 266Google Scholar.

49. See Wilson, James Q., Political Organization (New York: Basic Books, 1975) on how the politics of an issue are affected by whether the costs and the benefits are concentrated or diffuseGoogle Scholar.

50. Another factor fostering abstention is the greater complexity and opacity of monetary issues; as Winham, Gilbert R. (“Complexity in International Negotiation,” in Druckman, Daniel, ed., Negotiations: A Social-Psychological Perspective [Beverly Hills: Sage, 1977], p. 363) observes, “complexity can strengthen the hand of a negotiator vis-à-vis the organization he represents.”Google Scholar

51. Habeeb and Zartman, Panama Canal Negotiations.

52. Bailey, Wilson and the Great Betrayal.

53. I am grateful to Ernst B. Haas and Robert O. Keohane for helpful advice on this point.

54. Hollick, Ann L., U.S. Foreign Policy and the Law of the Sea (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981), especially pp. 208–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Sebenius, James K., Negotiating the Law of the Sea (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1984), especially pp. 74–78Google Scholar.

55. Raiffa, , Art and Science of Negotiation, p. 175Google Scholar.

56. I am indebted to Lisa Martin and Kenneth Shepsle for suggesting this approach, although they are not responsible for my application of it. Note that this construction assumes that each issue, taken individually, is a “homogeneous” type, not a “heterogeneous” type. Constructing iso-vote curves for heterogeneous-type issues is more complicated.

57. I am grateful to Henry Brady for clarifying this point for me.

58. Gilbert R. Winham, “The Relevance of Clausewitz to a Theory of International Negotiation,” prepared for delivery at the 1987 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.

59. Carter, Jimmy, Keeping Faith: Memoirs of a President (New York: Bantam Books, 1982), p. 225Google Scholar.

60. Winham (see note 37); Twiggs, The Tokyo Round.

61. Walton, and McKersie, , Behavioral Theory of Labor Organizations, p. 321Google Scholar.

62. Artis and Ostry, International Economic Policy Coordination. Of course, whether this is desirable in terms of democratic values is quite another matter.

63. Schelling, , Strategy of Conflict, p. 28Google Scholar.

64. Walton, and McKersie, , Behavioral Theory of Labor Organizations, p. 345Google Scholar.

65. Carter, , Keeping Faith, p. 172Google Scholar. See also Raiffa, , Art and Science of Negotiation, p. 183Google Scholar.

66. The strategic significance of targeting at Level II is illustrated in Conybeare, John, “Trade Wars: A Comparative Study of Anglo-Hanse, Franco-Italian, and Hawley-Smoot Conflicts,” World Politics 38 (10 1985), p. 157CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Retaliation in the Anglo-Hanse trade wars did not have the intended deterrent effect, because it was not (and perhaps could not have been) targeted at the crucial members of the opposing Level II coalition. Compare Snyder, and Diesing, , Conflict Among Nations, p. 552Google Scholar: “If one faces a coercive opponent, but the opponent's majority coalition includes a few wavering members inclined to compromise, a compromise proposal that suits their views may cause their defection and the formation of a different majority coalition. Or if the opponent's strategy is accommodative, based on a tenuous soft-line coalition, one knows that care is required in implementing one's own coercive stretegy to avoid the opposite kind of shift in the other state.”

67. Walton, and McKersie, , Behavioral Theory of Labor Negotiations, p. 319Google Scholar.

68. Velebit, Vladimir, in Campbell, , Trieste 1954, p. 97Google Scholar. As noted earlier, our discussion here assumes that the Level I negotiator wishes to reach a ratifiable agreement; in cases (alluded to later) when the negotiator's own preferences are more hard-line than his constituents, his domestic popularity might allow him to resist Level I agreements.

69. Transaction benefits may be enhanced if a substantive agreement is reached, although sometimes leaders can benefit domestically by loudly rejecting a proffered international deal.

70. Snyder, and Diesing, , Conflict Among Nations, pp. 516, 522–23Google Scholar. Analogous misperceptions in Anglo-American diplomacy are the focus of Neustadt, Richard E., Alliance Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1970)Google Scholar.

