Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T09:32:28.028Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Emotion and Strategy in the Korean War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 April 2013

Jonathan Mercer*
Affiliation:
University of Washington, Seattle. E-mail: mercer@uw.edu
Get access

Abstract

What makes a diplomatic or military signal credible? In strategic settings where deception is possible, rational actors' interpretations rely on their beliefs, intuition, and imagination—they rely on emotion. Two properties of emotion—as an assimilation mechanism and its use as evidence—are key to addressing four strategic problems. First, emotion explains why actors worry needlessly about their reputations. Second, emotion is important to understanding costly signals. Third, emotion explains radical changes in preferences. Fourth, emotion sharpens understanding of strategic problems without being self-invalidating: common knowledge of emotion's effects do not always change those effects. Understanding how rational actors think requires turning to emotion. Evidence from the Korean War captures strengths and weaknesses of competing perspectives.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2013

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acheson, Dean. 1953. Papers of Dean Acheson: Princeton Seminars. Independence, Mo.: Harry S. Truman Library.Google Scholar
Acheson, Dean. 1969. Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Adenauer, Konrad. 1966. Memoirs 1945–1953. Translated by von Oppen, Beate Ruhm. Chicago: Henry Regnery.Google Scholar
Barnes, Robert. 2010. Branding an Aggressor: The Commonwealth, the United Nations and Chinese Intervention in the Korean War, November 1950–January 1951. Journal of Strategic Studies 33 (2):231–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barsky, Adam, Kaplan, Seth A., and Beal, Daniel J.. 2011. Just Feelings? The Role of Affect in the Formation of Organizational Fairness Judgments. Journal of Management 37 (1):248–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bechara, Antoine, and Damasio, Antonio R.. 2005. The Somatic Marker Hypothesis: A Neural Theory of Economic Decision. Games and Economic Behavior 52 (2):336–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beisner, Robert L. 2006. Dean Acheson: A Life in the Cold War. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Belmonte, Laura. 1995. Anglo-American Relations and the Dismissal of MacArthur. Diplomatic History 19 (4):641–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bem, Daryl J. 1972. Self-Perception Theory. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, edited by Berkowitz, Leonard Vol. 6, 162. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Bleiker, Roland, and Hutchison, Emma. 2008. Fear No More: Emotions and World Politics. Review of International Studies 34 (suppl. S1):115–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bradley, Omar N., and Blair, Clay. 1983. A General's Life: An Autobiography. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Casey, Steven. 2008. Selling the Korean War: Propaganda, Politics, and Public Opinion in the United States, 1950–1953. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Thomas J. 1996. Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947–1958. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Christensen, Thomas J. 2011. Worse than a Monolith: Alliance Politics and Problems of Coercive Diplomacy in Asia. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Clore, Gerald L., and Gasper, Karen. 2000. Feeling Is Believing: Some Affective Influences on Belief. In Emotions and Beliefs: How Feelings Influence Thoughts, edited by Frijda, Nico H., Manstead, Antony S.R., and Bem, Sacha, 1044. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Crane, Conrad C. 2000. To Avert Impending Disaster: American Military Plans to Use Atomic Weapons During the Korean War. Journal of Strategic Studies 23 (2):7288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Damasio, Antonio R. 1994. Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Dawes, Robyn M. 1998. Behavioral Decision Making and Judgment. In The Handbook of Social Psychology, edited by Gilbert, Daniel T., Fiske, Susan T., Lindzey, Gardner, 4th ed., and Vol. 1, 497548. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Dockrill, Saki. 1991. Britain's Policy for West German Rearmament, 1950–1955. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Duelfer, Charles A., and Dyson, Stephen Benedict. 2011. Chronic Misperception and International Conflict: The U.S.-Iraq Experience. International Security 36 (1):73100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elsey Papers. 1950a. Telegram Extract, John Foster Dulles and John Allison to Dean Acheson and Dean Rusk, 25 June 1950. Available at ⟨http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/koreanwar/documents/index.php?documentdate=1950-06-25&documentid=ki-1-6&pagenumber=1⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
Elsey Papers. 1950b. Notes Regarding Meeting with Congressional Leaders, 27 June 1950. Available at ⟨http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/koreanwar/documents/index.php?documentdate=1950-06-27&documentid=ki-2-40&pagenumber=1⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1986. Introduction. In Rational Choice, edited by Elster, Jon, 133. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 2004. Emotions and Rationality. In Feelings and Emotions: The Amsterdam Symposium, edited by Manstead, Antony S.R., Frijda, Nico, and Fischer, Agneta, 3048. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eznack, Lucile. 2011. Crises as Signals of Strength: The Significance of Affect in Close Allies' Relationships. Security Studies 20 (2):238–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrar-Hockley, Anthony. 1990. The British Part in the Korean War. Vol. 1, . London: HMSO.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferrell, Robert H., ed. 1983. Dear Bess: The Letters from Harry to Bess Truman, 1910–1959. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Fielder, Klaus, and Bless, Herbert. 2000. The Formation of Beliefs at the Interface of Affective and Cognitive Processes. In Emotions and Beliefs: How Feelings Influence Thoughts, edited by Frijda, Nico H., Manstead, Antony S. R., and Bem, Sacha, 144–70. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Granieri, Ronald J. 2003. The Ambivalent Alliance: Konrad Adenauer, the CDU/CSU, and the West, 1949–1966. New York: Berghahn Books.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grey, Jeffrey. 1988. The Commonwealth Armies and the Korean War: An Alliance Study. Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (2):175200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haidt, Jonathan. 2012. The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. New York: Pantheon Books.Google Scholar
