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Intervention analysis of political disturbances, market shocks, and policy initiatives in international commodity markets

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2009

Karen A. Mingst  and
Robert E. Stauffer
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Extract

Little is known about the impact of international organizations. Neither a rudimentary theory of IGO impact exists nor are there sufficient case studies to develop meaningful generalizations. To answer the question whether they make a difference, the effect of intergovernmental organization (IGO) policies must be evaluated.

Type
Articles
Information
International Organization , Volume 33 , Issue 1 , Winter 1979 , pp. 105 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation and Cambridge University Press 1979

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References

1 For suggestions on research designs, see Hoole, Francis W., “Evaluating the Impact of International Organizations,” International Organizational, 3 (Summer 1977): 541–563.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 Bergsten, C. Fred, “The Threat is Real,” Foreign Policy 14 (Spring 1974): 84–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3 For example, Zuhayr, Mikdashi, “Collusion Could Work,” Foreign Policy 14 (Spring 1974): 57–68Google Scholar; Stephen, Krasner, “Oil is the Exception,” Foreign Policy 14 (Spring 1974): 83.Google Scholar

4 Box, G. E. and Jenkins, G. M., Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (San Francisco: Holden-Day, Inc., 1970).Google Scholar

5 Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr, “On Analyzing the Effects of Policy Interventions: Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao vs. Structural Equations Models,” unpublished paper, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (12 1974), p. 43. Hibbs concludes, “… the causally naive Box-Tiao [Jenkins] scheme—which merely requires times-series observations on endogenous variables, knowledge of the time-spans of external interventions, and some hunches about the form of endogenous responses—would appear to have no serious rival.”Google Scholar

6 The specifics of the models are elaborated by the authors in “Modeling Equilibrium Trends and Interventions in Commodity Markets” (in revision). In all cases, price effects are expressed in 1967 dollars; the U.S. Wholesale Commodity Price Index was used to deflate the price series.

7 Trade in Primary Commodities. Conflict or Cooperation? A Tripartite Report (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1974), p. 28.Google Scholar

8 International Tin Council, Statistical Bulletin (09 1968–02 1969).Google Scholar

9 International Tin Council, Notes in Tin 183 (04 1976).Google Scholar

10 The development of CIPEC organization is analyzed in a paper by the authors, “Cooperation or Illusion: An Examination of the Inter-Governmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries,” International Organization 30, 2 (Spring 1976): 263–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 Burrows, J. C., “Econometric Modeling of Metal and Mineral Industries,” in Mineral Materials Modeling: A State-of-the-Art Review, Vogely, W. A., ed. (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1975), pp. 121–132.Google Scholar

12 Prinsky, Robert J., “Financing of Price Supports for Copper Is Discussed at Two Geneva Conferences,” Wall Street Journal, 18 03 1977, p. 13.Google Scholar

13 Banks, F. E., “An Econometric Model of the World Tin Economy: A Comment,” Econometrica 40 (07, 1972): 749–752.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

14 A good source for post World War II events is Walter LaFeber, America, Russia, and the Cold War, 1945–1971, 2nd ed. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1972)Google Scholar. For particular attention to the Vietnam buildup, see Gallucci, Robert L., Neither Peace Nor Honor. The Politics of American Military Policy in Vietnam (Baltimore, Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975).Google Scholar

15 See Cooper, Richard N. and Lawrence, Robert Z., “The 1972–75 Commodity Boom,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 3 (1975): 671–723.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16 For a more detailed account, see Marwan, Iskandar, The Arab Oil Question (Beirut: Middle East Economic Consultants, 1974)Google Scholar and Middle East Economic Survey 17, 48 (20 09 1974): iii.Google Scholar

17 For more specific information, see United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, Bulletin 650 (1970).

18 For details of these events, see Metals Week, Metal Bulletin, and Copper Studies for the appropriate time period.