71. Synder, and Diesing, , Conflict Among Nations, p. 517Google Scholar.

72. I am grateful to Robert O. Keohane for pointing out the impact of uncertainty on the expected value of proposals.

73. Zartman, I. William, The 50% Solution (Garden City, N.J.: Anchor Books, 1976), p. 14Google Scholar. The present analysis assumes that constituents are myopic about the other side's Level II, an assumption that is not unrealistic empirically. However, a fully informed constituent would consider the preferences of key players on the other side, for if the current proposal lies well within the other side's win-set, then it would be rational for the constituent to vote against it, hoping for a second-round proposal that was more favorable to him and still ratifiable abroad; this might be a reasonable interpretation of Senator Lodge's position in 1919 (Bailey, Wilson and the Great Betrayal). Consideration of such strategic voting at Level II is beyond the scope of this article.

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75. Hiss, Dieter, “Weltwirtschaftsgipfel: Betrachtungen eines Insiders [World Economic Summit: Observations of an Insider],” in Frohn, Joachim and Staeglin, Reiner, eds., Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (Berlin: Duncker and Humblot, 1980), pp. 286–87Google Scholar.

76. On cognitive and communications explanations of international cooperation, see, for example, Haas, Ernst B., “Why Collaborate? Issue-Linkage and International Regimes,” World Politics 32 (04 1980), pp 357–405Google Scholar; Cooper, Richard N., “International Cooperation in Public Health as a Prologue to Macroeconomic Cooperation,” Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics 44 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1986)Google Scholar; and Zartman, 50% Solution, especially Part 4.

77. Henning, , Macroeconomic Diplomacy in the 1980s, pp. 62–63Google Scholar.

78. This is the approach used to analyze the Anglo-Chinese negotiations over Hong Kong in de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, Newman, David, and Rabushka, Alvin, Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1985)Google Scholar.

79. For overviews of this literature, see Moe, Terry M., “The New Economics of Organization,” American Journal of Political Science 28 (11 1984), pp. 739–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pratt, John W. and Zeckhauser, Richard J., eds., Principals and Agents: The Structure of Business (Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press, 1985)Google Scholar; and Barry M. Mitnick, “The Theory of Agency and Organizational Analysis,” prepared for delivery at the 1986 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. This literature is only indirectly relevant to our concerns here, for it has not yet adequately addressed the problems posed by multiple principals (or constituents, in our terms). For one highly formal approach to the problem of multiple principals, see Bernheim, R. Douglas and Whinston, Michael D., “Common Agency,” Econometrica 54 (07 1986), pp. 923–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

80. Hillman, “Mutual Influence,” and Spaventa, “Two Letters of Intent.”

81. This power of the chief negotiator is analogous to what Shepsle and Weingast term the “penultimate” or “ex post veto” power of the members of a Senate-House conference committee. (Shepsle and Weingast, “Institutional Foundations of Committee Power.”)

82. Bailey, , Wilson and the Great Betrayal, quotation at p. 15Google Scholar.

83. Strong, Robert A. and Zeringue, Marshal, “The Neutron Bomb and the Atlantic Alliance,” presented at the 1986 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, p. 9Google Scholar.

84. Zartman, I. William, “Reality, Image, and Detail: The Paris Negotiations, 1969–1973,” in Zartman, , 50% Solution, pp. 372–98Google Scholar.

85. Brzezinski, Zbigniew, Power and Principle (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1983), p. 136Google Scholar, as quoted in Habeeb, and Zartman, , Panama Canal Negotiations, pp. 39–40Google Scholar.

86. Harrison, in Campbell, , Trieste 1954, p. 67Google Scholar.

87. Huntington, Samuel P., “Transnational Organizations in World Politics,” World Politics 25 (04 1973), pp. 333–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence; Neustadt, Alliance Politics.

88. Crane, Barbara, “Policy Coordination by Major Western Powers in Bargaining with the Third World: Debt Relief and the Common Fund,” International Organization 38 (Summer 1984), pp. 399–428CrossRefGoogle Scholar.