Halberstam, David. 2007. The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War. New York: Hyperion.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenkins, Adrianna C., and Mitchell, Jason P.. 2011. How Has Cognitive Neuroscience Contributed to Social Psychological Theory? In Social Neuroscience: Toward Understanding the Underpinnings of the Social Mind, edited by Todorov, Alexander, Fiske, Susan T., and Prentice, Deborah A., 313. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1970. The Logic of Images in International Relations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1980. The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (4):563–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jian, Chen. 1994. China's Road to the Korean War: The Making of the Sino-American Confrontation. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Jian, Chen. 2004. In the Name of Revolution: China's Road to the Korean War Revisited. In The Korean War in World History, edited by Stueck, William, 93125. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Jones, Matthew. 2010. After Hiroshima: The United States, Race and Nuclear Weapons in Asia, 1945–1965. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel. 2000a. Preface. In Choices, Values, and Frames, edited by Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos, ix–xvii. New York: Cambridge University Press, Russell Sage Foundation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel. 2000b. New Challenges to the Rationality Assumption. In Choices, Values, and Frames, edited by Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos, 758–74. New York: Cambridge University Press, Russell Sage Foundation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, and Krueger, Alan B.. 2006. Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-Being. Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (1):324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kier, Elizabeth. 2010. War and Reform: Gaining Labor's Compliance on the Homefront. In In War's Wake: International Conflict and the Fate of Liberal Democracy, edited by Kier, Elizabeth and Krebs, Ronald R., 139–61. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Donggil. 2010. The Crucial Issues of the Early Cold War: Stalin and the Chinese Civil War. Cold War History 10 (2):185202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, William. 1950. The Diaries of William Lyon Mackenzie King. Available at ⟨http://collectionscanada.gc.ca/databases/king/index-e.html⟩. Accessed on 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
Kirkpatrick, Ivone. 1959. The Inner Circle: The Memoirs of Ivone Kirkpatrick. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew H. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, Deborah Welch. 1985. Origins of Containment: A Psychological Explanation. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, Deborah Welch. 2003. Truman and the Berlin Blockade: The Role of Intuition and Experience in Good Foreign Policy Judgment. In Good Judgment in Foreign Policy: Theory and Application, edited by Renshon, Stanley A. and Larson, Deborah Welch, 127–52. Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Larson, Deborah Welch. 2007. Review. In Dean Acheson: A Life in the Cold War Roundtable, H-Diplo Roundtable Review, edited by Thomas Maddux (14 March 2007), 14–19. Available at ⟨http://www.h-net.org/~diplo/roundtables/PDF/Beisner-AchesonRoundtable.pdf⟩. Accessed on 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
Larson, Deborah Welch. 2011. The Origins of Commitment: Truman and West Berlin. Journal of Cold War Studies 13 (1):180212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 1981. Between Peace and War. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matray, James I. 2011. Korea's War at Sixty: A Survey of the Literature. Cold War History 11 (1):99129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
May, Ernest R. 1962. The Nature of Foreign Policy: The Calculated Versus the Axiomatic. Daedalus 91 (4):653–67.Google Scholar
McDermott, Rose. 2004. The Feeling of Rationality: The Meaning of Neuroscientific Advances for Political Science. Perspectives on Politics 2 (4):691706.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMahon, Robert J. 1981. Colonialism and Cold War: The United States and the Struggle for Indonesian Independence, 1945–49. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2005. Rationality and Psychology in International Politics. International Organization 59 (1):77106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2010. Emotional Beliefs. International Organization 64 (1):131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2012. Audience Costs Are Toys. Security Studies 21 (3):398404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Midtgaard, Kristine. 2011. National Security and the Choice of International Humanitarian Aid. Denmark and the Korean War, 1950–1953. Journal of Cold War Studies 13 (2):148–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Millett, Allan R. 2010. The War for Korea, 1950–1951: They Came from the North. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.Google Scholar
Ochsner, Kevin N., and Lieberman, Matthew D.. 2001. The Emergence of Social Cognitive Neuroscience. American Psychologist 56 (9):717–34.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ovodenko, Alexander. 2007. (Mis)interpreting Threats: A Case Study of the Korean War. Security Studies 16 (2):254–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paige, Glenn D. 1968. The Korean Decision. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Parsons, Craig. 2003. A Certain Idea of Europe. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C. 2011. Before Hegemony: Generalized Trust and the Creation and Design of International Security Organizations. International Organization 65 (2):243–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosen, Stephen P. 2005. War and Human Nature. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schnabel, James F., and Watson, Robert J.. 1979. The History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Policy: The Korean War, Vol. 3, Part 1. Wilmington, Del.: Scholarly Resources.Google Scholar
Shen, Zhihua. 2010. China and the Dispatch of the Soviet Air Force: The Formation of the Chinese-Soviet-Korean Alliance in the Early Stage of the Korean War. Journal of Strategic Studies 33 (2):211–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav L. 2010. Feigning Weakness. International Organization 64 (3):357–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stairs, Denis. 1974. The Diplomacy of Constraint: Canada, the Korean War, and the United States. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stueck, William. 1981. The Road to Confrontation: American Policy Toward China and Korea, 1947–1950. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Stueck, William. 1995. The Korean War: An International History. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stueck, William. 2002. Rethinking the Korean War: A New Diplomatic and Strategic History. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stueck, William, and Yi, Boram. 2010. “An Alliance Forged in Blood”: The American Occupation of Korea, the Korean War, and the U.S.-South Korean Alliance. Journal of Strategic Studies 33 (2):177209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E. 1999. Theory-Driven Reasoning About Possible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions? American Journal of Political Science 43 (2):335–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization 61 (4):821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Twomey, Christopher P. 2010. The Military Lens: Doctrinal Difference and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 1949. Consequences of U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Korea in Spring, 1949. 28 February 1949. Available at ⟨http://www.foia.cia.gov/KoreanWar/EstimatesMisc/NIEEstimates/1949-02-28.pdf⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 1950a. Current Capabilities of the Northern Korean Regime. 19 June 1950. Available at ⟨http://www.foia.cia.gov/KoreanWar/EstimatesMisc/NIEEstimates/1950-06-19.pdf⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 1950b. Propaganda Possibilities in the Korean Situation, CIA Research Reports Japan, Korea, and the Security of Asia, 1946–1976: Intelligence Memorandum, Number 334, 2 October 1950. Reel 4, 54–74.Google Scholar
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 1950c. Estimate of Intentions in FE. 12 October 1950. Available at ⟨http://www.foia.cia.gov/KoreanWar/EstimatesMisc/NIEEstimates/1950-10-12.pdf⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950a. Intelligence Estimate, 25 June 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 148–54. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950b. Memorandum of Conversations, by Mr. Charles P. Noyes, Adviser on Security Council Affairs, United States Mission at the United Nations, 25 June 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 144–47. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950c. The Ambassador in France (Bruce) to the Secretary of State, 26 June 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 175–76. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950d. The United States Representative at the United Nations (Austin) to the Secretary of State, 26 June 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 188–93. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950e. The Ambassador in the Netherlands (Chapin) to the Secretary of State, 26 June 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 185–86. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950f. Memorandum of Conversation, by Mr. John M. Allison of the United States Delegation to the United Nations General Assembly, 4 October 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 868–69. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950g. The Secretary of State to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, 6 November 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 1050–53. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950h. The Secretary of State to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, 24 November 1950. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950. Vol. 7, , 1228–29. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of State. 1950i. Acheson Papers, Memorandum of Conversation, 26 June 1950. Available at ⟨http://www.trumanlibrary.org/whistlestop/study_collections/koreanwar/documents/index.php?documentdate=1950-06-26&documentid=ki-12-3&pagenumber=1⟩. Accessed 12 February 2012.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weathersby, Kathryn. 2004. The Soviet Role in the Korean War. In The Korean War in World History, edited by Stueck, William, 6192. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Werth, Alexander. 1956. France 1940–1955. New York: Henry Holt.Google Scholar
Willis, F. Roy. 1968. France, Germany, and the New Europe 1945–1967. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Zaki, Jamil, and Ochsner, Kevin. 2011. You, Me, and My Brain: Self and Other Representations in Social Cognitive Neuroscience. In Social Neuroscience: Toward Understanding the Underpinnings of the Social Mind, edited by Todorov, Alexander, Fiske, Susan T., and Prentice, Deborah A., 1439. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Li. 2011. Reputation and War. Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
Zhang, Shu Guang. 1995. Mao's Military Romanticism: China and the Korean War, 1950–1953. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.Google Scholar